HRR

PODCAST: Featuring Special Guest Jay Privman

Horse Racing Radar
Rich Bieglmeier
Rich Bieglmeier is a Staff writer for Horse Racing Radar
Saturday, September 4, 2021
National correspondent for the Daily Racing Form, focusing on the Triple Crown and Breeders' Cup, Jay Privman stops by to talk horse racing , his favorite actor and more.

Jay reveals his favorite Bill Murray movie and scene. Hint: golf was never the same afterwards.  Rich tells why Ghostbuster is #1 and reminds Jay of Bill Murray scene so funny, Jay begins to laugh immediately.  22 to 1 Tom chimes in with an appropriate, for the moment Bill Murray movie and quote as well.

Jay and the crew make some horse racing picks too.

Del Mar Race 6 - $100,000 I'M SMOKIN STAKES
Del Mar Race 9 - $200,000 JOHN C MABEE STAKES – GRADE II

Del Mar Race 11 - $250,000 DEL MAR DERBY – GRADE II

Make sure you follow Jay Privman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DRFPrivman


LISTEN:



WATCH:



THE PICKS:

Terry "Hollywood" Hay's Handicap

Del Mar Race 6 - $100,000 I'M SMOKIN STAKES

Race Scenario: Zuboshi and Rock N Rye will go for the lead. Moose Mitchell and Thirsty Always will be in mid pack and will close in the stretch. Joker Boy will be a little deeper and close in the stretch to win the race.

#3 - Joker Boy won his first race at 5-1/2 furlongs and now stretches out to 6 furlongs which fits well with what appears to be his running style of closing from behind.  Jockey Edwin Maldonado returns to ride again and he has a good 4F workout 29Aug at Del Mar 4f ft :48 H 10/87

#8 – Moose Mitchell ran second at 6 furlongs in his last race. The connections switches to jockey Flavien Prat. His early speed running style should help chances.

#5 - Rock N Rye has won two races in row and now goes for a hat trip. He has the highest last race speed rating and has the best dirt speed among today's starters.

#7 - Thirsty Always ran in a grade 2 race last time in a 6 - furlong contest. He drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 20% of the Non-Graded Stake that he has a horse entered in. He has a good workout 28Aug at Del Mar - 5f ft 1:00.2 H 10/65.

Play:
$6.00 Win # 3
$1.00 Exacta Box & $.50 Trifecta Box: Cost $24.00 - 3, 5, 7, 8

Del Mar Race 9 - $200,000 JOHN C MABEE STAKES – GRADE II

Race Scenario: Nasty, Quiet Secretary and Tapwater will go for the lead. Dogtag , Maxim Rate and Going to Vegas will close from in the stretch and Dogtag will close to win.

#3– Dogtag has ran second three races in a row, two of them Grade 2 affairs. She is nine for eleven on the turf, winning four of the races. She has the highest last race speed rating, and her Best Turf speed is faster than the Avg Winning Speed.

#8 – Going to Vegas won her last race at Del Mar at today's race and has a good workout on 29Aug at Del Mar 4f :48 H 2/14. During her career she has finished in the money 75% of the time, winning 25% of the races.

#1– Maxim Rate likes the track and distance; her best turf speed is fastest among today's starters.

#7 – Tapwater ran 3rd in her last race at 1-3/8 miles and now cuts back to 1-1/8 miles which will be better for her front running style. She has a Hot Jockey Joe Bravo who in the last 7 days (18 6-2-4) and a good 4F workout (Aug-28) :47 H 4/76.

Play:
$6.00 Win # 3
$1.00 Exacta Box & $.50 Trifecta Box: Cost $24.00 - 1, 3, 7, 8

Del Mar Race 11 - $250,000 DEL MAR DERBY – GRADE II

Race Scenario: Jimmy Blue Jeans, Hockey Dad and Barraza will go to the lead. Hudson Ridge and Crew Dragon will stay close to the leader and close in the stretch. I think Flashiest will close from deep but not quite get there and Crew Dragon will win the race in the end.

#12 – Crew Dragon won his last race at Del Mar at 1-1/16 and now goes to a 1-1/4 which should not be a problem. He has finished 100% of the time in the money this year, winning 40% of the races.

#10 – Jimmy Blue Jeans has won three races in a row as he climbs the class ladder and shows he really takes to the turf. He likes the distance and has a good workout on 26Aug at Del Mar 5f fm 1:00 H 1/15.

#1 – Hudson Ridge has finished in the money in the last four races, winning two of them. His best turf speed is fastest among today's starters. He has good Trainer/Jockey Combo-(Bob Baffert / Flavien Prat) who in the last 14 days has done this (3 2-1-0).

#14– Flashiest comes back from Saratoga after trying the Grade1 Saratoga Derby where he was overmatch but now moves back to a class of horses where he can be competitive with. He is having a good career so far finishing 80% of the time in the money, winning 40% of the races.

Play:
$6.00 Win # 12
$1.00 Exacta Box & $.50 Trifecta Box: Cost $24.00 - 1, 10, 12, 14


Swiss Army Shawn's Selections

Del Mar Race 6 - $100,000 I'M SMOKIN STAKES

PACE SUMMARY: There is some pace in here must notably to the outside in the #7 Thirsty Always and the #8 Moose Mitchell. You also have #5 Rock N Rye. None of those horses need the lead; they just need to be forwardly placed. The only horse in this field that absolutely needs the lead to win is #1 Zuboshi. She is the wildcard as she might not even enter as she is entered on Friday as well against all fillies instead of up against the boys here.

#7 Thirsty Always- Won first 2 career races before stepping up to Grade 2 competition and just faded after getting caught up in a speed duel. Gets a jockey upgrade here going to Juan Hernandez and comes back down to a more realistic spot.

#8 Moose Mitchell- Still a maiden but ran well in first 2 starts and now gets a huge jockey upgrade in Flavian Prat. Outside post will work here as he can be forwardly placed and decide what he wants to do.

#5 Rock N Rye- Going for his 3rd win in a row while stretching out another ½ furlong. Will be there at the end I just think he can be beat here and I'm not taking the short price.

Plays: 
$20 win 7
$1 Exbox 5,7,8
$1 Tri box 5,7,8

Del Mar Race 9 - $200,000 JOHN C MABEE STAKES – GRADE II

PACE SUMMARY:  #2 Quiet Secretary and #4 Nasty will go out early for the lead and set this race up for the closers.

#3 Dogtag- Owns the highest Beyer number in this field with a 99 and has done it twice. Battle tested horse that always seems to come up just short in these types of races. I think here she will get the right set up and is against the right horse for her to win.

#6 Bodhicitta- A deep closer that should get a fast pace to run at. She has finished in the exacta in 8 of 18 career races.

#8 Going to Vegas- Could be sitting in the cat bird seat at the start finding a spot behind the two dueling leaders. Prat gets on her for the first time in a while and he has won 2 of 3 with a second while on her.

Plays
$24 win 3
$1 Exbox 3,6,8
$1 tribox 3,6,8

Del Mar Race 11 - $250,000 DEL MAR DERBY – GRADE II

PACE SUMMARY:   There is some speed in this race but looks like the #3 Hockey Dad will get it from the gate with some pressure from a few others.

#10 Jimmy Blue Jeans- Has won 3 straight races since switching to the turf with 3 different jockeys. Last 2 races were at double digit odds. Might get a lot of value here again. Should be close to the pace and get a good trip. Beyer number has improved every race of his career.

#9 Zoeffarelli- Got 2nd in his debut was credited with the win after getting pinballed around down the stretch. I always like the horses better in the 2nd start after getting to the US.

#1 Hudson Ridge- Has finished in the trifecta in 4 straight races and now gets the Prat; loves this distance going 2 for 2.

Plays:
$20 win 10
$1 Exbox 1,9,10
$1 Tribox 1,9,10


22 to 1 Tom's Tips

Del Mar Race 6 - $100,000 I'M SMOKIN STAKES

Lots of speed with 2-year-olds and I expect Mr. T's Thirsty to go out fast with Rock N Rye, Thirsty Always and Moose Mitchell all fighting for position and maybe the lead. Away slow will be Eleuthera but not Zuboshi, Freedom's Glory and Joker Boy. As the race for the turn, Mr. T's Thirsty gives way and a wall of three horses move together to the top of the stretch. The chasers are trying but not quite getting to the leaders.

8 – Moose Mitchell

•            Still a maiden but ran useful races

•            First race, had some issues but still flashed speed

•            Second race, battled all the way

•            Jockey switch from an apprentice to Flavien Prat – big plus would have made a difference in last race?

•            January foal, oldest horse in the race

•            Trainers record spotty at best but in the past, has been better

•            Breaking from the outside may help establish position early

•            Dam was unraced, sire was a grade 2 and 3 winner, and he has 8 runners 3 winners from his first crop

1 – Zuboshi

•            Winner on turf last out by 6 1/2 , powering away from the field

•            Good vs State breds in first race at LosA

•            Speed from rail may help establish position early

•            Kyle Frey returns to ride for Peter Miller

•            Dam was a winner, 100% of her 2-year-olds have won from 3 starters and 2 of them are stakes winners

3 – Joker Boy

•            Nice first out win, wide trip and still found a way to get there in time

•            Inside post helps.

•            Ok works up to this race

•            Sire is first crop to race, doing ok

•            Dam was stakes placed in her racing career

•            Dam's offspring 6 foals to race for 6 winners with 1 stakes winner and 50% won as 2-year old's

Del Mar Race 9 - $200,000 JOHN C MABEE STAKES – GRADE II

Nasty is nasty on the lead. Inside of her, Maxim Rate, Quiet Secretary and Dogtag try to keep up. The balance looks to establish position along the rail with cover or on the outside 2 to 3 wide. Pasted the finish line the first time, Nasty still maintaining position on the rail with a narrow lead and the wide horse lose a couple of lengths in that first turn. Move on the back stretch, Going to Vegas and Tapwater move up and I have no idea what Fast Jet Court is doing. Top of the stretch, Nasty goes backwards after setting too fast of a pace with the closers coming strong and Maxim Rate moving up the rail.

1 – Maxim Rate

•            Good third last out in grade 2 race, 1 1/16 race too short?

•            Grade 1 winner at distance

•            Can run closer to the lead or close fast

•            First two races were spaced out (Keeneland & Santa Anita) quicker turn around and has won with less time off

3 – Dogtag

•            Likes to run second, 3 races this year, 3 seconds

•            Beaten favorite twice

•            Trouble last out when she came out and bumped

•            What distance is her best distance?

7 – Tapwater

•            Beaten favorite last out and time before too

•            Ran 2 different races, near the lead and one farther back in the field

•            NEGATIVE – distance suits?

•            New rider (again) Joe Bravo

Del Mar Race 11 - $250,000 DEL MAR DERBY – GRADE II

Out quick is Cathkin Peak with Hudson Ridge hot on the tail. The balance of the field is looking to tuck in or get over so not to get too wide on the first turn. Who get the best trip to this point, Petruchio and Zoffarelli. Backstretch, some on the move, some just holding their own and a few already out of the race. On the turn, we see No Foolery Here and Hockey Dad moving with Sword Zorro and Crew Dragon caught wide trying to make up group. Top of the stretch, we have 6 in a line.

14 – Flashiest

•            Toss last, put against some very good European and US 3 year runners at Saratoga

•            Always runs a troubled trip – checked, knock into rival, off slow and checked, pulled early, rank...what next?

•            But he has 3 wins from 5 starts and 1 second.

•            With outside post, he will allow to "settle" in the back of the field to make he's one run

•            Post 14 sucks

9 – Zoffarelli

•            Great first out in grade 3 company after racing in England

•            Highest level in England was a class 2, he finished second

•            Didn't face very tough company in England

•            Last was first distance race of over 1 mile

•            Finish second again?

8 – Cathkin Park

•            Tried to run in front and failed and backup quickly

•            Needs to settle midpack to have a chance

•            2 wins from 5 starts all at 1 mile

•            Needs for racing luck too

•            Many troubled trips

•            He will be flying at the end


Rich's Ranks

Del Mar Race 6 - $100,000 I'M SMOKIN STAKES

5 - Rock N Rye

3 - Joker Boy

7 - Thirsty Always

8 - Moose Mitchell

Del Mar Race 9 - $200,000 JOHN C MABEE STAKES – GRADE II

3 - Dogtag

8 - Going to Vegas

1 - Maxim Rate

7 - Tapwater

Del Mar Race 11 - $250,000 DEL MAR DERBY – GRADE II

1 - Hudson Ridge

9 - Zoffarelli

14 - Flashiest

11 - Lincoln Hawk

 

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