They've been knocked down and not sure they can recover.
Rich, yours truly, put a beatdown on the crew with his Gulfstream's Emerald
Downs picks last week. It was Jorge Masvidalesque.
His suggested wagers paid more than $6,000.
This week, one of Penn National's top jockeys, Tyler Conner
joins the podcast crew to talk Friday night racing, under the lights at Penn
National. Make sure you give it a listen. Like all of them, it's another great
show and could be the most profitable thing you do all week.
Time to defend my title.
Penn National Race 5: $8,000 Claiming
UPDATE: Jockey Tyler Conner let
us know the 3 and 7 could scratch here, picks are updated to reflect scratches
but not commentary.
#1 Tipsy Moose - Has some speed from inside gate. Jockey is winning at over 31% for the
year. He just won 4 races on Wednesday
night. 3 of those were Timothy Krieser trained.
The #1 lost to the #7 horse 2 starts back by a length and ¾. That race
he was not very close to the pace and tried to close 3 wide. He should be
closer to and maybe even on the pace this race.
#3 Jeezum Jim - Has speed and has one way to go and that's
to the front. Has been running in double the claiming price 16k. This is
usually a key winning angle dropping in class with speed. If he is the pace setter, he has a good shot
to win. Concerned on the 0 for 8 from
this distance but again that was against tougher and does have two 2nd place
finishes at the distance.
#7 Pictor - gets a downgrade in jockey going from Tyler
Conner to Maicol J.Inirio. Will be close to pace with 4 wins out of 8 from this
6 furlong distance with 2 seconds.
$2 Picks 4: 1/2-4/ 2,6/1,4,6,8
$5 Ex 1/5,8
I like #4 Dupree in this race. He has been off 55 days but has been working
well to return to the races. He gets Tyler Conner is in the irons and is
trained by Brandon Kulp. That jockey-trainer combo has a win percentage of
34.65 in the past.
#2 They Shot Sonny is down in class and has been 80% in the
money at Penn National.
#1 – Tipsy Moose is my 3rd pick. He is a speed horse and has
won 25% of his races at Penn National.
$6.00 to win #4
$10.00 Exacta- #4 / 1, 2
#3 Jeezum Jim is dropping from $16k and has early speed in a race with speed up
front. He has 3 wins at Penn but has never won going 6 furlongs. This appears
to be the spot. Maybe get a nice odds based on the field he's running against.
$2 Exacta Box on 1-3-4-8
Speed kills at 6 furlongs on Penn National dirt. It's catch me of you can with
#7 Pictor, I don't think they will.
$1 Pick 4: 4/4/5/4
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,4/1,4,8,9/3,5/3,4,6
Penn National Race 6: $25,000 Optional Claiming
#4 Venomous State - Has speed will either be on pace or right near it. Has won 11 of 24 at this 6 furlong distance
and is 12 out of 37 at Penn. Has won last 4 races Gonzalez has been on. Fits another betting angle first off a claim
and jumping in class.
#2 Tyler - Should be near or on pace. Not crazy about the
low percentage jockey 4% but he has been around for a while and does good on
this horse. Has been in exacta 5 of last 6 races. 7 of 14 at Penn in exacta
#3 Fu Man Sue - Another one that wants to be out front or be
right there from the start. Has 6 lifetime races and has been in exacta in 5 of
those. Maicol Inirio has been on him all 6 races. First time with a new jockey Ricardo Chiappe.
$10 win #4
$1 Exacta Key Box 2/3,4
I love horses that are versatile. #4 - Venomous State can win either on top
or come from behind and is going for a hat trip, loves the track and distance.
#3 Fu Man Sue has done nothing but win in his short racing
career, winning 50% of his starts and finishing 5 out of 6 in the money.
#6 Tip for Tap is my long shot, dropping in class and back
at a track he likes.
$6.00 to Win #4
$4.00 Exacta- #4 / 3, 6
$2.00 Exacta box 3, 4, 6,
#8 Hard Belle race to a good 3rd verse similar for the first run over the
track. Trainer has a 25% win record with 2nd starts of same track and this
horse should show speed from the gate. Six maintenance workouts at Delaware
prepared this horse for a good effort.
$20 to Win on #8
$1 Exacta Box of 2-6-8-10
#4 Venomous State has won his last four at Penn National and is making his
second start after a layoff, concerned he could step backwards in round two
like he did in his last, second start off the break. #9 Town Camp is my price
here, he showed speed for the first time in the last four. Looking beyond the
last four, he was on the pace and won four of the previous six on/near the
lead, which fits perfectly here.
$3 Exacta 4/1,8,9
$3 Exacta 9/1,4,8
Penn National Race 7: $16,000 Claiming
#6 Coach Adams - Has one way to go and that's right to the front. Has the most
speed in the race and there doesn't seem to be anybody else that would fight
him for the lead. 3rd start after a 3 month break. Has done ok at Penn in 3
starts has a 2nd and 3rd.
#2 General Bellamy -
That combo again! First off of a claim with that same angle again claimed for
8k and racing in 16k. Last 2 races raced in sloppy conditions. Does better on a
# 3 Holiday Bonus -
Has been racing against tougher at Parx. Hasn't won a race in a while and is
only 3 for 47 life. Not good value for
all of that but will be facing much easier.
$10 Win #6
$2 Exacta 2,6/2,3,6
#2 General Bellamy is having a very good year finishing 78% of the time in
the money. He has a good jockey/trainer combo and likes Penn and the distance.
#1A My Train is very
consistent and always tries hard.
#3 Holiday Bonus is
dropping in class and has the best per race winnings.
$4.00 to Win & Place #2
$2.00 Exacta- #4 / 1, 3
$2.00 Exacta box 1, 3, 4
#2 General Bellamy appears on paper to be the one to beat. Off a claim for $8k
by a trainer who has 32% win rate of first claims and is 32% with claimers
moving up 2 classes. He should sit behind the speed and be moving on the turn
to take the lead. After the claim, the trainer worked the horse 3 times at
:36.1, :36.1 and :36.4 showing to me the trainer prepares this horse for this
spot. The top jockey at Penn doesn't
$20 to Win on #2
$5 Exacta Box of 2-6
#2 General Bellamy, #3 Holiday Bonus, #4 Three Phase and #5 Machtree all raced
at Parx before coming to Penn National. Looking at comparable races, #3 Holiday
Bonus and #5 Machtree appear to be 1 to 1 ½ lengths better than the other two.
Going to go with #5 Machtree as he should be in front of #3 Holiday Bonus out
of the box.
$10 to Win #5 Machtree
$2 Trifecta 3,5/3,5/1A,2,4
Penn National Race 8: $5,000 Claiming
#8 L.A. House - Has looked good the last 2 races with jockey Vladamir Diaz.
Seems to have change running tactics from speed to a stalker sitting off the
pace. Won last start got second before that; 8 out of 14 in the money at Penn.
#4 Allison seems to do best closing; 16 of 30 in exacta in
life 7 of 12 at Penn. A lot of other
horses in here don't have those results.
At least I know the horse will be around at the end and you have one of
the leading jockeys in Tyler Conner. First off the claim.
#6 No Question - first off the claim has been running at
Woodbine and Fort Erie; definitely should be easier competition. Only ran at Penn once and did not place.
Another one that should come off the pace.
$1 Exacta Key Box 8/1,4,6
$1 Exacta Key Box 1/4,6
This is a very open race. I like #4 - Allison K with Tyler Conner riding.
Cutting back in distance which should help.
#6 No Question closes well. He has a good jockey/trainer
#1 Il Mio Amore is my longshot. He is very competitive in
the money 10 out of 13 races this year.
$2.00 Exacta- #1, 4, 6, / 1, 3, 4, 5, 6
#1 II Mio Amore had 19 starts at Penn with 3 wins and 14 times in the money.
Took II Mio Amore a few races to break from the non-winners of 3 level and the
$10k non-winners of 4 races beyond her ability at this time. Last race back
down to $5k and finished best of rest 8 lengths behind the winner finishing up
on the rail. In the comments of the horses past races, she seems to like the
rail position (not all) so post 1 may suit this horse. The morning line odds
appear high to me based on last race and went off at 21 to 1 and finished 2nd.
Nice value here.
$14 to Win on #1
Exacta Box (if I had money left) 1-6-7-10
#4 Allison is a horse for the Penn National Course with four of her six wins in
30 races. It seems like jockey Tyler Conner gets the best out of her as he
guided her to the quartet of Penn Ws. There really isn't much in the way of
speed, #3 First Forever and #8 L. A. House have flashed early foot in the past
and could try to steal an easy lead here.
$10 to Win #5 Machtree
$2 Trifecta 3,5/3,5/1A,2,4