After the Super Bowl, one of the players from the winning
team looks into the camera and says, "I am going to Disney." If horses could
talk, Mr. Ed notwithstanding, the winner of the Fountain of Youth Stakes race
this Saturday would announce, "I am headed to Churchill."
It's a Kentucky Derby points race and the first to the wire
gets 50. Since moving to the new qualifying system in 2013, all horses to
accumulate half-a-hundred points earned a Derby berth; injuries and other
unexpected events aside.
The Fountain of Youth caps a 14-race card that includes nine
stakes races with prize pools of at least $100,000. You know what that means
from a horseplayer's perspective? Super-sized money pools and the potential for
major paydays.
Players need to be extra prepared, armed with as much info
as possible to up their chances during big days like the Fountain of Youth. That's
exactly what our friends at Guaranteed Tip Sheet do for their customers with
their 10-page, Fountain of Youth Wagering Guide.
It covers all of the nine stakes races and they were kind enough to share the first stakes race of the day, race
three, the Grade III, Herecomesthebride Stakes portion of the wagering guide
with Horse Racing Radar.
It starts with the distance, surface and post position
biases for Gulfstream races at 1 1/16 Miles on turf:
Distance/Surface Bias:
Slightly favors horse that come from off the pace with 41 of 72 races. On
average, the winning horse is fourth through the first 6 furlongs and makes its
move from there.
Post Position Bias: The one
post has a slight edge but most of the gates play fair.
Then they move on to the top contenders, value plays,
longshots and some commentary:
Top Contenders:
#6 – Tobys Heart is undefeated in
two starts where she made huge, late moves. Coming from mid-pack with a late
kick is the preferred running style. She hasn't raced since mid-August and is
trying a route for the first time are the two big question marks.
#3 – Con Lima will be out front
from the jump. She finished second by a nose in her last as the favorite.
However, the final mile time was fast for this crew. If she can run at her
typical pace, it could be hard for the others to catch and pass her.
#1 – Spanish Loveaffair ran the
top, last race speed figure in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf but
finished sixth. She's run twice at Gulfstream for trainer Mark Casse, winning
both.
Value Plays and Long Shots:
#2 – Lijana is lightly raced with
only two on her resume. She ran some much-improved fractions in her last, which
was her first since November. Due to her limited schedule, we don't know her
potential and might show more in race two off the bench.
#4 – I Get It is an all or nothing
horse with four wins and nothing else in seven races. A pair of the victories
came in a handful of races at Gulfstream Park. She finished fourth behind some
of these in her only stakes race.
#7 – Mail Order broker her maiden
in her last race, her second career start and first on grass. She was on the
lead and hung on by a nose. The extra distance could hurt her chances.
Of course, it's horse racing. It would be nice if everything
goes as planned, but then every winner would be 1/9. As such, horseplayer need
to adjust on the fly. If speed is winning, then move speed horses up the list
and closers down the ranks. Of course, if speed can't hold up with stalkers and
closers getting to the winners' circle, re-rank accordingly.
That's why the Wagering Guide includes the running style of each
horse and the expected early pace:
Pace based on most recent races:
Early Speed: Lijana, Con
Lima, Joy of Painting, Mail Order
Stalkers: Spanish Loveaffair
Closers: I Get It, Tobys
Heart, Designer Ready
Early Race Outlook: CON LIMA is a true frontrunner and should
step to the front. She'll be challenged by MAIL ORDER. Next in line should be
LIJANA and JOY OF PAINTING who are more co-pilots than pilots. CON LIMA is the
one with the best chance to go wire to wire.
And then they wrap it up with The Play, Picks and Suggested
Wagers.
The Play:
TOBYS HEART is undefeated in to starts and stretching out for the first time.
Routes might be a better fir for her closing style. CON LIMA is speed and has
not finished worse then second in seven races. SPANISH LOVEAFFAIR is two for
two at Gulfstream and has the top, last race speed figure. LIJANA ran a sneaky
good race last out and should be better in round two off the bench.
Picks
#6 – Tobys Heart 7/2
#3 – Con Lima 3-1
#1 – Spanish Loveaffair 2-1
#2 – Lijana 8-1
#4 – I Get It 12-1
#7 – Mail Order 12-1
Exacta 1,2,3,6
Box
Trifecta 1,3,6/1,2,3,6/1,2,3,4,6
We suggest using the Wager Guide to compliment your
handicapping. Perhaps to confirm your analysis and to give you something, an
angle or insight you didn't think about. Or, you can play them straight up.
Either way, you'll be equipped with more knowledge and better prepared to make
the most of the super-sized money pools and move the odds into your favor.
Along with the Herecomesthebride Stakes 4-1-1, Guaranteed Tip
Sheet offers Horse Racing Radar readers exclusive savings with a one-of-a-kind
discount for their 10-page Fountain of Youth Wagering Guide.
In order to download the complete 10-page guide, you'll need a ONE MONTH PRO package which includes ALL TRACKS, ALL RACES, ALL BONUS COMMENTARY and ALL WAGERING GUIDES for one month at Guaranteed Tip Sheet. This package is typically $60. But if you use special promo code "ONEMONTH" at checkout, it will knock 50% off that price and make it only $30! Today only and only applies to a ONE MONTH PRO purchase. If you would like to see what a complete guide looks like, you can download our RISEN STAR guide.
To take advantage of this offer, head over to Guaranteed Tip Sheet and either signup for a new account or login if you already have an account. Once logged in, click on TIP SHEETS at the top of the page. Then look under BUY IN BULK (lower right side of screen) and choose one month PRO from the dropdown. You will then see this screen:
Click on PURCHASE PRO - $60. Next, this screen will pop up:
Make sure you choose the second option (New Checkout Process). Lastly, you will see this page:
Put your promo code in -- "ONEMONTH" and it will apply a 50% discount. Then you're all set!
Best of luck today!