HRR

Long Odds to Take Friday's Frost King Stakes

Horse Racing Radar
Rich Bieglmeier
Rich Bieglmeier is a Staff writer for Horse Racing Radar
Thursday, November 19, 2020

Woodbine has a competitive, $100,000 non-graded stakes race on their Friday card. Race eight is the Frost King Stakes. A field of nine will run 6 ½ furlongs on Woodbine's all-weather (AW) track.

Horseplayers might be able to take advantage of the distance and surface bias that favors frontrunners. Meet to date, there have been 92 races at 6 ½ furlongs on the AW course.  Fifty-seven of the 92 to make it to the winners' circle were labeled early speed with 22 leading from gate to wire. On average, the eventual winner ran second at the ¼ and ½ mile markers.

In addition to speed, synthetic surfaces can be tricky for some horses. Fast horses with a history of running well on an all-weather surface might be the way to go in the Frost King Stakes.

SOUPER CLASSY (PP: 2 ML 6-1) is the inside speed. The son of SOUPER SPEEDY got his debut on Woodbine's AW track after the Maiden Optional Claimer was moved off turf. He zoomed to the lead and beat a field of eight by 5 ½ lengths. In round two, he got to make his run on grass, rated, got the lead in the stretch and faded at the wire. Trainer Michael De Paulo put him back on the synthetic stuff in his last. He got to the lead again and faded again. He'll need more stamina today.

Longshot DE ONLY SOLUTION (PP: 4 ML 20-1) has a pair of efforts on his resume, winning his debut on the AW course with Patrick Husbands on the mount. Then he tried his luck at the Frost King level on grass with jockey Luis Contreras. His turf outing did not go well, sprinting to the quarter and half-mile lead, just to back off and finish ahead of just one horse. Trainer Cole Bennett is putting him back on rubber and Husbands is back on top here.

Contreras slides over one spot to ride BLIND TRUST (PP: 5 ML 10-1). The two-year-old isn't a frontrunner but does hug the leaders, checking in third at the first call for both of his races and both on the AW. He missed by a neck in his debut and closed it out and ran into the winners' column in his last.

FOREST SURVIVOR (PP: 9 ML 12-1) gets the outside post and is the last of the out of the gate sprinters. He's led the pack at the quarter mile marker in his last three starts, including a $250k non-graded try in his last race. He faded hard in the quarter-million race. Despite hitting the wall, we doubt owner Bruno Schickedanz tries to switch tactics today.

Of the four fast ones with all-weather experience, the longest shot of them all appears to be the one with the best chance to make the most of the distance/surface bias. He has the best early pace figures in the field and has the highest AW speed number for this crew.

 

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