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Looking for Mudders on a Wet Louisiana Day

Horse Racing Radar
Rich Bieglmeier
Saturday, December 12, 2020

It's Champions Day in Louisiana today. The Fair Grounds hosts seven, thoroughbred stakes races with at least $100,000 in prize money and three-quarter horses stakes with 100k on the line. The bumper car sprinters really aren't my thing. Although, Prairie Meadows on-air analyst John Hernandez once told me quarters are the easiest to handicap, telling me "Straight and fast" is the way.

From experience and 1000s of videos, if the outside horse in quarter horse racing is straight and fast, take it!

As for the seven thoroughbred Championship races, let's see if we can find a few mudders; maybe not winners, but horses that do well on an off track as the Fair Grounds course is listed as muddy today.

Fair Grounds Race 5 - $100,000 LA CHAMPIONS DAY LASSIE STAKES

TWIN SISTERS (PP: 7 ML 12-1) is the only horse in the field with a race over a wet track, winning her debut on a good surface. She bombed in her last on a fast course, maybe she likes a heavy track, a potential turf horse maybe?

Fair Grounds Race 7 - $100,000 LA CHAMPIONS DAY LADIES SPRINT

It seems like this entire group has done well on a wet surface. However, one stands out. MR. AL'S GIRL (PP: 2 ML 3-1) has run on an off-track 10 times and won seven of them, which includes the mare's most recent Fair Grounds win.

Fair Grounds Race 8 – $100,000 LA CHAMPIONS DAY LADIES TURF STAKES

For now, at least, it looks as if the Championship Turf races are going to remain on grass; however, there are a lot of scratches.

There isn't a ton of value as the two favorites, IS TOO (PP: 2 ML 3-1) and ROOM TO FINISH (PP: 5 ML 5/2) are the only ladies in this spot with a recent run on a wet turf course. ROOM TO FINSIH won on the yielding track and IS TOO came home second in a different race.

Race 9 - $100,000 LA CHAMPIONSHIP DAY SPRINT STAKES

There are horses for courses and maybe horses for conditions? Race 9 has three longshots that are undefeated when it's wet, but struggle when conditions are fast. X CLOWN (PP: 5 ML 20-1) has two trips on a good surface and won them both, just one W in five fast tries. CLASSY JOHN (PP: 6 ML 15-1) is also two and Oh in the slop, just one for 11 otherwise. YANKEE SEVEN (PP: 7 ML 8-1) makes it three at two wins in two off track outings, managed one win in 11 in better conditions.

Race 10 - $100,000 LA CHAMPIONS DAY JUVENILE STAKES

It's two-year-olds and a deep field so you have no idea what you are going to get. EBONY FLASH (PP: 1 ML 15-1), SIR WELLINGTON (PP: 7 ML 3-1) and COHERE (PP: 9 ML 8-1) all reached the winners' circle in their lone muddy runs.

Fair Grounds Race 11 - $100,000 LA CHAMPIONS DAY TURF STAKES

Another turf start that could get moved to the dirt track but remains on the grass as of now. This one might be more a case of fading the favorite than looking for a shot. NINETY ONE ASSAULT (PP: 9 ML 9/5) has raced on a downgraded turf course in five of his last 10 starts, won once, finished a well beaten second in another and ended way out of the money in the other three.

Fair Grounds Race 12 - $150,000 LA CHAMPIONS DAY CLASSIC STAKES

Oddly, all the horses in this race have done well on a wet course. As such, the race should play out to form. If that's true, SHANG (PP: 7 ML 8/5) lives up to the morning line favorite status and adds to his Fair Grounds success, four wins and a second in five races at FG to date.

 

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