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PODCAST: We Welcome Special Guest J.J. HYSELL

Horse Racing Radar
Rich Bieglmeier
Rich Bieglmeier is a Staff writer for Horse Racing Radar
Friday, July 16, 2021
Sportswriter and more importantly, horse racing fan, J J Hysell stops by to discuss all things Monmouth. She and the crew talk about the impact of no whips at Monmouth and no Lasix in stakes races.  JJ also shares her feelings on how horse racing could be pushing horseplayers to the side and believes it's a mistake.

And, as always, JJ, Terry, Tom, Shawn and Rich make their picks for the Haskell, the United Nations Stakes and the Molly Pitcher Stakes at Monmouth Park.

Make sure you follow JJ Hysell on Twitter at: https://twitter.com/trifectabox


LISTEN:



WATCH:



THE PICKS:

Terry "Hollywood" Hay's Handicapping

Race  10

Race scenario:  #2 Mrs. Danvers and #5 Bank Sting will go to the front. #1 Our Super Freak and #3 Vault will be in mid pack and close coming into the stretch. #7 Water White will close from a little farther back and get into the exotics. I think #1 Our Super Freak.

#1 – Our Super Freak is coming from out of the Rail post which is winning at 27% clip – She has the Highest speed figure at today's distance and her Dirt Speed is among today's starters is one of the Best (tie) - Sharp 4F workout (Jul-10)

#3 -        Vault likes the distance finishing in the money 90% of time, winning 55% of those entries. She has a great Trainer /Jockey combination (Brad Cox- Tyler Gaffalione).

#5 – Bank Sting has won four races in a row. She has the Highest last race speed rating in the race. She can run on top or come from behind.

#2 -        Miss Danvers Early speed running style helps her chances and she should improve at the shorter distance.

#7 – Water White has been competing against Grade 1 and 2 horses and ran a good second in a Grade 2 contest, "The Ruffian Stakes" receiving a 95 speed rating.

Race 11

Race scenario: Several horses will go to the lead, including #2 Epic Bromance, #6 Winters Back and #10 Tribhuvan and try to go all the way. #1 Arklow will be behind the leaders and close at the end to win.

#1 – Arklow has won two races in a row and is going for a hat trick. He has the Best Turf Speed among today's starters – He has a good combination of Trainer/Jockey for today's contest. (Brad Cox) and jockey - (Florent Geroux).

#10 – Tribhuvan has the highest speed rating last race. He likes the turf winning four out of thirteen starts finishing 69% of the time in the money.

#6 – Winters Back is having a good career finishing in the money 75% of time, winning 38% of those entries. He has a Hot Trainer in last 14 days (3 2-0-0/Todd Pletcher).

#2 – Epic Bromance likes the distance winning his only start at today's distance. He has several good works including a Sharp 5F workout (Jul-08- 5f ft :59:3 H 1/17)

Race 12

Race scenario:  #1 Following Sea and #6 Midnight Bourbon will go for the lead. #3 Mandaloun and #4 Hot Rod Charlie will sit just behind the leaders and will close at the end to try and win the race. #3 Mandaloun will outrun #4 Hot Rod Charlie to win.

#3 – Mandaloun has finished 85% of the time in the money during his career, winning 57% of those races. He has finished 80% of the time in the money this year, winning 40-% of those races. He likes the distance and the track.

#4 – Hot Rod Charlie has the highest per race earnings in the race. His early speed running style will help his chances. The shorter distance should also help his chances. He has the Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today's starters.

#1 – Following Sea has won two out of three career starts, finishing second in the third one. He is on the rail which is winning at 22% clip.

#6 – Midnight Bourbon has finished 75% in the money, winning 25% in his career. He has agood jockey (Paco Lopez). And a hot trainer Steven Asmussen last 7 days (8 2-2-1).

Play: $.50 Pick 3-Cost: $40.00

·         Race 10: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7

·         Race 11: 1, 2, 6, 10

·         Race 12: 1, 3, 4, 6

Race 10: $.50 Trifecta Box-1, 2, 3, 5, 7 - Cost: $30.00

Race 11: $.50 Trifecta Box-1, 2, 6, 10 -   Cost: $12.00

Race 12: $6.00 Exacta 3 with, 1, 4, 6-     Cost: $18.00


Swiss Army Shawn's Selections

RACE 10

RACE SUMMARY:   There is a lot of speed in here and  horses that want to sit close to the pace. I expect a horse from mid pack to close and win the race.

#3 Vault- She should be able to sit mid pack right behind the leaders and get up from there.  She had won 2 in a row before last race. That was too tough for her as Letruska was the winner of that tough race. She owns a track record at Penn National going 139.55 for a Mile and 70 yards in November of 2019. I talked to jockeys Tyler Conner and Julio Hernandez who said you have to time your move right with her because her move is short and if you make your move too quick, she will hang coming down the stretch. Julio had a lot of success on this horse winning 5 of 7 on her with a second and really likes her.  Vault does well at this distance in the exacta 5 of 7 races.

#1 Our Super Freak- You have to use this horse for exotics but is hard to trust to put on top. 9 of 25 lifetime races she has finished 2nd. Should be close to the pace especially breaking from the rail. Last time out lost to Vault time before lost to Monomoy Girl by only 2 lengths.

#2 Mrs. Danvers- She can run upfront or come from mid pack. She has been in the exacta 7 of 11 lifetime races. First time Paco Lopez gets on her which could really help her because we know he will be aggressive.

Plays:
$1 pk3 cost $16 1,2,3,5/6,10/3,4    $
20 win #3  
$1 Exacta box key 1,3/1,2,3,5                                        

RACE 11

RACE SUMMARY:   Looks like the #6 Winters Back and the #10 Tribhuvan will go for the lead. Both will be dangerous in here with a comfortable pace. The only other one that will try and go is #2 Epic Bromance. I just don't think he is fast enough to get to the lead.  #1 Arklow will be flying late.

#10 Tribhuvan- Has the speed to get over and possibly go right to the front. I like the fact this horse doesn't need the lead to win. Looked at other horses and if they came out equal, I decided this one because of Prat who is just amazing on turf. Did I mention Chad Brown is the trainer too?  He has won 2 of the last 3 races. Last race he finished 2nd to Domestic Spending.

#6 Winters Back- Probably another one that should be on the pace. I do like that this horse is really sharp and also doesn't need the lead to win.  In his career has finished in the exacta 6 of 8 races.  This is his toughest test yet. He did finish second at Monmouth with no whip over a month ago.

#1 Arklow – Will be the Flying late. A couple issues will there be enough pace? Next this horse has struggled in Grade 1's. In 9 career Grade 1 races has won once and finished second once. Battle tested yes but the results are just not there.

Plays:
$20 win #10 $
1 tri box 1,6,10

RACE 12                                

RACE SUMMARY:  Three horses will go for the lead or be the three up front #1 Following Sea, #4 Hot Rod Charlie, and #6 Midnight Bourbon. #3 Mandaloun will be the horse closing the best at the end.

#3 Mandaloun- He will be coming late and that seems to be the best in these races without the whip. Has also already run at Monmouth this year.  It's possible that #4 Hot Rod Charlie and #6 Midnight Bourbon hook up and set it up for #3 Mandaloun. I like that Florent Geroux has been on him all his 7 career races.

#4 Hot Rod Charlie – I'm concerned if he goes early, he gets in a speed duel. If he sits back, can he ever catch up and go by #6 Midnight Bourbon and hold off #3 Midnight Bourbon.  Keeps getting better as Beyer number stays the same or usually improves each race. Last race was a 108 so that will be hard to top.

#6 Midnight Bourbon- First time getting Paco Lopez aboard and it could work as Paco will be aggressive to get this horse to the lead. Has the longest layoff of all these horses as he has been off for 2 months.

Plays: $18 win #3 $1 TRI 3,4/3,4/ 1,2,5,6,7


40 to 1 Tom's Tips

Race 10 – not a very good field of mainly grade 3 type horses plus lesser. The grade status maybe changed next year to listed because that's what we have here. The is plenty of speed and pace in this race. Bajan Girl and Bank Sting will jump out for the lead with a large group right behind Graceful Princess, Our Super Freak, Mrs. Danvers, Water White and Thankful with Vault and Reina La Kelsey trailing. The jockeys will need to be within 3 lengths of the lead because the speed bias is 88% in 26 races for the winner. With the average length behind being less than 2 lengths.

9 – Graceful Princess – her last race at Delaware was not great. But I am going to toss this race. Off-Track, reduced field and stuck on the rail for most of the race. She tried to establish position early but could only manage to get over to the rail. The rail was not the place to be. On the turn, she was behind a tiring front runner and the jockey backed off her. Her race before was a neck loss in a grade 3 at Aqueduct. She appears to want a fast track and has 3 runs over sloppy with nothing to show for it. Her past wins were in optional claimer or allowance races with 12 starts and 2 wins so this is a step up.

6 – Bajan Girl – was the favorite in the last race (same race as Graceful Princess) and first time over the sloppy was not good. Trying to make the lead, she was out gunned by a longshot to sit second. Battled for the first part of the race and then backed off, stuck on a dead rail. She ran in a grade 1 the start before and finished an ok fourth. She will be on or just off the lead here. It's interesting that Brad Cox has an entry, but Florent Geroux chose to ride this horse instead, a horse he has never ridden.

2 – Mrs. Danvers – has a chance to get a piece here. She's a grade 3 winner but that was in late November at Aqueduct.

Race 11 – in our first race, we are handicapping, there is a solid speed bias. In this turf event, post bias could play a role. Winters Back, Tribhuvan and Epic Bromance will jump for the lead with a group of 3 behind and the rest settling in for the run to the first turn. Movement at the midpoint in the race with a few moving and the pretenders begin to give away. Serve the King and Arklow will move forward but is there enough time to catch the front runners?

10 – Tribhuvan – outside post with some inside speed, he will be used to get the lead early. Now will he have enough to finish? I think so because his last 3 races have been very good. He had the outside post at Belmont in last race, got the lead and lost to Domestic Spending when he got him at the 1/16 pole. Still finished second. He won in a grade 2 at Belmont. If he gets a clear run, he wins. Flaven Prat has the first-time ride and that for me improves his chances for Chad Brown.

6 – Master Piece – since coming from Chile, he's raced in 2 grade 1's and in an allowance. He did what I like to see in winning the allowance race at Keeneland as a 50 cent favorite. The grade 1's need will need to show more and here's a good chance. He's last race, he tried to follow Domestic Spending from the back of the pack about 12 lengths off the lead. Forget it. He moves inside about 3 from the inside and continued on. He is going to improve off that race.

1 – Arklow – late moving 7-year-old has won his last 2. These were in grade 2 and 3 races. He will be on track late to catch them but is he still a grade 1 type winner?

Race 12 – Hot Rod Charlie will go and get the lead for everyone to follow him around. Midnight Bourbon will be closes with the balance of the field figuring out where to go. Mandaloun will begin his move forward with Following Sea and Pickin' Time saving ground to get position down the backstretch. Midnight Bourbon will try and fail to get to the leader with other closing up, but our winner will keep going on.

4 – Hot Rod Charlie – with little other front running horses in this race, he will be on the lead. One of the longshots may try and stay with him but he has the ability to settle and run on. Flavien Prat has ridden the horse to victory in the past. He's the favorite and I don't see anyone getting by him.

6 – Midnight Bourbon – will be on the heels of Hot Rod Charlie but will not get by him. He has enough to hold off Mandaloun for second.

3 – Mandaloun – has seen the backend of Hot Rod Charlie before but ran a nice race last out in prep here. He beat a stakes winner last out and had to fight every inch of the way to get the win.


Rich's Ranks

Race 10

5 Bank Sting      

3 Vault 

1 Our Super Freak           

2 Mrs Danvers

Race 11

1 Arklow

10 Tribhuvan

8 Master Piece

3 Serve the King

Race 12

3 Mandaloun

4 Hot Rod Charlie

1 Following Sea

2 Antigravity


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