HRR

Fading the Favs Looks Like the Way

Horse Racing Radar
Rich Bieglmeier
Rich Bieglmeier is a Staff writer for Horse Racing Radar
Saturday, October 24, 2020

It's a busy Saturday of stakes racing for horseplayers with 17 runs with jackpots of $100,000 or more. Belmont Park hosts eight of the 17 in a showcase of New York foaled horses. Many of the races offer bettors good betting value.

Favorites are likely to be competitive, as they are supposed to be, in many of Belmont's big money races, most are moderate choices at lukewarm odds, but none look to be locks. Starting in race 2, the $150,000 Maid of the Mist Stakes.

PARTY AT PAGE (PP: 3 ML 9/5) is the oddsmakers' choice. The folks at Guaranteed Tip Sheet have the two-year old pegged as a major player. She is their second pick but see FROST ME (PP: 5 ML 5/2) pulling off the upset. The daughter of FROSTED is making her second career start after winner her debut with ease. She is going straight from the maiden ranks to a non-graded stakes race. Trainer John Kimmel doesn't enter a bunch at the Maid of Mist, non-graded level, but hits at a muscular 34% when he does.

Race 4, the $150,000 Ticonderoga Stakes is another potential spot for horseplayer to fade the favorites. MYHARTBLONGSTODADDY (PP: 4 ML 7/5) is the heavy pre-race favorite. WAR CANOE (PP: 1 ML 2-1) isn't too far behind the chalk in the oddsmaker's mind.

But it's WEGETSDAMUNNYS (PP: 3 ML 5/2) that could end up making bettors some money. The five-year-old's recent form might turn some off in her first race since September 4th; however, a little deeper dive into trainer Christophe Clement's horse shows she runs her best fresh off the bench. WEGETSDAMUNNYS has two wins in her last 10 starts. Guess what? Both came in first starts off the bench, the last of which was on Belmont's inner turf course, just like today.

Skipping forward to race 7, the $150,000 Hudson Handicap could see the morning line favorite run out of the money if the handicappers at Guaranteed Tips Sheet are right. They note MY BOY TATE (PP: 7 ML 3-1) has "tried Belmont three times and has yet to hit the board." However, they move him up the board if the track is wet, pointing out that the six-year-old gelding has four wins in four races on an off surface.

Coming off his best race speed number wise, BIG ENGINE is on the top of their list. We agree as the son of NOT FOR LOVE and LADY BI BI is one of our Radar Horses. Overall, the Hudson Handicap looks like the best betting race on paper of the eight Belmont Stakes efforts. You can make a case for many of the entrants.

TRIBECCA (PP: 1 ML 8-1) rides the rail that's hitting at 23%.

CAPTAIN BOMBASTIC (PP: 2 ML 6-1) raced three times at Belmont and won all three.

ARTHUR'S HOPE (PP: 3 ML 4-1) has raced at the distance six times, visiting the winners' circle four times.

DUGOUT (PP: 4 ML 10-1) won his last start and could be better in his third start off a layoff. Trainer Larry Rivelli wins after a win at 33% and round threes at 30%.

Even if MY BOY TATE wins, 3-1 morning line odds offer value for the top of your ticket, or anywhere for that matter.

SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN (PP: 7 ML 9/5) is the big-time chalk for the $150,000 Mohawk Stakes in the 8th. Oh, he'll be tough to beat, but looking at his history at the distance and at Belmont shows he is vulnerable. He has a second and a third in a pair of Belmont outings and one win and three seconds in four at the distance. So yeah, he must be on your exotic tickets, but betting against him on the top looks like the right play as it seems to be in most of Belmont's Empire Day Stakes races. 

 

Get today's full picks for all tracks and races at Guaranteed Tip Sheet.