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A Malibu Stakes Rhyme

Horse Racing Radar
Rich Bieglmeier
Saturday, December 26, 2020

A Malibu Stakes Rhyme

Hoping to hit the super on the dime

‘Tis the day after Christmas and all through the land, horesplayers have big bills, so heavy in hand. We'll try our best, at a track out west. Hopefully, we can come through, with a winning wager or two. Santa Anita's 10th is the Malibu, handicapping hat on to see what we can do.

Oddsmakers say NASHVILLE (PP: 3 ML 6/5) is the one to beat, a Keeneland track record in his last shows he has some very fast feet. Six furlongs in one oh seven and four, do it again, it will be another score. He hasn't run since the seventh of November, but bullet works say he's still a top contender.

CHARLATAN (PP: 4 ML 9/5) will give or make them chase in what's sure to be an early fast pace. The backside of a horse he's yet to see, getting to the tape first in races one, two and three.  Santa Anita is a favorite of Bob Baffert's horse, he's two for two over this course.

The Malibu Stakes appears to be down to this pair, but INDEPENDENCE HALL (PP: 6 ML 4-1) could give them a scare. He's been training quick as quick and should benefit from a strong, late kick. In his first six, he's won four, he'll need to run his best to add one more. We aren't sure he'll get the job done, maybe that will go to horse number one.

COLLUSION ILLUSION (PP: 1 ML 8-1) breaks from the rail, he'll need a fast pace to tell a winning tale. He's been off to a slow start in more than a few, that's something he can't afford to do. If he let's the others get way out ahead, his chances are just about dead. To break the favorite's heart, he'll need to be no worse than fourth from the start.

THOUSAND WORDS (PP: 2 ML 8-1) is the last that we feel has a chance, at Santa Anita he knows how to dance. In three, he's one twice, but from race to race he's a roll of the dice. Half the time he's come first, but too many times he's been the worst. If the pace is too fast, history says he won't last. This race is sure to be a flash, making it hard for him to cash.

We've listed them in the order they'll probably run, although it won't be surprising if CHARLATAN won. The exacta pay won't be much to do, if the chalk runs one, two. For horseplayers to make some dough, the straight super is probably the way to go. We'll line them up 3-4-6-1 and hope that's the way they run.