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It’s the Favorites in the Bay Ridge

Horse Racing Radar
Rich Bieglmeier
Rich Bieglmeier is a Staff writer for Horse Racing Radar
Sunday, December 13, 2020

It's a lazy Sunday for big money races with just the $100,000 Bay Ridge Stakes at Aqueduct on the docket. A filed of six fillies and mares will race 1 1/8 miles on the main track. It's a two-turn affair with the horses hanging a left turn almost as soon as they exit the gates.

As one might expect, the rail has an advantage with the early turn. The one horse has found the winners' circle on two of the 10 starts at 1 1/8 miles on dirt, meet to date. Unfortunately for horseplayers that seek value, LUCKY MOVE gets the rail draw at even-money odds.

Despite the strong post bias and heavy odds, fading LUCKY MOVE at the top of the ticket might be the right move. This will be her first race since October 24, 2020. The six-year-old mare finished ninth in her most recent first start following a layoff. To be fair, she ran her top speed number five back, which was her first effort following four-months in the barn. However, that was at Delaware Park and she's struggled to find the winners circle in Queens with a pair of seconds and a third in four tries. 

Co-favorite, MRS. ORB (PP: 6 ML 6/5) has been much better at Aqueduct than LUCKY MOVE. The Michael Miceli trainee has run around the Aqueduct course eight times with three wins, two seconds and a third.  

The five-year-old daughter of ORB and GYPSY ANGEL is due as she's finished the runner up in her last four races. She should be at/near her best in the Bay Ridge as it is her third start after a two-month rest.

As the odds suggest, LUCKY MOVE or MRS. ORB are most likely to end Sunday holding the Bay Ridge title. They duo appear to be the class of the field by a decent margin. FIRENZE FREEDOM (PP: 2 ML 10-1) and SINGULAR SENSATION (PP: 6-1) could sneak in for second, maybe, but would most likely need something unusual to happen for either to capture the checkered flag.

We tilt towards FIRENZE FREEDOM as the one with the best chance to pull of the upset. She's making her first starts since October 10th. She ran a bullet work for trainer Kelly Breen on November 29th and is coming off her second win in eight races. Perhaps, the filly is finding her form?

SINGULAR SENSATION (PP: 5 ML 6-1) is making her third start after a layoff, a classic handicapping angle. However, her second start off the bench is a touch concerning when you look at the numbers despite a better speed figure. She ran a mile last out versus a 1 1/16 miles in her previous go. Although she shortened up by a sixteenth mile, her ½ and ¾ mile fractions were slower. Read enough stuff around here and you'll know that's a no-no in my book.

Turf instead of dirt and KILKEA (PP: 4 ML 12-1) would be a consideration as she has two wins and three seconds in five on grass, but just one well beaten second in three tries on dirt. How well beaten? Try 9 ½ lengths; albeit, to MAKINGCENTS who went to win an allowance and non-graded stakes races afterwards. That leaves SKY KITTEN (PP: 3 ML 50-1) who looks to be in way over her head.

At the wire, MRS. ORB's Aqueduct experience should win out with the even money LUCKY MOVE completing the super chalky exacta.

 

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