Race Scenario: Subconscious and Barbwire will
go for the lead. Affable and Hollywoodhellraisr will be in mid pack and will
close in the stretch. Affable will win the race.
#7 – Affable has the highest last race speed rating of the
field. Ran a nice 2nd in his last race after a 6-month layoff. Trying turf for
the first time and the extra distance should help. He has a Hot Trainer/Jockey
combo in last 14 days (8 2-0-3).
#11 - Barbwire ran a good race his first start at Del Mar
finishing 2nd. Jockey Flavien Prat has been doing well in the last 7 days (18
#2 - Hollywoodhellraisr has the fastest turf speed among
today's starters. The additional distance will help in his run to the finish.
#3 - Tulsa Tornado: Jockey Trevor McCarthy returns to ride
again. He ran 4th at a mile on the turf
beaten only a 1-1/4 and now has an extra 1/16 of a mile to complete his closing
Race Scenario: Scary Fast Smile, Risk and
Reward and Positivity will go for the lead. Several horses will close from deep
including Family Biz but Scary Fast Smile will hold on to win the race.
#6 – Scary Fast Smile ran a disappointing race last time out
at a mile which he appears not to like. Today he is back to a sprint. He has a
decent workout on 15Aug Del Mar 4f ft :48:3 H 21/77
#7– Positivity won his last race easily and likes the track
as he has ran twice and won one race and ran second in the other one at Del
Mar. The trainer wins 24% of the time in the 1st race after claim.
#1– Risk and Reward has the highest last race speed rating
and a Hot Trainer/Jockey combo in last 14 days (8 3-2-1) He has a sharp workout
on 13Aug Del Mar 5f ft :59 H 2/53.
#9 – Family Biz has one of the best dirt speeds among
today's starters (tie). He has finished 50 % of the time in the money this
year, winning 25% of the races.
Race 10 - Pacific Classic
Race Scenario: Tizamagician will go to the
lead. Express Train will stay close to the leader and close in the stretch. I
think Royal Ship will close from deep but not quite get there and Express Train
will win the race in the end.
#5 – Express Train won his last race at Del Mar at 1-1/16
and now goes to a 1-1/4 which should not be a problem. He has finished 100% of
the time in the money this year, winning 40% of the races.
#4 – Royal Ship had trouble his last race really effecting
his run. He has a Jockey Mike Smith in Irons, and a good workout on 16Aug Del
Mar 4f ft :47.4 H 7/67.
#2 – Tizamagician has the highest last race speed rating of
the entries and the best dirt speed among today's starters. He won his last
race at Del Mar at a 1-1/2 so today's distance will be no problem.
#3– Dr Post comes in from a Grade 3 win at Monmouth and adds
blinkers. He is a son of Quality Road, showed a big improvement between his
last 2 races and is peaking at the right time.
Play: $2.00 Exacta -Cost: $4.00
7 / 2, 11
Pick 4 Play: $.50 Pick 4-Cost: $96.00
1, 7, 8, 9
1, 3, 4, 7
2, 3, 4, 5
4, 7, 8
Army Shawn's Selections
Pace Scenario: The #4 Reserve and #9
Subconscious will both go out and try to take the lead. A couple horses will
sit just behind and have a good stalking trip one is the #11 Barbwire who might
be sitting in the catbird seat after they leave the gate.
#11 Barbwire- Had a nice 2nd place finish in his turf debut
last time out which was only his second career race. Looks like you might have
2 dueling leaders and this horse right behind them in the catbird seat. You get
the leading rider who is also an exceptional turf rider.
#6 Prince Abama- First time gelding also getting first time
Lasix. He's making his US debut. The connections with this horse is good with
US first time starters in maiden races.
#3 Tulsa Tornado- Had a nice turf debut last time out where
he finished 4th but only a half-length behind a couple of these horses. In two
career races he broke close to the lead but had no real kick but also didn't go
backwards badly in any of the races. Should at least get a piece if not improve
and have a shot to win.
$18 win #11
$2 exb 3,6,11 $
1 Tribox 3,6,11
Pace Scenario: Lots of speed in this race with
the speed of the speed breaking from the rail #1 Risk and Reward. Closers will
be closing late as the pace might be hot. One to look out for is the #8
#8 LIttlebitamedal- Is going to get pace to run at and has
won half his races at Del Mar 3 for 6. Kyle Frey gets aboard for the first and
will get some extra ground to close than previous races.
#1 Risk and Reward- The most lightly raced horse in the
group. Should be the speed of the speed and jockey Abel Cedillo is good with
#7 Positivity- Loves Del Mar winning 2 of 3 with a second.
Could work out a nice trip behind a couple of the pace setters.
$20 win 8
$1 Exb 1,7,8
$1 Tribox 1,7,8
Race 10 - Pacific Classic
Pace Scenario: There is some speed in here but not
one that needs the lead to win.
#3 Dr. Post- Added blinkers last time out and was
impressive. That was also the first time he got Joel Rosario who will be back
for this race. Todd Pletcher only ships live horses so this horse should be a
contender and ready to go.
#5 Express Train- The one to beat especially at Del Mar
where he has won 3 of his 4 starts with a second. Has speed but also has a good
late kick as well.
#2 Tizamagician- Has been really good, especially since Prat
took over as the rider 3 races ago. Definitely facing better here and will get
tested. Also, has been going further than this distance. If you like him just
keep in mind you will get a shorter price because of being a MyRaceHorse horse.
$20 win 3
$1 EXB 2,3,5
$1 Tribox 2,3,5
22 to 1
Maidens, many may want the lead with maybe the newcomer will
show speed. With the 12-horse field, the race maybe won at they hit the second
turn. Who can get to the outside with clear running should win? A remote chance
for a rail skimmer to pick them up.
11 – Barbwire
speed in first 2 races and good effort on the turf running second
• She wants
more distance after first attempt on turf
• Move too
soon last out to get caught at the end
record with 2nd grass attempt is 43% winners with positive ROI
• Sire has
many turf winners
8 – Shotgun Express
last year in first race – toss it
• Needed to
• Ok works
for attempt in second try
• First time
screams turf. The sire has many good turf runners in Europe at the group 1
level. Dam side by Galileo too many turf winners at top level. Dam was unraced,
4 – Reserve
• 4 runs 2
at Churchill and 2 at Oaklawn only one turf try
race last out at MSW. Show speed for the first time last out.
• Too keen
in last race?
• Dam was a
turf winner and has produced 2 turf winners for 5 starters including one stakes
13 – Oncoming – if he draws into the race
• Mild rally
in first start gaining 3rd
• Adds Lasix
• Of the 2
dam winners both have won on the turf
• Layoff –
hasn't raced since October 2020
• Watch out
and could get a bit of a price
Strange race condition, if in for a claiming price you run
for less of the purse. Pace in the race will come from Risk and Reward, Scary
Fast Smile, Positivity and Gray Magician. Setting in will be Dream Shake,
Established and Littlebitamedal and maybe Family Biz. Coming to the turn,
movement from Adare and Positvity but it's too late and looking to pick up the
3 – Established
• Won maiden
at Indiana Downs in the mud going 1 mile
trainers and ran 6 ½ furlongs at same level as today and finished second
• Last race
was 2 turns and stalked the leaders and then had nothing
• Could take
the lead and not look back
• 7 furlongs
appears to suit this horse
• Last 2
works were ok
2 – Dream Shake
running against much better horses including graded stake races
• Last out
showed speed (too keen and tugged at the beginning) in this restricted stakes
race but finished 8th beaten by only 2 ½ lengths on turf
favorite, he will get beat again
8 – Family Biz
for 50k and did little in first start at OC62.5 level
• Drops in
• Won at
this level in the past again less
• Good work
• 8 runs
this year and 4 places
• In for the
lesser purse and will get claimed?
Race 10 - Pacific Classic
Too much speed in this race? Independence Hall, Royal Ship,
Express Train, Tizamagician and Magic on Tap. I think Tizamagician will take
them around. There is no real deep closer with a host of horses sitting behind
the leaders waiting to go. Who goes?
3 – Dr Post
after win at Monmouth when adding blinker last out
behind the leaders and pounced on the outside
• Faced some
of the top horses in his career with mixed results.
Pletcher trained, and I don't think he would ship this horse if he's not in
• Why don't
here for 1-million-dollar purse
4 – Royal Ship
• Moved on
the rail last out and was beaten by 1 ¼ lengths. Rail the place to be?
before, 3 wide and just missed
• Winner in
grade 2 in Californian winning by a neck and battled all the way
Mandella took a while with this Brazilian import to figure him out
• Mike Smith
• Last work
of :47.4 indicates in good form
6 – Magic On Tap
in last after layoff – needed race - toss
• Only one
really bad race in career vs my second choice
• After bad
race, ran at 7 furlongs to win, grade 2
• Negative –
never ran at the distance but breeding says no problem
7 - Affable
11 - Barbwire
9 - Subconscious
1 - Lone Scout
1 - Risk and Reward
7 - Positivity
3 - Dream Shake
5 - Grey Magician
Race 10 - Pacific Classic
2 – Tizamagician 5-1
5 – Express Train 3-1
4 – Royal Ship 7/2
7 – Independence Hall 5-1