HRR

 

PODCAST: Special Guest TVG's Todd Schrupp

Horse Racing Radar
Rich Bieglmeier
Rich Bieglmeier is a Staff writer for Horse Racing Radar
Friday, October 1, 2021
Todd reveals a secret, why he's playing hooky on Saturday!
Hint - Arms raised in a V
Todd tells an all too familiar sad story all horseplayers share - the big one that got away thanks to changing the ticket at the last minute.

The TVG host and The Players' Edge Podcast crew make some picks, including:

 Rodeo Drive Stakes
Awesome Again Stakes
John Henry Turf Championship Stakes

Unfortunately, the last race of the show was not recorded - damn technology - but you can watch it in full on YouTube at: https://youtu.be/7uNoaH2_KTc

Make sure you follow Todd on Twitter at: https://twitter.com/ToddTVG


LISTEN:



WATCH:



THE PICKS:

Terry "Hollywood" Hay's Handicap

Santa Anita Race 9 - $300,000 RODEO DRIVE STAKES – GRADE I

Race Scenario: Going to Vegas will go for the lead. Neige Blanche will be in mid-pack and try to catch Going to Vegas at the finish. Dogtag and Luck will close from deep, and I think Dogtag if she can stay out of trouble will win.

#1 - Dogtag bobbled at the start of his last race and lost a little ground running second. She likes the track and distance, has one of the best turf speeds among today's starters (tie) and a good 5F workout on 22Sep at SA 5f ft 1:00.2 H 1/37.

#4 - Going to Vegas has won two races in a row at a 1-1/8 and now stretches out to a 1-1/4 which she has performed well at. She has the highest last race speed rating and shares the best turf speed with Dogtag.

#8 - Luck won her first race easily after coming in from Europe. Flavien Prat is playing musical chairs with Umberto Rispoli as they changed mounts for this contest, Pratt is winning 27% of his races this year verses Rispoli who is winning 20% of his races. She has a several good workouts including a 5F workout (Sep-22) SA tr.t 5f ft :59.3 H 3/18.

#3 - Neige Blanche has won two of her last three races and has Jockey Juan Hernandez who in last 7 days has this record (13 5-2-2).

Santa Anita Race 10 - $300,000 AWESOME AGAIN STAKES – GRADE I

Race Scenario: Tizamagician and Medina Spirit will go for the lead. Express Train will stay mid-pack and close in the stretch and try to win, Idol will close from a little farther back than Express Train and will also close to try and win, but I think Medina Spirit will hold on and be the successful one.

#5– Medina Spirit won his last race leading all the way. He has never finished out of the money winning 50% of his races.  He has several great works including a Sharp 5F workout (Sep-25) SA 5f ft :59.4 H 4/89.

#1 – Tizamagician ran second at 1-¼ and cuts back in distance which can only help his chances. His Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today's starters, and he has a good workout 5F workout (Sep-26) SA 5f ft 1:00.1 H 6/89.

#3 – Express Train had trouble in his last race and finished 6th. He will need to stay out of trouble and break well if he is to finish well. He has a good workout 26Sep SA 5f ft 1:00.1 H 6/89.

#8– Idol won her last race closing from deep and then took a seven-month break. He has a good 6f 26Sep SA 6f ft 1:12 H 1/11 for his return to racing.

Santa Anita Race 11 - $200,000 JOHN HENRY TURF CHAMPIONSHIP STAKES – GRADE II

Race Scenario: Acclimate and Neptune's Storm will go to the lead. United will close from mid-pack and Red King will close from deeper to try and win the race. I think United will be the winner.

#4 – United ran 4th in his last race as the favorite but lack room in the upper stretch. His best dirt speed is fastest among today's starters. He has a bullet workout on 29Sep SA 3f ft :36.2 H 1/8.

#6 – Acclimate will break on top and try and lead all the way. He has one of the highest last race speed ratings (tie). He is having a good year finishing 85% of the time in the money, winning 14% of the time.

#10 – Red King lacked room when closing from deep in his last race, but still was only beaten 1-3/4 lengths. He has finished 60% of the time in the money during his career, winning 20% of the races.

#3 – Neptune's Storm has finished 77% in the money during his career winning 32% of the races.

$.50 Pick3:
1, 4 with 5 with 3, 4, 6, 10
Cost $4.00

$.50 Pick4:
8th Race: 1, 4, 5, 6 -
9th Race: 1, 3, 4, 8
10th Race: 1, 3, 5
11th Race: 3, 4, 6, 10
Cost $96.00


Swiss Army Shawn's Selections

Santa Anita Race 9 - $300,000 RODEO DRIVE STAKES – GRADE I

Pace Summary: Not much pace to speak looks like #4 Going to Vegas will get the lead easily as long as she wants it.

#1 Dogtag- Performs well at the track and distance and I love the jockey switch to Joe Bravo. This horse tends to find some trouble and ends up finishing 2nd. This time I think the horse will be closer to the pace and the jockey change should help avoid trouble and win this race.

#8 Luck- Won her US debut now gets Flavian Prat. Performed very well in 4 her 5 career races.

#4 Going to Vegas- Could be the lone speed if she wants to go that way. She's actually done better since the blinkers came off and she didn't break out on the lead. Does well at track and distance.

Plays:
$20 win #1
$2 exbox 1,8

Santa Anita Race 10 - $300,000 AWESOME AGAIN STAKES – GRADE I

Pace Summary:  All these horses besides the outside two have speed. This race could set up for the outside two horses.

#7 Tripoli- Has really found something with jockey Taigo Pereira and also dirt.  Is a half-length away from being 4 for 4 with Pereira and 3 for 3 on dirt.  Should also have dueling leaders in front of him to run down.

#8 Idol- Concerned about the 7-month layoff but ultimately there is a lot of talent here and the race sets up good for him. He's also been working out really well.

#1 Tizmagician- Likes Santa Anita and has done well with Prat aboard. Has speed but doesn't need the lead just needs to find a good spot from the rail out of the gate.

Plays:
$20 win #7
$2 Exbox 1,7,8
$1 tribox 1,7,8

Santa Anita Race 11 - $200,000 JOHN HENRY TURF CHAMPIONSHIP STAKES – GRADE II

Pace Summary: There's some speed in this one and i would anticipate a speed duel between #3 Neptune's Storm and #6 Acclimate. Closers will be coming.

#12 Friar's Road- This horse tried turf for the first-time last time out and he loved it winning impressively. Could get a nice set up for him with the speed in this race.  He has to get a good trip from the outside post that would be the biggest concern.

#4 United- That most accomplished horse in the race that also likes Santa Anita and the distance. The last 6 times out he has won every other race well he finished 4th last time out so if the streak continues he wins.

#7 Master Piece- with the anticipated fast pace this horse will be there as he wants to come from way behind.

Plays:
$20 win #12
$2 exbox 4,7,12
$1 Tri 4,7,12


22 to 1 Tom's Tips

Santa Anita Race 9 - $300,000 RODEO DRIVE STAKES – GRADE I

#2 – Fast Jet Court

•            Issues with start in last race but go going at the end to run fourth

•            First start in US after racing in Brazil win 6 wins at various levels

•            Will be running late based on the last race

•            Faced males in some of her races in Brazil at there group level

•            Her last race in Brazil was fast and impressive with a 7 length win under wraps

•            Dam has produced 2 starters with 2 winners (one on turf and the other on dirt) both have won stakes races

•            Negative – distance of race, she done very well at sprints but only 1 win listed at a distance of greater than 1 mile.

#8 - Luck

•            Good debut in the US in the Optional Claimers with issues and still won

•            Excellent works (on dirt) since last race :59.3, 1:00.3, :46.3

•            Two turf works at Del Mar

•            Breeding on the Dam side – 5 stakes winners (4 on the flat and 1 jumpers) from 14 foals to race. All at distances races of greater than 1 1/16. Dam was a group 3 winner at distance of 1 ¼ mile.

•            Fitness isn't the issue; level of racing is. Can she move up to grade 1 level?

•            Negative: Level of racing in France is only at the Handicap and Allowance races with 3 of those races on the all-weather with 3 starts 2 wins and 1 second.

•            Maybe should be running on the dirt?

#3 – Neige Blanche

•            Winner last out in listed race

•            Strong rally to win

•            Race had grade stakes winners in the running, so faced better horses than the level of the race?

•            Last 4 races have been without Lasix and she has running better than first 3 races in the states (these were all grade 1 races so level made be ?)

•            Group 3 winner in France at Lyon

•            Four of her races in France were on the all-weather with 2 wins

•            Another one who's stepping up in level

Santa Anita Race 10 - $300,000 AWESOME AGAIN STAKES – GRADE I

7 – Tripoli

•            Since moving to the dirt, he has been at tiger with 2 wins and 1 second.

•            Speed numbers have been in the triple figures for all of these races

•            Pacific Classic raced inside and move 2 wide to win

•            Good works coming into this race

8 – Idol

•            Win at grade 1 and then layoff

•            Lightly raced 4-year-old with only 6 starts

•            Never out of the money

•            Moving late so pace up front will help his chances

•            Impressive last work going into this race, 6 furlongs in 1:12

•            Has run well after layoff before, so why not here?

5 – Medina Spirit

•            Winner last out in overnight race, needed start after disappointing Preakness

•            Never out of the money in all starts

•            Works are inline with what he's done before – 59.4, 1:12.3, 1:11.4 since last race

•            Should be on the lead

•            Favorite?

Santa Anita Race 11 - $200,000 JOHN HENRY TURF CHAMPIONSHIP STAKES – GRADE II

4 – United

•            Lack room in last race but still only missed by ¾ of a length

•            2 wins from 4 starts with win the out then win pattern – win today after 4th last time?

•            Good blowout work of :36.2 for prep for today's race

•            Has done well at today's distance, 6 starts 3 wins and 1 second 1 third.

•            Will be moving at the middle of the race to get to the leaders

•            Right level for this horse

5 – Ready Soul

•            Since trainer change, been running well 1 win 1 nose lost and a trouble race.

•            Switch of jockey to John Velazquez because Flavien Prat is riding United

•            Has been running vs some of the horses in lesser race

•            Steps up for the first time against graded company

•            First time at this distance but breeding says, "no problem" and may want longer races?

•            The working pattern for this horse has all been maintenance type works into today's race

11 – Cupid's Claw

•            Traded hands more than a couple of time via the claiming box

•            Put on the dirt, all-weather or turf in last 7 starts with various results

•            Best race was Tokyo City in September of last year

•            Back to turf in last start at Golden Gate, made a move the didn't finish

•            Blinkers off today

•            Mike Smith along for the ride

•            Supplemented into this race

•            Watch the odds, this one could be the surprise winner here.


Rich's Ranks

Santa Anita Race 9 - $300,000 RODEO DRIVE STAKES – GRADE I

8 - Luck

1 - Dogtag

4 – Going to Vegas

3 – Neige Blanche

Santa Anita Race 10 - $300,000 AWESOME AGAIN STAKES – GRADE I

7 - Tripoli

1 - Tizamagician

5 - Medina Spirit

8 - Idol

Santa Anita Race 11 - $200,000 JOHN HENRY TURF CHAMPIONSHIP STAKES – GRADE II

7 - Master Piece

6 - Acclimate

4 - United

1 - Award Winner

 

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