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Can Track History Lead Us to the Buena Vista Stakes Winner?

Horse Racing Radar
Rich Bieglmeier
Saturday, February 20, 2021

Big fields usually mean big ticket opportunity for horseplayers.  Throw in a lukewarm 3-1 favorite, surface and distance without any major running style or post position biases and its a bettors' delight.

Ten fillies and mares will race 1 mile on Santa Anita's turf course for the $200,000 Buena Vista Stakes Crown. CHARMAINE'S MIA (PP: 8 ML 3-1) is the morning line favorite for trainer Philip D'Amato.  The five-year-old mare won her last race producing her top, career speed figure. It was her first race at Santa Anita and first since October 24, 2020.

She looks to be in good form with two bullet workouts heading into the Buena Vista. However, and this is a big however, she's not had much luck in races following a win. In her previous four wins, she only finished in the money once in the following race. Although she's struggled in the race following a win her last effort and training at Santa Anita suggests CHARMAINE'S MIA has horse for the course potential.

We know for sure that MUCHO UNUSUAL (PP: 2 ML 7/2) is a horse for the Arcadia, California track. The daughter of MUCHO MACHO MAN and NOT UNUSUAL has tried racing at Santa Anita nine times with five wins, a second and three thirds. That's 100% in the money, baby. She's also bested the distance with four wins and three thirds in eight efforts. MUCHO UNUSUAL has won two straight for trainer Tim Yakteen and could be at her best in the classic third start following a layoff. Her last third race in a three-race cycle was the best of the bunch.

WARREN'S SHOWTIME (PP: 3 ML 5-1) is another lady that finds comfort in Santa Anita sun. She's tried her luck at Santa Anita seven times and barbelled second with four wins and three thirds. Turf has been the filly's preferred surface as she's taken home the top-prize five times in 11 races on grass with just one win in five dirt tries. Like MUCH UNUSUAL, she's making her third start off the bench and it was the best of the three in her last third start.

SEDAMAR (PP: 6 ML 8-1) likes to find the money at Santa Anita but not the winners' circle with one win and a trifecta of seconds and thirds. She missed by 3/4s of a length against MUCHO UNUSUAL In her last start. It was her first race since early October. She could flip the script in round two off the bench as she bested her rival three races back and got the better of WARREN'S SHOWTIME in the race before that. SEDAMAR might be at her best her as she ran her career best speed number in her last second race off the break.

GOING TO VEGAS (PP: 7 ML 6-1) is the last of the horses for the course. Trainer Richard Baltas' four-year-old has seven Santa Anita starts with three gold and three silver medals. She hasn't raced since the day after Christmas, but Baltas brings the filly back fresh and ready to run. GOING TO VEGAS was a neck away from winning both of her last two first starts out of the barn with similar rest, both at 1 mile on Santa Anita grass. It's a distance she loves with all of her three wins, three seconds and two thirds in nine races.

Based on their success at Santa Anita, these five ladies should be a handful in the Grade II, Buena Vista Stakes.

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