PODCAST: Special Guest Matt Carothers from TVG

Horse Racing Radar
Rich Bieglmeier
Rich Bieglmeier is a Staff writer for Horse Racing Radar
Friday, February 26, 2021
TVG Host Matt Carothers (@MattCTVG) is known for his price picks and he let's us in on which horses are worthy and priced right for the late Pick 4 Saturday afternoon at Gulfstream Park.

Between Tom and Matt, we've got plenty of long(er) odds horses you might consider for your tickets.

You'll learn a lot, just don't expect Matt to give you his pants, that's going too far (listen and you'll know).

Terry's Pick 4

Race #11:

#6 Zofelle loves the distance and track. She has a great jockey/trainer combination of Ortiz is in the saddle and Walsh Brendan is training. She won her last race the Marshua's River a Grade-3 affair.

#2 Got Stormy has plenty of class and is a Grade-1 winner. She has sparkling works for her 2021 bow and the best Beyer of 109.

#7 Feel Glorious is one for one at Gulfstream Park and is 12 for 18 on the turf.

Race #12:

#3 Vequist won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Grade-1 race. And has never ran worse than second in her career. She has been working well since the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies race for her return.

#5 Millefeuille was just barely caught in her last race a Grade-2 affair. She cuts back to a mile today which can only help.

#4 Curlin's Catch is going for a hat trip and can go on top or come from behind.

#8 Adios Tripppi – has plenty of speed and will be in the thick of things.

Race #13:

#7 Bacchanalia won easily last race out match well with this field. She has a great jockey, Ortiz in the irons.

#6 Kalifornia Queen is a Grade-2 winner and has very good works over turf and I take any horse trained by Chad Brown to be a serious contestant by and in addition Tyler Gaffallione is in the irons.

#3 Antoinette was 6 out of 7 in the money last year and has been working consistently for her return to the races.

#5– Heavenly Curlin has won 50% of her races and needed her last race and should respond well in her second race since her layoff.

Race #14:

#8 Greatest Honour will need some help pace help to run his race for his stretch run.He looks like something special and will be hard to deny.

#2 Prime Factor should do better after her race last time. Looks like she will get a stalking trip which will suit her.

#1 Drain the Clock has only lost one race out five that he has entered. He has an excuse as he lost the rider when an iron broke. The only concern is can he go the distance.

#7 Tarantino has won 50% of her races and has never finished worse than second. He should be right there at the end.

#4 Fire At Will is going for his 4th win in a row the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Grade-1 race.

#11 – 2-6
#12 – 3-4-5
#13 – 3-6-7
#14 – 1-2-4-7-9

If I have to choose a single it would be #3 Vequist in the 12th Race

Shawn's Pick 4

$1 PICK 4 TICKET (RACES 11-14) 2, 4, 5, 8/ 3, 4/ 3, 5, 7, 10/ 1, 4, 8 COST $96

RACE #11

#2 Got Stormy- The horse with the most class and most wins in the field. Gets a great post position and has been working out great since last race at the Breeder's cup in November. 10 wins out of 26 career races. Winning at 38 % lifetime I like her chances here.

#5 Bienville Street- Definitely stepping up in class but has been running really good lately and is in great form. Should provide a decent price as her last 2 races which she won she was 8 to 1 and 11 to 1.

#8 Jakarta- Should be the speed of the race. She typically sprints but did run a mile one time and won that race. That was on dirt not turf but it proved she can get the distance.  The pace of the race should favor her as I don't see many horses besides her going for the lead. She likes Gulfstream's turf winning 2 of her 3 races on it.

RACE #12

#3 Vequist – She is the classy horse and best horse in this field with the best jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. She has raced in 3 consecutive grade 1 races winning 2 and got 2nd in the other. She will actually face easier here as this is a grade 2 race. Has been off for over 3 months but has been working out really well.  She will use her speed to get a stalking trip and then track the leader from there. Would be my single in the late pick 4 sequence if you wanted to cut the cost of the ticket in half.

#4 Curlin's Catch – She has really liked the surface switch from synthetic to dirt going 2 for 2 on dirt. Only 1 bad race in her 4 race career finishing 5th at Woodbine in her second start.  That one she just had a wide trip, and nothing left at the end. She can win on the lead or closing from mid pack.

# 5 Millefeuille – Has been right there in all of her 3 races. She's had 1 win and finished 2nd in two others where she lost by ¾ of a length in both. Has some speed so should be sitting just off the speed.

RACE #13

#7 Bacchanalia- I think this horse might get the run of the race sitting behind the pace. I think there are only about 2 horses that will try for the lead in the race that would be #3 Antoinette and the #2 Bella Laura.   You also get the best jockey in the world right now in Irad Ortiz Jr.  This horse has been really sharp winning 3 out of her last 5 races and finishing 2nd by a half a length in one of those races. She had a 6th in there but you can throw that out since that was her first race in over 6 months.

#10 Sister Hanan - Has been pretty sharp lately and working out really well. She just had a bullet work a week ago where she was best out of 51 horses on that day. I'm hoping she can be a little closer to the pace than normal as I don't think there will be a ton of pace to run into. Two starts ago finished in a dead heat with Bienville Street for the win. That horse then went on to win her next start which was a 75k stakes race.

#3 Antoinette- Her past chance here is to go get the lead and hope she finds herself alone. I think this is the horse that the pace of this race will play favorably to. She is one I would use in all exotics as she is always around at the end. She has finished in the trifecta 8 of 10 lifetime races.

RACE #14

#1 Drain the Clock- Horse for the course as he is 3 for 3 at Gulfstream and has won all the races there by at least 6 lengths. Will be the speed of the race and getting the rail only helps his chances getting the lead. I like having Edgar Zayas on a horse with speed like this and so does the horse as the combo is 3 for 3.

#4 Fire At Will- Has won 3 straight races at 3 different tracks. Has won on turf and a sloppy race track now will try on what should be a fast dirt track Saturday. This will be the first time he gets a jockey to ride him for a 2nd time as Kendrick Carmouche will be back up. Carmouche won on him 2 starts ago where Fire At Will went wire to wire over the Belmont turf course. I would expect him to sit right off the speed possibly come out of the gate 2nd behind top pick #1 Drain the Clock.

#8 Greatest Honour – The deserving morning line favorite that has won his last 2 races which were at this track and distance. Beat most of these horses in his last race in the G3 Holy Bull however my top 2 choices were not in that race. Gets off to slow starts and closes from the back I think that style will have a hard time working in this race.

Tom's Pick 4

Race #10 - #11 First Premio – yes, he has been away from the races since July 2020 but there is one major change, he is a gelding now. Maybe before, Team Valor thought there was some stud value? His workouts are steady and, on both turf and dirt. This is a big drop-in class from the top end allowance races and the grade/listed stakes races. At this distance, he is 5 Wins from 9 starts. He will become late in the race.

#10 Angelus Warrior - ran an ok last out against similar. The prior races, he was facing stakes company and the likes of Colonel Liam. There is a jockey change on this horse and the last time Junior Alvarado rode this horse. Now his is riding my top choice.

#6 Almashriq – another layoff horse who won in 2020 after a layoff at 15 to 1. The 5-year-old has raced only 8 times and I think he can be in the money.

$20 to WIN 11

Race #11 - #2 Got Stormy – I wonder after her last race if she would return. She is now 6 years old and her wins last season were at the grade 3 level in sprints. The is a work on February 6th at Palm Meadows of :57,35 breezing on the turf. I think she's still interested. The mile turf race is bee her game with 8 wins from 17 starts. In her last 10 races, she has run against females 5 times and faced males 5 times. I think the grade 3 level she should handle just fine. Favorite?

#4 Ricetta – has raced only 4 times and once in this country. She placed in a group 3 race at York and then shipped her for the now grade 3 Saratoga Oaks. Layoff with nice works for her return.

#6 Zofelle – won a grade 3 races last time out at 1 mile. This appears to be her racing level and should finish on the board.

$1 Exacta Box 2-4-6

Race #12 - #4 Curlin's Catch – her last 2 races, both wins one in a listed stakes race at Tampa. Her speed ratings have been nothing special but has been used hard in the 2 wins. She goes back to a 1 turn mile race and has won at this distance.

#3 Verquist – she won the Breeders Cup race, she been in the money in all of her races. My concern is that does she want 2 turn races?

#8 Adios Tripppi – she appears to be the only speed in the race. I think she will hang on for a piece.

$20 to WIN #4

Race#13 - #6 Kalifornia Queen – Chad Brown trained German horse ridden by Tyler Gaffallione

In her last 2 races in Europe, she ran at PairsLongChamp in a group 1 and group 3 races and faced some very good horses. She is a group 2 winner in German. I like her works coming into this race and Chad Brown won't place this horse in this race if she wasn't ready.

#9 – War Like Goddess – has won her first 2 races and now steps up to face better company, well maybe, because her allowance win at Churchill, was against a good field. This is one to watch the wagering on.

#7 – Bacchanalia – first race back from layoff, she won. Steps up in class. Likes the track 3 starts and 2 wins and 1 place. Should be around for a piece.

$1 Exacta Box 6-7-9

(No win bet because I never get a price on a Chad Brown horse)

Race#14 – #6 King's Ovation – had trouble in last race and still finished second. With room, I think he would have won. Distance and 2 turns shouldn't be an issue with this breeding. Best work on February 29th :59.62 breezing and best work out of 42 horses going the workout distance.

#10 Papetu – he faces some of the same from the Holy Bull and his race was better than it looks on paper. They have put this horse up against good company and think he's good enough for a placing.

#7 Tarantino – has won or placed in his 4 races. His last race, he ran a very good second at 26-1. Why at these odds? Because the other 3 races were on the turf. This son of Poineerof the Nile appears to like both surfaces and I can't find a reason to leave him off the ticket.

$20 to WIN on #6

Pick4 – Cost $24

#11 – 2
#12 – 3-4-5-8
#13 – 3-4-6-7-9
#14 – 6-7-10

Rich's Pick 4

Race 11: 4,6,8
Race 12: 3,5
Race 13: 2,6,7,9,10
Race 14: 1,2,8

I'd love to put a ton of commentary behind my picks, but it's been a super long couple of days. Take a listen to the podcast and you'll know.