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Sunday Muddy Sunday

Horse Racing Radar
Rich Bieglmeier
Sunday, February 28, 2021

From the freezing cold and snow to rain, rain, rain, it sure feels like the city of Hot Springs, Arkansas is not living up to its resort like name, weather-wise. Once in a century, wintery weather had an impact on horseracing in Hot Springs' Oaklawn Park, cancelled for two weeks. Once again, Mother Nature is affecting what happens on the track. A bunch of rain has tuned the horseracing course into a sloppy, muddy mess. I bet today's handicapping contest players wish today was a LIVE CONTEST so they could change their picks. 

However, all the wet didn't stop ESSENTIAL QUALITY's romp on his way to the Kentucky Derby in Saturday's Southwest Stakes. It's a delayed win for one of the Derby favorites as the race was a victim of the cold cancellations.

Today, Oaklawn hosts three more delayed stakes races, making for a better Sunday card than usual. Ah, but once again weather has a starring role along with the horses, more rain.

Let's take a look at the three stakes races and see which horses have the best wet track records.

Race 6 - $150,000 DIXIE BELLE STAKES, 6 Furlongs

GOING' GOOD (PP: 1 ML 3-1) has raced twice in her career, both on turf. From experience, horses that run well on a wet dirt track can hint at success on turf. The off-track record is one of the things I consider when trainers move their horses to grass for the first time. I am not certain that it works the other way around.

MARIAH'S PRINCESS (PP: 7 ML 7/2) has one win in her record in three starts and it happened on a good Fair Grounds track. She ran the same race she normally does, stalked the leaders and tried to move on by after the half. That track surface was a lot less wet than what's she's going to be on in the Dixie Belle; so, it's unlikely that the score was indicative of her liking for slop.

BIG TIME (PP: 4 ML 8-1) has two races at 6 furlongs and both of them were on a off track, one listed as muddy and the other as sloppy. The definitional difference didn't matter, she won both.

Morning-line favorite ABROGATE (PP: 5 ML 5/2) won her last, at Oaklawn, at the distance and the track was muddy. She's seen this before and will likely be on/near the lead and won't have to deal with mud to the eyes and face.

Race 8 - $150,000 DOWNTHEDUSTYROAD BREEDERS' STAKES – 6 Furlongs

SAVEDBYANAGEL (PP: 1 ML 12-1) broke her maiden with the best run of her life on a sloppy Oaklawn track and ran one of her worst races on a sloppy Oaklawn track.

TIGER BAIT (PP: 5 ML 20-1) is just like SAVEDBYANAGEL, ran her best race and her worst in two trips around a wet Oaklawn course.

TIDDLY (PP: 7 ML 10-1) makes it three with the same all or worst or first wet track record.

DUTCH TREAT (PP: 9 ML 12-1) has most experience of these running wet with seven races. She took the trophy twice with a pair of seconds. She's been mostly out of form in her last 10 starts, except for her last race and a wire to wire win at Oaklawn on a good track.

THE MARY ROSE (PP: 10 ML 9/2) has two wins in eight career starts. They both came on... off tracks, including her last, which was 6 furlongs at Oaklawn. The four-year-old is undefeated on the wet stuff and appears to be a fan.

MATAPAN (PP: 11 ML 4-1) is the fourth to be included in the all or nothing off track club, but it's been predominantly bad with just one win and nothing else in three.

Race 9 - $250,000 BAYAKOA STAKES – Grade III – 1 1/16 Miles

If there is a value horse for a wetted up track, it's ANOTHER BROAD (PP: 2 ML 6-1). She's never been out of the first three in six races, four wins, a second and third. She has zero Ws in 17 races on a fast track. If you are looking for somebody to upset the heavy favorite MONOMOY GIRL, maybe the surface is right (maybe not, more on that below).

FINITE (PP: 3 ML 9/5) has one trip in conditions like today and one win. He fractions were a little dull. So, maybe it was more a reflection of the competition than a liking for the surface.

ISTAN COUNCIL (PP: 4 ML 6-1) has also made a half-dozen runs on an off track, winning two with a third. Her numbers aren't much different based on conditions. As such, she appears to be unaffected by the weather and just runs her race, which probably is not good enough against these.

OUR SUPER FREAK (PP: 5 ML 6-1) has hit the board in all four of her wet outings, with a win, place and two shows. She raced on nothing but fast tracks in her last 10. It's tough to say if she'll take a liking to it again, especially if she's not in the front.

MONOMOY GIRL (PP: 6 ML 1-1) just wins, it doesn't matter if its hot, cold, wet or dry, she wins. The six-year-old mare has run 15 times with 13 wins and two seconds, two of the 13 were in her two off track races. It just proves the best horses can handle it all.

 

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