We at Horse Racing Radar analyzed the last 10 Breeders' Cup
Classics to see what the champs had in common. Building the profile of a
Breeders' Cup Classic winner helps us identify which horses in this year's
Classic might have the best chance to visit the winners' circle.
Here is what we found.
Fade the post-time favorite, as only two of the last 10
crossed the finish line first. Another three favorites finished second, and the
remaining five ran out of the money. The average winner paid $12.30, a little
more than 5-1 odds.
Hitting triple digits on the Equibase speed gun is a must.
A perfect 10 for 10 ran a number in excess of 100 in the
start prior to the Breeders' Cup Classic with nine of 10 clearing 100. Only
AMERICAN PHAROAH failed to top a buck ten, registering a 108. Nine of 10 produced
figures of at least 100 in each of the three races leading into the Breeders'
Cup headliner. 2014 winner BAYERN managed to hit the benchmark number in two of
Good form is important as five of the past 10 to wear the
Classic Crown won their previous start, four more finished second and FORT
LARNED collected show money. Only BAYERN and 2012 victor FORT LARNED missed the
board in any of their three races prior to the classic, a 10th and 7th,
Trainer Bob Baffert's BAYERN seems to be the exception to a
lot of rules as he was the only horse of the last 10 not to compete in a Grade
I Stakes effort in the race before the Classic. He won the Grade II,
Pennsylvania Derby at PARX.
Running style has slightly favored off-the-pace horses with
six of the last 10 to take the Classic checkered flag racing fourth or back at
the first call. The other four went wire-to-wire. Because the Breeders' Cup is
run at different tracks from year to year, it is probably wise to review the
host track's speed (and post biases) to determine which style might work best
Lexington, Kentucky's Keeneland Racetrack is the home for
this year's Breeders' Cup on November 6th and 7th. The Breeders Cup Classic is 1 ¼ miles on
dirt. Keeneland didn't run enough at the distance and surface to identify any
trends, so we looked at all races at more than 1 mile.
At Keeneland, early speed and stalking were the preferred
running types for races of more than a mile on October 24, 2020. Ten of the 39
to visit the winners' circle were on the lead at the first call and 23 of 39
were in the front three (first: 10, second: 3, third: 10). Another six winners
were fourth, and seven were fifth at the half. In total, 92% of the winners ran
in the first five at more than a mile on dirt.
Two out of three eventual victors were within the first
three at the second call. Thirty-six of
the 39 to hit the wire first at more than a mile on dirt were in the front four
If form from the recent Keeneland meet holds, then the 2020
Breeders' Cup Classic Champ is likely to be forwardly placed all the way around
Post positions wins and percentage rates for the 39 races at
more than 1 mile on Keeneland dirt:
Hopefully, the Profile of a Breeders' Cup Classic Winner
will help you find this year's champ!
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