Ren Carothers joins the show and drops some serious 411 on:
- Tampa Bay Downs Race 8 – $175,000 TAMPA BAY STAKES
- Tampa Bay Downs Race 9 - $150,000 SUNCOAST STAKES
- Tampa Bay Downs Race 10 - $175,000 ENDEAVOUR STAKES
- Tampa Bay Downs Race 11 - $250,000 SAM F DAVIS STAKES
If you are interested in Tampa winners and not "buying garbage cans" as Tom put it, she's a must follow on Twitter @RenCarothers.
Along with big races, Ren, Shawn, Tom and Rich make their picks for the Big Game in Tampa on Sunday. Rich (and Shawn) has a bet he can't lose, literally.
This show is "wired" - Give it a listen and Ren will leave you handicapping-smarter than you came.
Tampa Bay Downs Race 8 – $175,000
TAMPA BAY STAKES – GRADE III
#3 Get Smokin - Might be the speed of the race definitely going to go to the
front and see what happens. Has faced some really tough competition. Two races
back beat Decorated Invader. Has faced and lost to Domestic Spending 3 times.
That's a horse that has won 4 of 5 lifetime races and won the Hollywood Derby
this year. Having a good post position will help a lot here. It looks like the
horse runs a lot better from an inside pp compared to an outside pp. Junior
Alvarado has been riding really well of late.
#12 Greyes Creek -
Has won 3 races in a row and 4 of 5 lifetime races on turf however this is a
huge step up in competition. The pp will be a huge disadvantage here but could
create value. The horse could still get a good trip as there is enough speed in
this race and the horse has enough tactical speed it could get over and sit mid
pack before turn. Helps to have Chad Brown and John Velazquez.
#2 Admission Office
- 2nd start after a half year layoff. Could get a nice setup with some speed in
this race and will come flying late. Has been facing some really tough
competition. Julian Leparoux has been really struggling but is one of the best
turf riders out there.
$20 win #3
$1 Exacta Box 2,3,12
#3 Get Smokin – great name for a speed horse and boy can he move. There is one
other speed horse in the race in #6 Proven Strategies but not at the Grade 3
level at this distance. Get Smokin has faced some very good turf horses last
year but only 1 win at 1 mile on a yield course. Coming from a layoff with
works of :59.3 and 56.3. Chance of rain in the Tampa area on Saturday so we
#8 Eons – comes into
this race off a good race at Tampa and beaten by a stable mate. Maybe return to
his 3-year-old form.
#12 Greyes Creek –
won 3 in a row and last was easy. Comes on late but there are other closers in
the race and post 12 doesn't help. Traffic issues?
$20 to Win #3
$1 Exacta Box 3,4,8,12
Mid-race closers with a strong kick get it done at the distance and surface.
Number 12, Greyes Creek fits that to a Tampa T. His late pace number are second
to none for any in this crew.
$1 Exacta Box 1,7,10,12
$ Trifecta 10,12/1,7,10,12/1,4,7,10,12
Tampa Bay Downs Race 9 - $150,000 SUNCOAST STAKES
#2 Feeling Mischief- Beat ML favorite 2 starts ago. Granted that was a 6
furlong race not a 1 mile 40 yard race like this one. Gets a good pp and should
be to sit off the speed and be there at the end. Has been finishing all of her
races really good doesn't look like distance will be a problem.
#7 Gulf Coast - Has done nothing wrong in her 3 starts to
not like her. Has been getting 4 wide trips and still right there at the end
winning 2 of them. With a better trip maybe turns the table and beats the #2
#4 Curlin's Catch- Could be the speed of the race and will
see how far she can go. Loved the dirt last race when she went wire to wire at
Gulfstream. Gets one of the leading jockeys Antonio Gallardo up and that always
$20 win #2
$1 Exacta Box 2,4,7
Commentary: A Note, this is a Kentucky Oaks points race, and
the horses will be running without Lasix.
#1 Roll Up Mo Money – 2 wins from 3 races and the lone out
of money was in a Grade 1 race. Has speed but could sit off the pace. I am not
a big rail horse player, but Camacho should be able to get this horse in
position around the track to win. Should go off, again, at good odds.
#7 Gulf Coast as performed well in 3 races and has a run
over the Tampa surface. Will be behind the pace with cover.
#8 Be Sneaky local works with trainer based at Tampa. Pick
up a piece in this race.
$20 to Win #1
$1 Exacta Box 1,7,8,10
#7 Gulf Coast's fractions were impressive in her first route race (1 mile or
more). She should be better in her second go at a route. Number 8 Be Sneaky
could be a good value for trainer Arnaud Delacour who wins at 36% in first
routes and four of his last eight with jockey Hector Diaz, Jr.
$1 Trifecta 2,7,8/2,5,7,8/2,5,7,8,9
Tampa Bay Downs Race 10 - $175,000 ENDEAVOUR STAKES –
#6 New York Girl - Made US debut a winning one last start at Gulfstream. Gets Junior
Alvarado back up. Should be close to the pace as the #3 looks like the lone
speed. 2nd start after 3 and half month break.
#2 Logic N Reason - Should be the only other horse besides
the #3 that might go for the lead. Has won 2 of her last 3 races and 2 of 3 at
#5 Counterparty Risk- Might be the best horse in the race
but the pace of the race could really hurt her chances. Will come flying late
either way and should get a share.
$20 win #6
$1 Exacta 2,6/2,5,6
#6 New York Girl won like a good horse should in first race in the states. Face
Grade 1 races in Ireland facing some of the best in Europe. She is a Grade 3
winner. She will be along in time for the win.
#3 No Mercy Percy – why not! I see the battle for second
with a few horses.
If the race is taken off the turf, then my choice is #4 Eres
Tu. Won her last 3 races.
$20 to Win #6
$1 Exacta Box 2,6
It should be a good betting race and I am betting on #2 Logic N Reason, #5 Counterparty
Risk and #6 New York Girl. Logic and Reason showed well in her last and first
at TB, hoping she's a horse for the course.
$2 Exacta Box 2,5,6
Tampa Bay Race 11 - $250,000 SAM F DAVIS STAKES
#5 Smiley Sobotka- In 3 races hasn't lost by more than ¾ lengths. Looks ready
to go after a 2 month break. Working out well last workout on Jan 30th ran 4
furlongs in 46 and 4 which was 2nd out of 118 horses running that day. Should
be able to sit right off the pace as there seems to be a lot of speed in this
#7 Boca Boy- Has a lot of speed and has never gotten a
chance to race on a fast track. Has done well on a sloppy track and has a
second on only turf try. If he likes a fast track could be dangerous and the
speed of the speed.
#9 Candy Man Rocket - Will be tested for class here but
after the last race blowingthe competition away by 9 and ¼ lengths have to give
him a look.
$20 Win #5
$1 Exacta Box 5/7,9
Commentary: A Note, this is a Kentucky Derby points race, and
the horses will be running without Lasix.
#9 Candy Man Rocket a maiden winner last out by 9+ length.
Stalked the pace and blew past them to win in last. First race around 2 turns
but shouldn't be an issue based on breeding. It's a very open race.
#3 – Known Agenda – has raced wide in all his races but
still gets in the money finish. Pletcher trained should get a piece.
#7 – Boca Boy – in the money in all 4 races. Speed when
adding blinkers 2 starts back.
$20 to Win #9
$1 Exacta Box 1,3,7,8
It's another race with the opportunity to find one of those fat Tampa tickets.
Number 8 Nova Rags is another that took to the Tampa track in his first try.
Like Ren said in the show, horses can struggle in their Tampa debuts. I like
that he put one of his best efforts in the PPs at Tampa.
$1 Exacta Box 3,5,8,9
$ Trifecta 3,5,8,9/3,8/3,5,7,8,9
Good Luck at the Tampa races!