International Racing Horse Racing Picks – Saturday and Sunday August 7 and 8 2021
Analysis for Group Races at Cork, Curragh, and Newmarket
22 to 1 Tom's International Tips
Cork 4:20 Race 6
1m4f Irish Stallion Farms EBF Give Thanks Stakes (Group 3) (3yo+)
11 – Willow – Draw 11 – when thrown in against the heavyweights at the group 1 level, she has managed to get a fourth behind the top 3-year filly Snowfall. Last out, she was sitting second/third most of the race, when asked to go, she improved then didn't finish losing to places in the process. Some class relief maybe all she needs to put a winning effort. Trained by Aiden O'Brien, this US bred filly has run some better races at 3. He gets a lot of weight from the favorite, 9-1 for her and the favorite at 10-0.
4 – Federica Sophia – Draw 10 - a useful type that only has won a maiden race. Late developing horse that has 4 seconds again ok to good company including a group 3 lost to Believe in Love. She going to run at a shorter distance than the last 2 races which may help. I don't know if she will win here but with a record of finishing second, she going to be able to get a placing.
1 – Thunder Kiss – Draw 2 – I liked to leave the big favorite out but I can't even though she has never raced with this much weight on her at 10-0. 1 Stone equals 14 pounds. She ran ok last out just missing by ¾ of a length. The winner Cadillac is a 3-year-old running at Saratoga on Saturday in a three-year-old grade 1 race. She's lightly raced at 8 starts and 3 wins with 3 placings. She is a group 3 winner and has won on the all-weather surface. I would put her on top if it wasn't for the weight vs what she's giving the 3-year-olds.
Newmarket 2:50 (Race 2)
7f (July) Sweet Solera Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (2yo)
8 – Sunstrike – Draw 2 – finished third to stablemate at Sandown. He tracked the leaders; switch left the ask to go with 1 furlong left. Got tired in the final strides. Maybe used too hard early in the race? I think he will show more in the spot as he tries to win a group 3 race. Last time at the level at Royal Ascot, he finished eighth beaten by 6 ¼ lengths. He's only won on the all-weather. John Gosden trained with Oisin Murphy getting the call again. He has ridden the horse in all its starts.
4 – Nurseclaire – Draw 10 – raced green in her last race. She didn't start great, last in the early going switch right without clear running then left and hung badly. Jockey was interviewed by the stewards. A mess. I will give her another chance because the runner up won next out in a group 2 race. The trainer stable hasn't been doing too well so many questions here. It's a 2-year-old, sometimes anything can happen.
11 – Wild Beauty – Draw 5 – good second last out, finishing in front on Sunstrike. She has 2 wins from 5 starts. Her 2 wins were of soft going. The last race on good to firm. The dam has produced winners but now have won running over 1 mile so this distance suits. Favorite?
Curragh 3:05 Race 4
6f Rathasker Stud Phoenix Sprint Stakes (Group 3) (3yo+)
6 – Light Refrain – Draw 3 – a winner at York last time out in a group 3 she beat Vadream by 2 ¼ lengths. Her only bad race was at Royal Ascot in a group 3 race finishing 11th but was 6th in the group she was in running in the center of the course. 2 wins this season from 4 races. This is the first time Ryan Moore has the ride.
5 – Romantic Proposal – Draw 2 – has not been out of the placings in any races this year. 1 win and 3 placings for this 5-year-old. They stepped her up last out vs. group 2 company and finished an ok third with traffic issues and being switched out with 1 furlong to go. A better trip and she may have at least up for second. 16 runs in her career she's been in the money 10 times. She didn't race until she was a 3 year old and it took 5 starts to win her first race. A late developing mare?
3 – Ventura Rebel – Draw 4 – this season, he's raced in a group 1 and 2 on the turf and a group 3 on the all-weather without any success. This 4-year-old has 3 wins from 13 starts but he won he's first 2 starts of his career and a group 3 at the end on last season. He ran a little better last out on the all-weather. But he's faced Starman and Dream of Dreams in his 2 previous races. He's won at the Curragh and is reunited with Declan McDonogh, who was on him in the group 3 race. He could also use a win but has had only 11 mounts this season.
Curragh 4:10 Race 6
6f Keeneland Phoenix Stakes (Group 1) (2yo)
5 - Go Bears Go – Draw 2 - he finishes second at Royal Ascot in a group 2 event and then rolls at the Curragh in a group 2 race. He was prominent at the beginning of the race, led at the 2-furlong makers and then ridden with 1 furlong to go. He moved to the inside, but the result was not in doubt. Nice win and will be the favorite here. Still learning.
3 – Dr Zempf – Draw 8 – this is his third run. After the maiden win, he tried group 2 company vs my top selection. He was no match for the top 3 but for a second start ran 4th beaten by 2 ¾ lengths. He needed the race. He had a good trip but needed to finish stronger. Let's see if he can move forward here.
2 – Castle Star – Draw 1 – hasn't been out of the placings yet. 5 runs 2 wins (including a group 3) and 3 seconds. All his races have been at the Curragh and his last race was against my top selection. I think he will still be hard pressed to beat him today.
9 – Prettiest – Draw 3 – the lone filly in the race with Ryan Moore riding for Aiden O'Brien. May have a shot here.
Cork - Irish Stallion Farms EBF Give Thanks Stakes
1 – Thunder Kiss
9 – La Petite Coco
4 – Fredrica Sophia
5 – Silence Please
Newmarket - Sweet Solera Stakes
9 – Value Theory
11 – Wild Beauty
3 – Majestic Glory
7 – Shouldhavebeenmore
Curragh - Rathasker Stud Phoenix Sprint Stakes
1 – Gustavus Weston
6 – Light Refrain
4 – A Case of You
10 – Teresa Mendoza
Curragh - Keeneland Phoenix Stakes
5 – Go Bears Go
9 – Prettiest
3 – Dr Zempf
2 – Castle Star