HRR

PODCAST: Special Guest Jockey Trevor McCarthy

Horse Racing Radar
Rich Bieglmeier
Rich Bieglmeier is a Staff writer for Horse Racing Radar
Saturday, August 21, 2021
Del Mar Horse Racing Picks with Jockey Trevor McCarthy.
Trevor fills us in on the current biases at Del Mar - hint - better be fast on dirt!

He also shares his insights on his mounts and makes his picks for the Pacific Classic.

Of course, Terry, Tom, Shawn and Rich make their picks too.

Follow Trevor on Twitter: https://twitter.com/trevormmccarthy


LISTEN:



WATCH:



THE PICKS:

Terry "Hollywood" Hay's Handicap

Race 5

Race Scenario: Subconscious and Barbwire will go for the lead. Affable and Hollywoodhellraisr will be in mid pack and will close in the stretch. Affable will win the race.

#7 – Affable has the highest last race speed rating of the field. Ran a nice 2nd in his last race after a 6-month layoff. Trying turf for the first time and the extra distance should help. He has a Hot Trainer/Jockey combo in last 14 days (8 2-0-3).

#11 - Barbwire ran a good race his first start at Del Mar finishing 2nd. Jockey Flavien Prat has been doing well in the last 7 days (18 5-6-2)

#2 - Hollywoodhellraisr has the fastest turf speed among today's starters. The additional distance will help in his run to the finish.

#3 - Tulsa Tornado: Jockey Trevor McCarthy returns to ride again.  He ran 4th at a mile on the turf beaten only a 1-1/4 and now has an extra 1/16 of a mile to complete his closing style.

Race 8

Race Scenario: Scary Fast Smile, Risk and Reward and Positivity will go for the lead. Several horses will close from deep including Family Biz but Scary Fast Smile will hold on to win the race.

#6 – Scary Fast Smile ran a disappointing race last time out at a mile which he appears not to like. Today he is back to a sprint. He has a decent workout on 15Aug Del Mar 4f ft :48:3 H 21/77

#7– Positivity won his last race easily and likes the track as he has ran twice and won one race and ran second in the other one at Del Mar. The trainer wins 24% of the time in the 1st race after claim.

#1– Risk and Reward has the highest last race speed rating and a Hot Trainer/Jockey combo in last 14 days (8 3-2-1) He has a sharp workout on 13Aug Del Mar 5f ft :59 H 2/53.

#9 – Family Biz has one of the best dirt speeds among today's starters (tie). He has finished 50 % of the time in the money this year, winning 25% of the races.

Race 10 - Pacific Classic

Race Scenario: Tizamagician will go to the lead. Express Train will stay close to the leader and close in the stretch. I think Royal Ship will close from deep but not quite get there and Express Train will win the race in the end.

#5 – Express Train won his last race at Del Mar at 1-1/16 and now goes to a 1-1/4 which should not be a problem. He has finished 100% of the time in the money this year, winning 40% of the races.

#4 – Royal Ship had trouble his last race really effecting his run. He has a Jockey Mike Smith in Irons, and a good workout on 16Aug Del Mar 4f ft :47.4 H 7/67.

#2 – Tizamagician has the highest last race speed rating of the entries and the best dirt speed among today's starters. He won his last race at Del Mar at a 1-1/2 so today's distance will be no problem.

#3– Dr Post comes in from a Grade 3 win at Monmouth and adds blinkers. He is a son of Quality Road, showed a big improvement between his last 2 races and is peaking at the right time.

Race 5:

Play: $2.00 Exacta -Cost: $4.00

7 / 2, 11

Pick 4 Play: $.50 Pick 4-Cost: $96.00

·       Race 8:    1, 7, 8, 9

·       Race 9:    1, 3, 4, 7

·       Race 10:  2, 3, 4, 5

·       Race 11:  4, 7, 8


Swiss Army Shawn's Selections

RACE 5

Pace Scenario: The #4 Reserve and #9 Subconscious will both go out and try to take the lead. A couple horses will sit just behind and have a good stalking trip one is the #11 Barbwire who might be sitting in the catbird seat after they leave the gate.

#11 Barbwire- Had a nice 2nd place finish in his turf debut last time out which was only his second career race. Looks like you might have 2 dueling leaders and this horse right behind them in the catbird seat. You get the leading rider who is also an exceptional turf rider.

#6 Prince Abama- First time gelding also getting first time Lasix. He's making his US debut. The connections with this horse is good with US first time starters in maiden races.

#3 Tulsa Tornado- Had a nice turf debut last time out where he finished 4th but only a half-length behind a couple of these horses. In two career races he broke close to the lead but had no real kick but also didn't go backwards badly in any of the races. Should at least get a piece if not improve and have a shot to win.

Plays:
$18 win #11
$2 exb 3,6,11 $
1 Tribox 3,6,11

RACE 8

Pace Scenario: Lots of speed in this race with the speed of the speed breaking from the rail #1 Risk and Reward. Closers will be closing late as the pace might be hot. One to look out for is the #8 Littlebitamedal.

#8 LIttlebitamedal- Is going to get pace to run at and has won half his races at Del Mar 3 for 6. Kyle Frey gets aboard for the first and will get some extra ground to close than previous races.

#1 Risk and Reward- The most lightly raced horse in the group. Should be the speed of the speed and jockey Abel Cedillo is good with speed horse.

#7 Positivity- Loves Del Mar winning 2 of 3 with a second. Could work out a nice trip behind a couple of the pace setters.

Plays:
$20 win 8
$1 Exb 1,7,8
$1 Tribox 1,7,8

Race 10 - Pacific Classic

Pace Scenario: There is some speed in here but not one that needs the lead to win.

#3 Dr. Post- Added blinkers last time out and was impressive. That was also the first time he got Joel Rosario who will be back for this race. Todd Pletcher only ships live horses so this horse should be a contender and ready to go.

#5 Express Train- The one to beat especially at Del Mar where he has won 3 of his 4 starts with a second. Has speed but also has a good late kick as well.

#2 Tizamagician- Has been really good, especially since Prat took over as the rider 3 races ago. Definitely facing better here and will get tested. Also, has been going further than this distance. If you like him just keep in mind you will get a shorter price because of being a MyRaceHorse horse.

Plays:
$20 win 3
$1 EXB 2,3,5
$1 Tribox 2,3,5


22 to 1 Tom's Tips

Race 5

Maidens, many may want the lead with maybe the newcomer will show speed. With the 12-horse field, the race maybe won at they hit the second turn. Who can get to the outside with clear running should win? A remote chance for a rail skimmer to pick them up.

11 – Barbwire

•            Shows speed in first 2 races and good effort on the turf running second

•            She wants more distance after first attempt on turf

•            Move too soon last out to get caught at the end

•            Trainers record with 2nd grass attempt is 43% winners with positive ROI

•            Sire has many turf winners

8 – Shotgun Express

•            Stinker last year in first race – toss it

•            Needed to mature

•            Ok works for attempt in second try

•            First time Lasix

•            Breeder screams turf. The sire has many good turf runners in Europe at the group 1 level. Dam side by Galileo too many turf winners at top level. Dam was unraced, first foal.

4 – Reserve

•            4 runs 2 at Churchill and 2 at Oaklawn only one turf try

•            Better race last out at MSW. Show speed for the first time last out.

•            Too keen in last race?

•            Dam was a turf winner and has produced 2 turf winners for 5 starters including one stakes winner

13 – Oncoming – if he draws into the race

•            Mild rally in first start gaining 3rd

•            Adds Lasix

•            Of the 2 dam winners both have won on the turf

•            Layoff – hasn't raced since October 2020

•            Watch out and could get a bit of a price

Race 8

Strange race condition, if in for a claiming price you run for less of the purse. Pace in the race will come from Risk and Reward, Scary Fast Smile, Positivity and Gray Magician. Setting in will be Dream Shake, Established and Littlebitamedal and maybe Family Biz. Coming to the turn, movement from Adare and Positvity but it's too late and looking to pick up the minor awards.

3 – Established

•            Won maiden at Indiana Downs in the mud going 1 mile

•            Switched trainers and ran 6 ½ furlongs at same level as today and finished second

•            Last race was 2 turns and stalked the leaders and then had nothing

•            Could take the lead and not look back

•            7 furlongs appears to suit this horse

•            Last 2 works were ok

2 – Dream Shake

•            Been running against much better horses including graded stake races

•            Last out showed speed (too keen and tugged at the beginning) in this restricted stakes race but finished 8th beaten by only 2 ½ lengths on turf

•            Overbet favorite, he will get beat again

8 – Family Biz

•            Claimed for 50k and did little in first start at OC62.5 level

•            Drops in class

•            Won at this level in the past again less

•            Good work of :36.4

•            8 runs this year and 4 places

•            In for the lesser purse and will get claimed?

Race 10 - Pacific Classic

Too much speed in this race? Independence Hall, Royal Ship, Express Train, Tizamagician and Magic on Tap. I think Tizamagician will take them around. There is no real deep closer with a host of horses sitting behind the leaders waiting to go. Who goes?

3 – Dr Post

•            Shipper after win at Monmouth when adding blinker last out

•            Sits behind the leaders and pounced on the outside

•            Faced some of the top horses in his career with mixed results.

•            Todd Pletcher trained, and I don't think he would ship this horse if he's not in fine form.

•            Why don't here for 1-million-dollar purse

4 – Royal Ship

•            Moved on the rail last out and was beaten by 1 ¼ lengths. Rail the place to be?

•            Race before, 3 wide and just missed

•            Winner in grade 2 in Californian winning by a neck and battled all the way

•            Richard Mandella took a while with this Brazilian import to figure him out

•            Mike Smith rides again

•            Last work of :47.4 indicates in good form

6 – Magic On Tap

•            Stumbled in last after layoff – needed race - toss

•            Only one really bad race in career vs my second choice

•            After bad race, ran at 7 furlongs to win, grade 2

•            Negative – never ran at the distance but breeding says no problem


Rich's Ranks

Race 5

7 - Affable

11 - Barbwire

9 - Subconscious

1 - Lone Scout

Race 8

1 - Risk and Reward

7 - Positivity

3 - Dream Shake

5 - Grey Magician

Race 10 - Pacific Classic

2 – Tizamagician 5-1

5 – Express Train 3-1

4 – Royal Ship 7/2

7 – Independence Hall 5-1

 

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