It's a lazy Sunday for big money races with just the
$100,000 Bay Ridge Stakes at Aqueduct on the docket. A filed of six fillies and
mares will race 1 1/8 miles on the main track. It's a two-turn affair with the
horses hanging a left turn almost as soon as they exit the gates.
As one might expect, the rail has an advantage with the
early turn. The one horse has found the winners' circle on two of the 10 starts at 1
1/8 miles on dirt, meet to date. Unfortunately for horseplayers that seek
value, LUCKY MOVE gets the rail draw at even-money odds.
Despite the strong post bias and heavy odds, fading LUCKY
MOVE at the top of the ticket might be the right move. This will be her first
race since October 24, 2020. The six-year-old mare finished ninth in her most
recent first start following a layoff. To be fair, she ran her top speed number
five back, which was her first effort following four-months in the barn. However, that was at Delaware Park and she's struggled to
find the winners circle in Queens with a pair of seconds and a third in four
Co-favorite, MRS. ORB (PP: 6 ML 6/5) has been much better at Aqueduct
than LUCKY MOVE. The Michael Miceli trainee has run around the Aqueduct course
eight times with three wins, two seconds and a third.
The five-year-old daughter of ORB and GYPSY ANGEL is due as
she's finished the runner up in her last four races. She should be at/near her
best in the Bay Ridge as it is her third start after a two-month rest.
As the odds suggest, LUCKY MOVE or MRS. ORB are most likely
to end Sunday holding the Bay Ridge title. They duo appear to be the class of
the field by a decent margin. FIRENZE FREEDOM (PP: 2 ML 10-1) and SINGULAR
SENSATION (PP: 6-1) could sneak in for second, maybe, but would most likely
need something unusual to happen for either to capture the checkered flag.
We tilt towards FIRENZE FREEDOM as the one with the best
chance to pull of the upset. She's making her first starts since October 10th.
She ran a bullet work for trainer Kelly Breen on November 29th and
is coming off her second win in eight races. Perhaps, the filly is finding her
SINGULAR SENSATION (PP: 5 ML 6-1) is making her third start
after a layoff, a classic handicapping angle. However, her second start off the
bench is a touch concerning when you look at the numbers despite a better speed
figure. She ran a mile last out versus a 1 1/16 miles in her previous go.
Although she shortened up by a sixteenth mile, her ½ and ¾ mile fractions were
slower. Read enough stuff around here and you'll know that's a no-no in my
Turf instead of dirt and KILKEA (PP: 4 ML 12-1) would be a
consideration as she has two wins and three seconds in five on grass, but just
one well beaten second in three tries on dirt. How well beaten? Try 9 ½
lengths; albeit, to MAKINGCENTS who went to win an allowance and non-graded
stakes races afterwards. That leaves SKY KITTEN (PP: 3 ML 50-1) who looks to be
in way over her head.
At the wire, MRS. ORB's Aqueduct experience should win out
with the even money LUCKY MOVE completing the super chalky exacta.
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