From the freezing cold and snow to rain, rain, rain, it sure
feels like the city of Hot Springs, Arkansas is not living up to its resort
like name, weather-wise. Once in a century, wintery weather had an impact on
horseracing in Hot Springs' Oaklawn Park, cancelled for two weeks. Once again,
Mother Nature is affecting what happens on the track. A bunch of rain has tuned
the horseracing course into a sloppy, muddy mess. I bet today's handicapping contest players wish today was a LIVE CONTEST so they could change their picks.
However, all the wet didn't stop ESSENTIAL QUALITY's romp on
his way to the Kentucky Derby in Saturday's Southwest Stakes. It's a delayed
win for one of the Derby favorites as the race was a victim of the cold
Today, Oaklawn hosts three more delayed stakes races, making
for a better Sunday card than usual. Ah, but once again weather has a starring
role along with the horses, more rain.
Let's take a look at the three stakes races and see which
horses have the best wet track records.
Race 6 - $150,000 DIXIE BELLE STAKES, 6 Furlongs
GOING' GOOD (PP: 1 ML 3-1) has raced twice in her career,
both on turf. From experience, horses that run well on a wet dirt track can
hint at success on turf. The off-track record is one of the things I consider when
trainers move their horses to grass for the first time. I am not certain that
it works the other way around.
MARIAH'S PRINCESS (PP: 7 ML 7/2) has one win in her record
in three starts and it happened on a good Fair Grounds track. She ran the same
race she normally does, stalked the leaders and tried to move on by after the
half. That track surface was a lot less wet than what's she's going to be on in
the Dixie Belle; so, it's unlikely that the score was indicative of her liking
BIG TIME (PP: 4 ML 8-1) has two races at 6 furlongs and both
of them were on a off track, one listed as muddy and the other as sloppy. The
definitional difference didn't matter, she won both.
Morning-line favorite ABROGATE (PP: 5 ML 5/2) won her last,
at Oaklawn, at the distance and the track was muddy. She's seen this before and
will likely be on/near the lead and won't have to deal with mud to the eyes and
Race 8 - $150,000 DOWNTHEDUSTYROAD BREEDERS' STAKES – 6
SAVEDBYANAGEL (PP: 1 ML 12-1) broke her maiden with the best
run of her life on a sloppy Oaklawn track and ran one of her worst races on a
sloppy Oaklawn track.
TIGER BAIT (PP: 5 ML 20-1) is just like SAVEDBYANAGEL, ran
her best race and her worst in two trips around a wet Oaklawn course.
TIDDLY (PP: 7 ML 10-1) makes it three with the same all or
worst or first wet track record.
DUTCH TREAT (PP: 9 ML 12-1) has most experience of these
running wet with seven races. She took the trophy twice with a pair of seconds.
She's been mostly out of form in her last 10 starts, except for her last race
and a wire to wire win at Oaklawn on a good track.
THE MARY ROSE (PP: 10 ML 9/2) has two wins in eight career
starts. They both came on... off tracks, including her last, which was 6 furlongs
at Oaklawn. The four-year-old is undefeated on the wet stuff and appears to be
MATAPAN (PP: 11 ML 4-1) is the fourth to be included in the
all or nothing off track club, but it's been predominantly bad with just one
win and nothing else in three.
Race 9 - $250,000 BAYAKOA STAKES – Grade III – 1 1/16 Miles
If there is a value horse for a wetted up track, it's
ANOTHER BROAD (PP: 2 ML 6-1). She's never been out of the first three in six
races, four wins, a second and third. She has zero Ws in 17 races on a fast track.
If you are looking for somebody to upset the heavy favorite MONOMOY GIRL, maybe
the surface is right (maybe not, more on that below).
FINITE (PP: 3 ML 9/5) has one trip in conditions like today
and one win. He fractions were a little dull. So, maybe it was more a
reflection of the competition than a liking for the surface.
ISTAN COUNCIL (PP: 4 ML 6-1) has also made a half-dozen runs
on an off track, winning two with a third. Her numbers aren't much different
based on conditions. As such, she appears to be unaffected by the weather and
just runs her race, which probably is not good enough against these.
OUR SUPER FREAK (PP: 5 ML 6-1) has hit the board in all four
of her wet outings, with a win, place and two shows. She raced on nothing but
fast tracks in her last 10. It's tough to say if she'll take a liking to it
again, especially if she's not in the front.
MONOMOY GIRL (PP: 6 ML 1-1) just wins, it doesn't matter if
its hot, cold, wet or dry, she wins. The six-year-old mare has run 15 times
with 13 wins and two seconds, two of the 13 were in her two off track races. It
just proves the best horses can handle it all.
Get today's full picks for all tracks and races at Guaranteed Tip Sheet.