Woodbine has a competitive, $100,000 non-graded stakes race
on their Friday card. Race eight is the Frost King Stakes. A field of nine will
run 6 ½ furlongs on Woodbine's all-weather (AW) track.
Horseplayers might be able to take advantage of the distance
and surface bias that favors frontrunners. Meet to date, there have been 92
races at 6 ½ furlongs on the AW course.
Fifty-seven of the 92 to make it to the winners' circle were labeled
early speed with 22 leading from gate to wire. On average, the eventual winner
ran second at the ¼ and ½ mile markers.
In addition to speed, synthetic surfaces can be tricky for
some horses. Fast horses with a history of running well on an all-weather
surface might be the way to go in the Frost King Stakes.
SOUPER CLASSY (PP: 2 ML 6-1) is the inside speed. The son of
SOUPER SPEEDY got his debut on Woodbine's AW track after the Maiden Optional
Claimer was moved off turf. He zoomed to the lead and beat a field of eight by
5 ½ lengths. In round two, he got to make his run on grass, rated, got the lead
in the stretch and faded at the wire. Trainer Michael De Paulo put him back on
the synthetic stuff in his last. He got to the lead again and faded again.
He'll need more stamina today.
Longshot DE ONLY SOLUTION (PP: 4 ML 20-1) has a pair of
efforts on his resume, winning his debut on the AW course with Patrick Husbands
on the mount. Then he tried his luck at the Frost King level on grass with
jockey Luis Contreras. His turf outing did not go well, sprinting to the
quarter and half-mile lead, just to back off and finish ahead of just one
horse. Trainer Cole Bennett is putting him back on rubber and Husbands is back
on top here.
Contreras slides over one spot to ride BLIND TRUST (PP: 5 ML
10-1). The two-year-old isn't a frontrunner but does hug the leaders, checking
in third at the first call for both of his races and both on the AW. He missed
by a neck in his debut and closed it out and ran into the winners' column in
FOREST SURVIVOR (PP: 9 ML 12-1) gets the outside post and is
the last of the out of the gate sprinters. He's led the pack at the quarter
mile marker in his last three starts, including a $250k non-graded try in his
last race. He faded hard in the quarter-million race. Despite hitting the wall,
we doubt owner Bruno Schickedanz tries to switch tactics today.
Of the four fast ones with all-weather experience, the
longest shot of them all appears to be the one with the best chance to make the
most of the distance/surface bias. He has the best early pace figures in the
field and has the highest AW speed number for this crew.
Get today's full picks for all tracks and races at Guaranteed Tip Sheet.