Kentucky Downs has a big day of racing coming up on Saturday. We covered races 9-11 on The Player's Edge Podcast this week, with our special guest Julien Leparoux. If you haven't watched it yet, you can find it here.
In this article, I'll preview and breakdown races 6-8, all Grade 3 stakes races, which includes the $600K Ladies Sprint Stakes, $750K Ladies Turf Stakes, and $1,000,000 Turf Sprint Stakes.
Race 6: $600K Ladies Sprint Stakes (G3) — 6.5 furlongs, Turf, Fillies and Mares, Three-year-olds and upward.
Post Time is 2:57 PM CT.
The first thing that jumps out here is how good the ML favorite #10 VENETIAN HARBOR is. The horse has only been out of the exacta 1 time in 10 career races. There's two concerns in this race for her: first, there is a lot of other speed, and second, she has a different jockey as Florent Geroux is aboard her for the first time. Still, she looks really tough and I would think she's the speed of the speed here and she will be my top choice.
Since we see there is a lot of speed in here, I like to take some closers as well to add to the exotics. The horse I really like to come flying late is the #12 CONSTANTIA. Umberto Rispoli, who is aboard again, has had a lot of success with her. In 7 starts he has had 4 wins, 2 places and 1 third with her. She likes the distance as well, winning 2 of 4 with a place, and a show.
The #7 CATCH A BID could be another coming at the end and will get plenty of pace to run into. She can run close to the front or close. In here, I think the correct tactic here would be to close.
The one I left out of my trifecta that you would have to consider using and will be dangerous if you leave off your ticket like me would be #6 SUPERSTITION with Flavien Prat aboard. It's very dangerous to leave any horse off with Prat aboard, especially on turf. This horse never runs a bad race. I just didn't know what to do with her since she seems to want to be close to the pace and there is a bunch of speed in here.
Race 7: $750K Ladies Turf Stakes (G3) — 1 mile, Turf, Fillies and Mares, Three-year-olds and upward. Post Time is 3:34 PM CT.
Again, in this race the ML favorite looks tough: #2 PRINCESS GRACE. This horse is 5 for 6 lifetime, and the one race she lost was by half a length. What's even more impressive is those 6 races have come at 6 different tracks and 6 different jockeys. This race will make the 7th different track but finally gets a jockey that has ridden her before in Florent Geroux. This horse wants to be about mid pack and then make her run. There's plenty of speed in here for her to find her spot and make her run against the tiring leaders. She's my top pick as she just seems to win no matter the situation.
The #6 SHIFTY SHE has speed but also can sit off the speed and has a nice ML price of 6/1. Her Beyer number has improved every race of her career and if it improves again she will be tough here. Gets Irad Ortiz Jr. and has won 2 of 4 at this distance.
#5 SHE'SONTHEWARPATH has won 2 in a row and should get a nice pace to run at as she is always coming at the end. She has won 3 of 6 at the distance and half her turf starts 8 of 16.
The wildcard and dangerous horse I left out is #3 ABSCOND. Always dangerous to leave a horse Flavien Prat is on, out of the mix on turf. I just would have a hard time to take a price like the ML of 4/1. The horse has not won a race in about 2 years.
Race 8: $1,000,000 Turf Sprint Stakes (G3) — 6 furlongs, Turf, Three-year-olds and upward. Post Time is 4:09 PM CT.
This race here looks to me like the most wide open and difficult race out of the three we are covering here. #2 FAST BOAT will be my longshot play here at 10/1 ML. Has won 3 of his last 4 races and is 1 for 1 at Kentucky Downs. He gets Joel Rosario aboard for the first time, and you can't go wrong there as Joel has dominated the track so far this meet. This horse can come off the pace or be close to the pace, it doesn't matter. I would expect this horse to sit mid pack and make a run from there.
I'm going to go #9 GOT STORMY next as she faces the boys. One of the most classiest and battle tested horses in this field. She does have a win at Kentucky Downs as she is 1 for 1. She should sit right behind the speed. The outside post should help her as Tyler Gaffalione will be able to find a good spot.
My 3rd choice is a horse I could even see possibly wiring this field #3 BOMBARD. 10/1 ML price for the potential speed of the race with Prat aboard, I will take it. There are other speed that could press, but most of the horses look like they want to sit behind the speed. If this horse gets out front, look out. He does have a race over the track where he finished second. He also has 2 starts at this distance and finished second in both.
I'm going to leave the ML favorite #7 CASA CREED to beat me as I just can't play this horse in this field at a low price. You might want to add him to your exotics as he might be there. The horse will close from the back and is 1 for 1 at this distance. He always seems to be around at the end.
It's going to be a great day of racing at Kentucky Downs on Saturday. Hopefully between this article covering races 6-8 and The Player's Edge Podcast covering races 9-11 we can find you some winners and point you in the right direction. Good luck!