It's a big Saturday
of consequential races. We cover three Breeders' Cup "Win and you are In"
million Jockey Club Derby Invitational Stakes at Belmont Park, with the winner earning
a birth in the Breeders' Cup Turf.
invitations to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and Breeders Cup Juvenile,
the Pocahontas Stakes and the Iroquois Stakes start the 2022 road to the
Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby.
the Jockey Club Derby Invitational Stakes is not a graded race; so, we don't
have our Profile of a Winner feature, but we still have the Projected Pace
Setups and commentary from our Pro Subscribers' Section.
track record on a "good" surface suggests he'll love a firm course. BOLSHOI
BALLET could set the pace, perhaps a slow one, from beginning to end. SOLDIER
RISING ran the highest, last race speed figure and could have more in round two
in the states. TOKYO GOLD should benefit from an extra quarter-mile in this
Profile of a Pocahontas Stakes Winner
post time favorite. Only two of the last 10 Pocahontas winners were the
public's first choice. SERENGETI EMPRESS in 2018 and SIGN in 2012. Both went
off as $0.90 favorites. Five of the remaining eight favorites failed finish in
stalk/close. Three of the past 10 champs went wire to wire, but don't be second
or third at the quarter pole as none have won keeping the leader company.
Otherwise, fifth and out has won six of the last 10, but none no more than
eight after the first call have taken the checkered flag.
winner races in the Kentucky Oaks as five of the last 10 winners went on run
the Friday before the Derby. SERENGETI EMPRESS and UNTAPABLE went on to win the
has a win and a second in two at Churchill and has been working well for this
race. HIDDEN CONNECTION won her debut by 7 ½ lengths with the top, last race
speed figure. JOYRUNNER is undefeated in two and won her last by 8 ¼ lengths,
seems to be getting better. GODDESS OF FIRE has a great name and won her debut
at two to one odds.
Profile of an Iroquois Stakes Winner
afraid to play a price. The average winner in the last 10 years paid roughly
$20. The favorite has won just twice in the last decade, DENNIS' MOMENT in 2019
and NOT THIS TIME in 2016. Six of the last 10 post time choices hit the board,
including the two winners and none ran worse than fifth.
Position matters, no horse has won the Iroquois Stakes from the rail and only
SITTING ON GO, last year's champion won from an inside three post, wearing the
black 2. Six of the last 10 broke from gate six and out, the remaining three
from the 4 (2x) and the 5 stalls.
no horse has wired the Iroquois field in the last decade and only the TABULATOR
was close to the lead at the quarter pole, riding shotgun. Otherwise, nine of
the last 10 to run into the winners' circle were fourth and back at the first
to see the winner in the Kentucky Derby, none of the last 10 Iroquois Champs
ran for the roses.
TAP won his debut by 5 ¼ lengths in a nine horse field. MAJOR GENERAL also won
his debut, tying for the top, last race speed figure. ROGER MCQUEEN has won two
in a row and could be at/near his best in the third start off the bench.
GUNTOWN showed major improvement in his second start, more improvement could be
enough to get this title.
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