Shawn's back along with his insights as the guys put their
plays on the table at Aqueduct to start 2021. Who will be the first to wear the
Aqueduct Race 7: $40,000 Claiming
#4 Perceived Eric Cancel/Chad Brown- Looks to get a dream trip outside of the
two front runners the #1 First Line and the #3 Jerusalem Gates. The beyers of
the #4 horse are way better than any other horse in the field and have been
very consistent with beyers in the range of 77-83. I would use the #3 as the
next pick. The #3 is multi-dimensional and could sit off of the #1 as well and
maybe even get the #9 Colormepazzi to put pressure on the #1. Jose Lescano has
been on fire as of late hitting at 26% for the meet.
$20 Win #4
$1 Exacta 3,4/1,3,4
$1 Trifecta 3,4/3,4/All
#3- Jerusalem Gates after taking a three-month break is working well coming
into this race. He appears to be very versatile running on top or coming from
behind. He has a great jockey- trainer (Lezcano - Linda Rice) combination and
is 1 for 1 at this distanced.
#4 – Perceived is returning after being off for almost a
year. He likes the track and distanced and is working well.
#1 – First Line. The one hole is the place to be at this
track and distance- winning 29% of the time.
$10 to Win #3
$10 Exacta- #3 / 1, 4
$1 Pick 3- #1-3-4 / 1 / 4-9-10
This is a tough race because you have local horses, horses that haven't run in
a while and shippers that haven't run in a while. With that thought, I am
betting on #3 Shadow Caster. The track should be sloppy or muddy on Saturday
and he has won on an off -track around 2 turns at Finger Lakes. Last race at
AQU, he was 2 wide most of the race and 6 wide at the 1/8th pole and making no
progress run at 6 ½ furlongs, I think this horse needs more distance. This
time, I see him needing the last race. Good spot at good odds.
$20 to Win #3
$4 Exacta Box 1-3-9
I can't look past trainer Chad Brown winning at 43% the first time he enters a
horse in the claiming ranks. He doesn't run many at the lower levels, but he
has #4 Perceived here. It's also hard to look past the rail winning at 25%.
First Line gets that draw and should put it to good use on the drop in class.
$4 Pick 3: 1,4/1/1,8,10,12
Aqueduct Race 8: $100,000 Gravesend Stakes
#5 Stan the Man Eric Cancel J.P. Terranova- I think there is enough speed in
this race for it to fit the style of the #5 horse who should be able to get a
nice trip on the outside of a 5-horse field. Was in the exact same situation 4
months ago with a 5-horse field and against the #4 My Boy Tate and won. In that
race was pp #2 and won by a length and half. I like both of the mentioned
horses above the other logical choice the #1 Happy Farm. Should be the speed of
the race and normally I would land here with the pick, but a 10-month layoff is
$20 Win #5
$10 Exacta Box 1,5
#1- Happy Farm will break on top and lead all the way. He very competitive
having been in the money in all his races except for one since November 2018.
He has the best win and in the money percent of any of the horses in this race.
# 3- Pete's Play Call has the highest Beyer number in the
race and needs only to repeat his last race to win.
# 5- Stan the Man is a good closer and can pick them up at
$4 Exacta- #1 / 3,5
$2 Exacta Box- #1, 3, 5
#4 My Boy Tate is my choice because he's 4 for 4 on wet tracks, has a good
record at AQU and has run well at this level of listed or restricted races.
He's faced a Grade 1 winner – True Timber and seen the back end of a very good
NY Bred – Funny Guy. He's thrown is a few awful races in too but overall runs
ITM 14 of 19 times. The works appear good and this is the type of field he can
beat at this distance.
$20 to Win #4
Small field, not a lot of speed. That means #1 Happy Farm should be able to get
to the front and dictate the pace from start to finish. If you are looking for
a single, Happy Farm could be it.
$10 to Win #1
$5 Exacta 1/3,4
Aqueduct Race 9: $16,000 Claiming
#2 I See the StarsEric Cancel /Wayne Potts- This is a WIDE open race that was
very difficult to handicap. I went one of the wildcards of the race. The #2 has
never raced on dirt and ships in from Woodbine. Usually, Woodbine shippers do
well anywhere. I also like the horse will probably close or sit off the pace.
There seems to be a lot of pace to the race. If my picks are right Eric Cancel
is going to have a big day. #10 Unbridled John is one of the speedy horses in
this race if he can get a jump and clear the other speed could be dangerous.
Does well at the track and distance. #12 Doubly Blessed another horse that has
never ran dirt and likes to close. Has good connections in Franco and Maker
also is dropping in class.
$16 Win #2
$1 Exacta Box 2,10,12
- Unbridled John is in top form winning his last race easily.
- Tiergan is down in class and has a couple of nice works in this wide open
- Beachside is my longshot having been in the money 41% of the time out of 17
$10 to Win #10
$5 Exacta 10 / 4-9
$1 Exacta box 4-9-10
$0.50 Trifecta 4-9-10 / 4-9-10 / 1-2-4-5-8-9-10-11
#2 Unbridled John is the speed in the race and won a maiden claimer last out.
The job of "nursing" this horse on the lead is important. There is speed on the
outside, so he will have to maintain the opening 2 factions of the race. I
think he can repeat. BUT, if Royal Suspect draws in from also eligible list, he
would be my choice. Based on track condition, I really don't know what will
$20 to WIN #2
$1 Exacta Box 2,3,7,14
You need to adjust the handicapping hat tightly for this race. It's one where
you almost feel like hitting the all button, but I can't do that. #8 Bronxville
made his fist start since March on December 10th. He ran some of his
fastest fractions in the third-place fade. He gave up the lead in the lane. I
expect him to be stronger in race number two off the bench and possible keep
the lead all the way around this time. If not, #11 Doubly Blessed or #9
Beachside could chase him down.
$10 Win #8
$1 Exacta Box 2,8,9,11
$0.50 Trifecta 1,4,2,8,9,11/2,8,9,11/2,8,9,11