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Some Super Bowl Props and Game Predictions

Horse Racing Radar
Rich Bieglmeier
Sunday, February 7, 2021

What do the Super Bowl and Horse Racing have in common, aside from wagering? Nothing. So, why is a Super Bowl article on a horse racing site? It's Super Bowl Sunday and everything else takes a backseat for most, horse racing included.

According to Statista, $4.3 billion will be bet on Super Bowl wagers. From the coin-flip to who is going to say "I am going to Disney" to the game in between and the stats produced by the players on the field. For this Sunday, Super Bowl Sunday, we'll switch handicapping hats from the one labeled horses to the one marked NFL.

Let's look at some of the Prop bets to see which we believe offer value.

Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes to throw an interception.

Yes +140

No -170

The Play: Yes +140. Mahomes is well on his way to becoming a record breaking QB. One of the records he broke this year was the most interceptions dropped by the opposing team at 16. If the Tampa defense can hold on, Mahomes will throw at least one INT.

All-Star Chief's tight-end Travis Kelce to catch for more or less than 97.5 yards.

Over -118

Under -106

The Play: Under -106. In 19 games, the Tampa Bay defense did not allow a single TE to reach 97.5 yards, including Kelce. In the Chiefs' regular season 27-24 win versus the Bucs, Kelce had eight catches for 82 yards. In 17 games, the Kansas City TE topped 97.5 yards eight times.

Tampa Bay Running Back Leonard Fournette to score a touchdown +125

Bruiser Fournette has hit paydirt in five of his last six games and is Tom Brady's favorite target out of the backfield. He'll get the ball in goal-line situations if the Buccaneers run and is a threat to catch it close to the end-zone as well.

Oh, and the game itself? The Kansas City Chiefs are favored by three points despite Tampa Bay playing in their home stadium. It's the first time ever that a team will play the Super Bowl in their home stadium. Will it help? Probably not.

Kansas City is 8-0 on the road this year and Tampa Bay is 5-3 at home with one of the Ls against KC. My computer projects a Chiefs win by five points, 29-24, that 53 points and under the total of 56.

Time to switch hats back.