HRR

PODCAST: Special Guest Jockey Julien Leparoux

Horse Racing Radar
Rich Bieglmeier
Rich Bieglmeier is a Staff writer for Horse Racing Radar
Friday, September 10, 2021

Seven-time Breeders' Cup Champion and two-time Eclipse Award winner Julien Leparoux joins The Player's Edge Podcast to discuss and make picks for Saturday, September 11, 2021 at Kentucky Downs, including:

The $1 million, Grade II - Calumet Turf Cup Stakes
The Franklin-Simpson Stakes


Julien also shares his thoughts on his favorite tracks, horse to ride and reacts to his funny tweet.

 

LISTEN:

WATCH:


THE PICKS:

Terry "Hollywood" Hay's Handicapping

Race 9 Calumet Turf Cup Stakes

Race Scenario: Tide of the Sea and Epic Bromance will go for the lead. Arklow, Glynn County and Zulu Alpha will close deep in the stretch to try to win the race, Arklow will be successful.

#5 - Arklow has the highest speed figure at today's distance and his best turf speed is fastest among today's starters. He likes Kentucky Downs, and the distance will be no problem as he has won five times at 1-1/2. He has a Trainer/Jockey combo who in last 14 days has the following record (7 4-1-1). Sharp 4F workout (Sep-04) :48 B 4/64.

#9 - Glynn County ran third in his last race at 1-1/4 a Grade 1 race, just ran out of real estate. Today the distance is a 1-1/2 where he has won the only start he has had. He is trained by Michael Maker and the Jockey is Tyler Gaffalione, a good combination.

#11 - Zulu Alpha has won a Grade 1 & Grade 2 race and has won at today's distance four times. He is having a good career finishing in the money 62% of the time, winning 32% of the races.

#4 – Tide of the Sea has won two out of four races at today's distance and is one for one at Kentucky Downs. He could get the lead and if not pressed could lead all the way.

Race 10 - Franklin-Simpson Stakes

Race Scenario: Next will go for the lead but may be joined Into the Sunrise and County Final. Point Me By will close in the stretch and try to pick up the pieces if the front runners run each other into the ground.

#6– Next is one for one at Kentucky Downs and at today's distance. He ran 6-1/2 and now shortens up to 6 furlong which will help him. He has won 42% of his career races.

#1 – Into the Sunrise has won two of his last three races. The rail post is winning at 25% clip, and he has a Sharp 5F workout (Sep-02) Kee 5f ft 1:00ª B 1/11.

#3– County Final has run second in his last two races, and he has the highest last race speed rating. He has a good 4F workout (Sep-03) at Saratoga 49.2 B 7/29.

#10 – Point Me By has won two out of three career starts, his last win a grade 1 affair. 17% The trainer wins the next race when bringing a horse back who won his last race. He has a good 5F workout (Sep-03) 1:00 B 2/9.

Race 11 - MSW

Race Scenario: Baj, Grael and Mackenzie's Novva will go to the lead. I think Seal Beach will close from deep but not quite get there and Grael will win the race in the end.

#6 – Grael ran third in the first race of his career as the lukewarm favorite. The trainer wins 27% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to the races and can improve with Blinkers being added today and he has a good 4F workout (Aug-29) 3f ft :35.4 Hg2/5.

#10 – Seal Beach ran second in her last race at 6-1/2 furlongs and now stretches out to a mile which appears to be what he needs. He has good Trainer/Jockey Combo- (Michael Maker / Irad Ortiz Jr.).

#8 – Mackenzie's Novva ran third in the first two races of his career He has good Trainer/Jockey Combo-(Kenneth McPeek / Julien Leparoux). Trainer Kenneth McPeek wins 25% of the races when bringing a horse back for the 2nd on the grass race. I think the shorter distance is a positive move.

#1 – Close Knit ran third in the first race of his career at today's distance and return to the turf.

Play: $0.50 Pick 4-Cost: $96.00

Race 8:   2, 3, 7, 9, 11, 12

Race 9:   5, 9

Race 10: 1, 3, 6, 10

Race 11: 1, 6, 8, 10


Swiss Army's Shawn's Selection

Race 9 Calumet Turf Cup Stakes

PACE SUMMARY:  There is not much pace in this race at all. Looks like the #3 Channel Cat can get the lead easily if he wants it and possibly wire the field. The only other horse that would even want the lead from the beginning is #4 Tide of the Sea.

#3 Channel Cat- When this horse comes out of the gate 1st or 2nd it usually ends up winning. This race with no pace he will either have the lead or sit off of the #4 horse.

#4 Tide of the Sea- Again pace makes the race I see this horse being one of the two leaders with no pressure. Luis Saez has been great this year and is always great to have on a front runner.

#1 Imperador- Should get a nice trip from the rail and will be close enough to the pace to make a run at the end.

Plays:
$20 win #3
$1 Exbox 1,3,4
$1 Tribox 1,3,6

Race 10 - Franklin-Simpson Stakes

PACE SUMMARY:  There is speed in this race as multiple horses will try for the lead and create a hot pace. The #1 Into the Sunrise, #6 Next, and #11 Bodenheimer all will be trying for the lead. There are also a few other wildcards who could try or press the pace.

#7 Annex- A closer that is cutting back in distance that will get a hot pace to run at. He has won half of his starts on turf in his career. After some bad finishes with wide trips and a sloppy main track put together a good 2nd place finish last time out.  Workouts since that race have been great.

#10 Point Me By- The most lightly raced horse in the field but has won 2 of his 3 races. Should sit about mid pack and make a good run. Luis Saez back aboard after the win in the Grade 1 Bruce D.

#8 Tango Tango Tango- 20/1 ML is way too high for this horse. Has won finshed in the exacta in all 3 turf starts and just finshed 2nd behind the ML favorite #10  Point Me By. Maybe with the cut back in distance he will turn the tables on the #10.

Plays:
$20 win #7
$1 Exbox 7,8,10
$1 Tribox 7,8,10
$2 WPS #8

Race 11 - MSW

PACE SUMMARY:   Very hard to figure out the pace in this maiden race with all the horses being lightly raced with 2 or less career races. Looks like at least the #2 Baj, #6 Greal and #8 Mackenzie's Novva will show speed.

#2 Baj- Had a nice debut where he was out front and weakened to finish 4th. Cuts back a 1/16 and only goes one turn instead of two.

#6 Greal- Another horse in here that showed pace on debut that should improve here. Adds blinkers which could help as well.

#7 Tuskegee Cat- Stretching out after a debut at 5 and half furlongs . Not sure about the long break as this race will come 3 and half months after debut. I'm thinking this horse got extra training and is ready to go.

Plays
$18 win #2
$1 Exbox 2,6,7
$1 tribox 2,6,7


22 to 1 Tom's Tips

Race 9 Calumet Turf Cup Stakes

4 - Tide of the Sea

•            Front Runner, will have the lead with Channel Cat

•            Winner at Kentucky Downs

•            Toss last race, speed then stopped

•            Luis Saez is a hot jockey right now and will get the most out of him

•            Works is average, more of a stretch your legs type of work

6 – Bluegrass Parkway

•            A win and fourth at Ellis Park last 2 outings

•            Won coming from well off the pace at 13-1

•            Race before, he had gate issues but still ran on for fourth

•            4 starts 2 wins after no wins from 3 starts last year

•            Lightly raced, 16 starts with 3 wins 1 second 6 thirds

•            Did Julien Leparoux have a choice for what horse he would ride?

9 – Glynn County

•            I don't like horses coming out of the United Nations race but he has raced since at Arlington and good effort to finish 4th.

•            At Arlington, he shifted wide and closed from a staking position. No match for the front runner or the runner up.

•            Run out of the money once this year

•            4-year-old with a lot of upside

If #15 Dynadrive draws into the race, take a long look at him. Another one on the fast-improving side.

Race 10 - Franklin-Simpson Stakes

5 – Miss Amulet

•            2 races this season and awful results BUT they were:

•            Group 1 races in England and was running against Starman, Empress Josephine, Oxted, Dragon Symbol, Creative Force, Emaraaty Ana, Joan Of Arc, ok she really been up against some of the best sprints in England

•            Last race, the July Cup, she was squeezed at the 2 furlongs out and hung left. Not the best of trips.

•            First race of the year, she raced at the Curragh and 1 mile is too far for her. She is bred to be a sprinter and won a group 2 in Ireland last season. Toss

•            Comment from 1st race of the year, Miss Amulet, whose high-class juvenile form was on good ground, struggled on her delayed reappearance. This is best forgiven. [David Jennings]

6 – Next

•            Speed and should be on the lead or at least near it

•            First race of the year is a toss for me. 10 post and raced 3w on the lead and had nothing left at the end

•            Better effort at Saratoga, gave way at the end

•            I think those distance races and 2 turns is not showing what she can do, is she really a sprinter or just up to 1 mile on a 1 turn track?

•            Winner as a 2-year-old at Kentucky Downs

•            Wesley Ward trained

4 – Easy Time

•            Only all-weather winner but has a second on the turf at distance

•            Will be positioned behind the leaders with cover and then make her move at the top of the stretch

•            First race of her career was at 7 furlongs at Woodbine and a good win

•            Cuts back to a better distance for her

Race 11 - MSW

5 – King Curlin

•            Good overall works especially some of the earlier ones

•            The dam was grade 3 winner (on turf) and won first time out. Also raced and placed at grade 1 level

•            Sire is Curlin enough written

•            Bred for turf but could win on dirt or all-weather

•            Up and coming trainer, Brittany Vandenberg former jockey

•            Career stats 266 starters with 83 wins (32%) 49 seconds 39 thirds (64% in the money) Three years of being a trainer

•            She is doing this with average horse, now let's see what she can do with well-bred horses

10 – Seal Beach

•            2 dirt races and finished second and third

•            Both races were wide trips but showed something at the end

•            Good to fair works but has already proven that he can run on dirt

•            Dam was unraced but family is strong

•            Sire was champion 2-year-old, and his offspring tend to win as 2-year-olds

•            Turf?

6 – Grael

•            Ok works the raced to run third showing speed, needed race

•            Dam ran once at Aqueduct, finished second and never ran again. First foal is a winner at 1 mile

•            Sire ran in Australia at the group 1 level and below. Offspring haven't done much to this point

•            Godolphin owned


Rich's Ranks

Race 9 Calumet Turf Cup Stakes

#3 – Channel Cat

#5 – Arklow

#4 – Tide of the Sea

#9 – Glynn County

Race 10 - Franklin-Simpson Stakes

#6 – Next

#10 - Point Me By

#1 – Into the Sunrise

#3 – County Final

Race 11 - MSW

#7 - Tuskeegee Cat

#10 - Seal Beach

#8 - Mackenzie's Novva

#1 - Close Knit

 

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