Breeders' Cup Challenge Races - September 4, 2021

Horse Racing Radar
Rich Bieglmeier
Rich Bieglmeier is a Staff writer for Horse Racing Radar
Saturday, September 4, 2021

The Profile of a Flower Bowl Winner

Don't expect to get paid. The favorite has won six of the last 10 at an average price between 3/5 and 4/5. Don't stary too far from the post-time choice as only of the last 10 champs went off at odds greater than 3-1.

Stalker and closers get the hardware. It's more likely that the winner will go from worst to first than gate to wire. LAUGHING is the only one of the last 10 to take them wire to wire. Meanwhile, four of the last 10 winners were either last (2x) of second to last (2x) at the quarter pole and eight of the last 10 were middle of the pack or pack back after the opening quarter.

It's probably going to be a Chad Brown horse in the winners' circle as the trainer has won and six of 10, including five of the last seven Flower Bowls. Claude McGaughey, III is the only other to win in the last seven years, including last year.

Irad Ortiz, Jr. or John Velazquez will likely be the winning jockey as the duo have three wins each.

Projected Pace

The Play from our friends at Guaranteed Tip Sheet:

WAR LIKE GODDESS has won five of six races including two for two at the distance. MY SISTER NAT could improve in her second start following a short rest. LA SIGNARE might try to take them from start to finish. GREAT ISLAND has never run a bad race in seven outings, class rise is the question.

The Profile of a Jockey Club Gold Cup Winner

Unless the horse's name is TONALIST, who won back-to-back in 2015 and 2015, stay away from the favorite on top of the ticket. TONALIST is the only post time choice to win in the last 10 years. The other eight champs usually go off between 3-1 and 4-1 but there were a pair of bombs, DISCREEET LOVER in 2018 at 45 to 1 and RON THE GREEK at 21 to 1.

More than likely, a stalker/closer will get the job done, finding the tape first in seven of the last 10; however, two of the last four to hoist the Jockey Club hardware led every step of the way.

There doesn't not appear to be a post position advantage or dominate trainer or jockey. 

Projected Pace

The Play from our friends at Guaranteed Tip Sheet:

HAPPY SAVER is five for five on a fast track. MAX PLAYER could be on the front and control the race from start to finish. FORZA DI ORO ran the top, last race speed figure, the third increase in a row. NIGHT OPS has the strongest late pace numbers in the race.


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