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Shawn Handicaps Our X-Mas Eve Contest Track

Horse Racing Radar
Shawn Drupp
Wednesday, December 23, 2020
Welcome to another episode of Shawn's Silks where this week I decided instead of a story that I would test my handicapping skills on the TAMPA BAY DOWNS HANDICAPPING CONTEST track for Christmas Eve. Here we go...

RACE 1

Top pick #3 Mast Cove – Not crazy about any horse in here but it looked like it comes down to 2 horses. I chose to go with the #3 over the #5 since there will be more value there. Other reasons the #3 Mast Cove likes Tampa Bay and has been in the exacta 5 of 9 starts here. Faced more difficult at Indiana 2 and 3 starts ago.

Have to use #5 Do What It Takes - Looks to be the post time favorite.  Has been beaten the last 3 races and was the post time favorite in all of them.

Plays- $20 win #3 $10 DD 3,5/6


RACE 2

Top pick #6 Workinonbeingsingle -  This horse has the potential to get right out to the lead from the start. If that's the case I like this horse to win the race.  I always like the angle of a horse having speed and then dropping in class.  I would love to see the price hold at the ML of 4 to 1 or better.

Others to use:  #2 She's An Alpha missed out by a head last start; only concern is the start was 10 months ago. Seems to be working out well and in both starts got bumped around. Being fresh and having a clean trip this horse could be right there.  #4 Bionic Bottle first time starter and gets jockey Daniel Centeno.  Didn't like much else in the race so I was going with a fresh face to add to the exotics.

Plays- $20 win #6 $1 ex box and tri box 2,4,6


RACE 3

Top pick #7 Young Thomas - Looks like the horse will like going long and the turf. All 3 races so far has only tried 5 furlongs. Last time finally got to make a turf debut but again no factor at 5 furlongs. Let's try to get some value here and say the distance is what will change this horse's fortunes around. The horse has the connections with Camacho and Joseph to do it.

Others to use: #5 Mi Cleopatra and I - On Turf and going long for first time. Has the best record with 2 wins in 4 starts and a 3rd. With great connections as well I have to use this horse. #1 Beauty Genius will be around at the finish so you have to use in all the exotics.

Plays- $20 win #7 $1 ex box and tri box 1,5,7 

 

RACE 4

Top pick #4 The Roving Kind - There doesn't seem to be much pace in this race at all. That is the first thing that jumps out to me and is the reason I'm picking the #4 as he has shown speed before.  This will be this horse's 6th race and 6th different track. This horse was off for 10 months before returning in September.  This will be the 3rd race on the comeback which is usually the magic number to start seeing results and more importantly a victory.

Others to use:  #7 Big Boss Lady - Has had some success on the turf as he has finished 2nd  twice in 3 career starts on the turf. Does like to finish 2nd has he has finished 2nd in 6 of 15 lifetime races . #3 U S S Lois only second career turf start the first came in the last race which he was in 25k claiming this one is for 8k.

Plays- $20 win #4 1 ex box and tri box 3,4,7


RACE 5

Top pick #1 Gold Country - Adding the blinkers and getting the rail for the only horse that looks like the game plan would be to go right out in front.

Others to use: #10 Donya's Magic - Has some pace from the outside post so should be able to sit right off the #1. First try at Tampa after first 3 races of career were at Delaware . Last race was a couple months ago and was first try on turf and finished a solid 3rd.  First off a claim for the trainer and seems to be training ok.  #2 Bee Danna dropping in class has been coming from way out of it. Needs to be closer here and then may get a piece

Plays- $20 win #1 $5 exbox 1,10 $1 tribox 1,10/1,2,10/all


RACE 6

Top pick #6 Diamond Ore - This will be her firs race outside of Canada. Did ok at Woodbine and will be the favorite here in a softer spot.  As long as the trip wasn't too taxing I like her to win this race. There won't be much value here. However, I think with her style some speed, good connections, and Camacho hitting at 31% for the barn is just to much to go against.

Others to use: #2 Zarella – Improving every time out. This will be her 4th start and 4th different track maybe she will like it here. Will need some pace to run at and to  get a clean trip. #3 JD's Vista not muich to go on but the one career start was at Churchill and she was overmatched.  In that race she was 40-1 and had a bad start. With a clean start this horse will definitely fit in here better.

Plays - $20 win #6. $1 key exbox 6/2,3, single 6 in all pick 3 or pick 4's or doubles.

                                                                               

RACE 7

Top pick #4 Marksman - Has been right there in his last 4 races.  I like the jockey switch last race from Garcia to Centeno. I'm hoping he will get a better trip and not 4 wide like last race.

Others to use: #2 Recorder I like the early speed since that usually does well on Tampa's turf. I will take the chance he likes the turf as this will be his first start on the turf. #6 Made My Day looks to be able to stalk or close. I will hope this horse is closer to the pace today and finishes well.

Plays- $20 win #4 $1 key exbox 4/26


RACE 8

Top pick #9 No Time To Yawn - Has speed which will definitely help with the flow of this race and the post position. A lot of these horses have had a bunch of tries to break their maiden and just haven't.  This horse actually crossed the line first in his first career start but it was considered a no contest.  That is a huge advantage as it seems this horse knows how to win while facing horses that don't.

Others to use: #5 Super Shoes best tries come on the dirt. He finished ahead of our top pick by a nose last race. #6 Just Call Me Homer in these kind of races I like to go with the more inexperienced horses with value as the other ones are proven they can't win.  This will only be the horse's 3rd start.

Plays- $20 win #9 $1 exbox 5,6,9


RACE 9

Top pick #4 Disco's Bridge - Not much to like in this race. A very difficult race to handicap. I like the early pace and the connections of the #4 as they are better then some others in this race. 

Others to use: #8 King Andres - Is the ML favorite and out of all the other horses that have a shot this one atleast has a decent jockey and good trainer. Plus he has hit the trifecta in 3 of 7 races. #9 Red Hood I kept looking at this horse not to much to like but does have some pace. Going from dirt back to turf a trainer switch and coming back to Tampa maybe the horse can find something.

Plays- $20 win #4 $1 exbox 4,8,9 $1 tri box 4,8,9/4,8,9/All

Good luck and Happy Holidays!