Breeders' Cup Challenge Races - October 10, 2021

Horse Racing Radar
Rich Bieglmeier
Rich Bieglmeier is a Staff writer for Horse Racing Radar
Sunday, October 10, 2021

The Profile of a Spinster Stakes Winner

Although the favorite has won four of the last 10, only one post time choice has found the winners' circle in the last seven-years. The average winner went off at odds close to 5-1 with the highest odds of 7-1.  The typical chalk champ went off at odds of 5/2.

Stalking or closing is the way to the Spinster title. Seven of the last 10 winners ran fourth or back at the first call.

Middle and out appears to be the favored post position. Seven of the last 10 to grab the Spinster hardware wore a 4 or higher with five of seven breaking from gate six and out.

Middle-out stalker/closers at odds close to 5-1 is the profile of a Spinster Stakes for the last decade.

Pace Projections:

The Play from our Premium Picks

LETRUSKA might just be the horse of the year, catch me if you can. BONNY SOUTH tried to catch LETRUSKA in her last, maybe in her second start after a layoff. DUNBAR ROAD is always charging at the end, and inside draw should help her save ground. CRYSTAL BALL has some of the best early and late pace figures in the field.


The Profile of a Bourbon Stakes Winner

Expect to get paid. The average winner paid close to $14. That will work. The race time favorite has won three of the last 10 and finished in the money in seven of 10.

Outside post appear to have an edge with six of 10 Bourbon champions breaking from gates nine and out. The rail did not win in the last decade, but the two horse came home first twice and the five owns the remaining two.

Tactical speed or deep closer, five of the last 10 to score were 10th, 11th or 12th at the first call and the half were 2nd, 3rd or 4th.

Deep closers or right off the pace types with an outside draw at odds of close to 7-1 is the profile of a Bourbon Stake winner for the last 10 years.

Pace Projections:

The Play from our Premium Picks

It's a big pack of two-year-olds, anything can happen. RED DANGER ran the top, last race speed figure. Now he has to prove he can handle two turns. TIZ THE BOMB has won two in a row and has improved from race to race in his three starts. HEAVEN STREET in another that's improved from race to race since moving to grass. PLAY ACTION PASS should be closing late and a bullet work suggests he'll be ready.


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