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Breeders' Cup Challenge Races for August 28 2021

Horse Racing Radar
Rich Bieglmeier
Rich Bieglmeier is a Staff writer for Horse Racing Radar
Saturday, August 28, 2021

The Profile of a Pat O'Brien Winner 2021

The Pat O'Brien winner gets a spot in the Breeders' Cup Big Ass Fans Dirt Mile

Favorites have dominated recently, winning the last three and five of the last six. In the last 10 years, when chalk didn't score it finished second three times and off the board in the other two.

Eight of the last 10 Pat O'Brien left from middle posts and out, but that's relative to field size. For example, MASOCHISTIC wore number 3, but there were only three horses in the field.

Six of 10 winners were considered early speed with three going wire to wire, but two of the W2W were in fields of three and four. In fields of six or more, stalkers/closer won all but one in five.

The Profile of a Ballerina Handicap Winner 2021

The Ballerina Handicap champ gets a spot in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.

Big trouble for GAMINE? The favorite has only won three of the last 10 Ballerina Handicaps, but two of them were in the last three years. However, the post-time choice has hit the board in seven of the last 10. So, it's probably a good idea to have the favorite exotics.

Early speed won four of the last 10 with three taking the field from gate to wire and ARTEMIS ARGOTERA riding shotgun at the quarter-pole. Five of the other six stalked the leaders with UNBRIDLED FOREVER going from worst to first in a seven-horse field.

The inside two posts won five of the last 10 Ballerina with the rail getting three champs and two for two.

The Profile of a Personal Ensign Stakes Winner 2021

The Personal Ensign Stakes winner is in the Breeders' Cup Distaff.

Horseplayers are usually close in picking the winner. The chalk won four of the last 10 Personal Ensign Stakes and was the runner up five times, including four of the last five years.

It's been a series of shorter field with nine of the last 10 gating six or less. The inside three posts have the most, winning seven of 10. The rail scoring twice, the 2 getting three championships, the 3 scoring a pair.

Close to the front has been the winning approach as seven of the last 10 were in the first three at the quarter-pole, not surprising consider the skinny fields.

The Profile of a Sword Dancer Stakes Winner 2021

The Sword Dancer Stakes champion is in the Breeders' Cup Turf.

Odds are, if the chalk doesn't score, it will finish out of the money. The public's choice has won five of the last 10 and ran second once, last year.

Seven of the last 10 Sword Dancer winners were closers, running fifth and out at the quarter-pole with all 10 field being at least seven deep.

Post position doesn't appear to play a role in outcomes as winners left from the inside, middle and out.

 

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