Terry's Analysis and Pick 4
#7 Exaulted – Mike Smith returns to
ride after winning easily last race out. Exaulted is very competitive and even
though he is going up in class I think he will surprise in this race.
Ride has won three out of his four last races. In the one he did not win he had
a very rough trip and lost all chance.
#9 Tigre Di Slugo has been in the money five
out of six times in his career and has been working consistently for his return
from a short rest.
#1 Smooth Like Strait races against older for
the first time after winning 6 of 11 turf starts
against his age group including five stakes. He likes the track and the
distance and has won 50% of his career starts.
#3 Social Paranoia is three for three at today's
distance. He ran out of gas last time out going a mile & sixteen and is
back in the distance today that he relishes.
#9 Ride a Comet is going for a 5th
win in a row. He has finished 100% of the time in the money on the turf winning
5 of those starts.
Flavius is trained by Chad Brown. The past five
years, excluding Breeders' Cup races, Brown is 11-for-33 in California G1s on
the turf. Based on speed figures, FLAVIUS is among the fastest in the
#2 Maxfield has 5 wins from 5 career
starts, winning on three different tracks. He has won a G1 and two G3 races and
has an average of more money won than anyone entered in the race.
#6 Idol is 1 for 1 at today's distance He
gets Rosario in the irons and will be closing late. After having traffic
trouble in his last race the added distance today will only benefit him.
#1 Independence Hall has won four races out eight
races that he has entered. He bobbled in his last race and still ran a good 3rd.
He can use his speed while saving ground to run well in this race.
#4 Mr. Impossible stumbled and was bumped in his
last race and still ran a decent 3rd against tough competition. He is a sibling to graded
stakes winner Harvest Moon and should do well in this wide-open affair.
#10 Following Sea is trained by Bob Baffert
and ridden by Velazquez a winning combination. He has consistence and very fast
workouts for the launch of his career.
#11 Defunded was fractious in the gate, not
quick from the rail, shuffled slightly on the turn. He has outworked stakes
winners Concert Tour and Kalypso in morning works. This winter he outworked
graded stakes runner-up Dessman in a five-furlong gate work Feb. 17. This is
his first race since being guided.
#3 Patron d'Oro is trained by Brian
has won with two of his last three first time starters at this meet.
He has been working consistently toward his first race.
#8 – 7-6-9
#9 – 1-3-6-9
#10 – 2
#11 – 3-4-6-8-9-10-11-12
If I have to choose a single it would be #2 Maxfield
in the 10th Race
Pick 4 and race commentary
$1 PICK 4 TICKET (RACES 8-11) 1, 6, 7, 9/ 1,
9/,2, 7 / 3, 4, 5, 6 , 11, 12 COST $96
#6 Brickyard Ride- Will be the speed of the
race. The question is can he go an extra furlong?
Loves racing at Santa Anita winning 4 of his 5
races there. The one he lost he had bumped
another horse coming out of the gate and that
hurt his chances from the beginning as he went
too fast to get the lead and ended up
finishing 3rd. That was also on a good track not a fast track.
#7 Exaulted- Should be close to the pace just
sitting off. Taking a jump in class here. 7 furlongs
seems to be the perfect distance for this
horse. Seems to keep getting better and I would expect a big race here with
Mike Smith aboard.
#1 Storm the Court- Will get back to the dirt
for the first time since the Kentucky Derby. He is the most battle tested horse
in this field as this horse has been in the toughest races.
#9 Tigre Di Slugo – Will be closing and is
always there at the end. The question will be how quick does the #6 Brickyard
Ride go and does anybody apply pressure to him for the #9 to run down.
#1 Smooth Like Straight- Is usually right off
the leader or sometimes on the lead. This race I
think he gets the lead from the rail with not
too much pressure. The horse does really good on
the turf winning 6 of 11 starts. Also does
well at Santa Anita and the distance winning 3 of 5 at
this distance. One of the leading jockeys
Umberto Rispoli chose the #1 over the #2 Hit the Road
who Rispoli was on and won with the last 3
#9 Ride a Comet – Has won 4 in a row and 6 of
his last 7 races. Won 5 of 6 races lifetime on the
turf and 3 for 3 at the distance. Just had a
101 beyer last race which was only beat by the #10
Flying Scotsman who had a 102. #9 Ride a Comet
has improved his beyer from the race before in 7 consecutive races. If he does
it again, he will be tough to beat.
#2 Maxfield – Is a perfect 5 for 5 in his
career. Has had a slow break or bumped start in 4 of
those. Really needs to work on that before
that costs him a victory. Jockey Florent Geroux rides
him for the 3rd straight race and the slow starts seem to be
getting better with him aboard.
Horse has gotten better every start and has
posted a better beyer each race.
#7 Tizamagician- If there was going to be a
horse that could steal this race from the front end it's this one. Jockey
Drayden Van Dyke gets aboard him for 5th time in the other four has finished first or
#4 Mr. Impossible - One of the more
experienced runners in here. This will be his 3rd race and
already has a 2nd and 3rd finish. Last race
had a stumble out of the gate and got bumped from
both sides. Should be close to the lead from
#11 Defunded- Has 1 start and that was a 3rd
place finish but that was all the way back in
August. In that race he was fractious hoping
he had more schooling and is ready to go. Has
been working out really well.
#3 Patron d'Oro- 1st time starter working out
really well and has Prat up. Trainer hits at 12%
with 1st timers and has won with 2 out of his
last 3 starts with 1st timers.
#6 Vantage Point- 1st time starter with good
workouts. The trainer does really good debut
starters hitting 3 out of 9 for 33 %.
#5 Sal N Louie- Workouts are really good and
the jockey Jessica Pyfer likes to take her horses to
the front. If he gets out to the front you
never know ,and he will be a big price.
#12 Chaos Reigns- 2nd career race and has been
working out well in between races.
Tom's thoughts, tips and Pick 4 Ticket
Race#8 – #6
Brickyard Ride – very nice race last out against state-breds. Took the lead and
didn't look back. There is speed in this race so making the lead and holding on
will be the key. First time at 7 furlongs so I have questions about that but
the workout on February 6th of 1:10.4 is what sold me he's in very
good shape. The 2-maintenance works after the 6 furlong work were good too.
#4 – Manhattan Up
toss out last race show little interest in running on the turf. He has run at
the distance 4 times and won once but verse grade 2 horses he finished up track
but both of those races, the field was much better than this grade 2.
#8 – Loud Mouth
overall good races laying off the pace. Should get up in time for a placing in
Race#9 - #5
Spirit Animal – last race vs some of the same horse. On the turn, a horse was
steady in front of him and at the 1/8th pole, he lacked room and was
moving forward in the 2 path. It was an awful trip. Time between races seems
normal pattern and he has tried the 1 mile turf 3 times and won 2 and placed in
the other race vs. lesser. His last 2 workouts were on the turf at 5 furlongs
and were good. Chad Brown with Joel Rosario up, this appears to be ready to go
forward just stay out of trouble.
#3 – Social
Paranoia has won all of his turf mile races. He was back in one race and was
closer to the pace in the other two races. Ran well last time out but distance
is questionable. The 7 ½ or 1 mile distance appears to be best.
#9 – Ride a Comet
is the hot horse winning his last four races. He is 3 for 3 on the turf at 1
mile. Will be near the pace and close at the end.
Race#10 - #2
Maxfield is undefeated in his 5 starts. Was on the Derby trail but got hurt.
Maxfield can come from far back, like in the last race and win or be close to
the pace. This is step up but has won at the grade 1 level before. He has
generally been a slow starter, so he will be out of the gate a step or 2
#5 – Express
Train ran a great race last time out He will be just behind the pace setter.
#7 – Tizamagician
appears to be the lone speed in this race. If he holds it together, he should get
placing in this race.
Rqce#11 - #10
Following Sea a first-time starter for Bob Baffert who has a 35% win rate. Is
this possible a Derby horse? I doubt it based on the breeding because the mare
was a stakes winner (who won at sprint distances only) and her 2 foals that
raced have both won as 2 years at first asking in sprints. So, this might be
the right place to get started in his racing career. Impressive workout of
1:11.4 from the starting gate.
#11 – Defunded
another Baffert horse who was not on his best behavior for his first start. He
finished 3rd, been away since August has been gelded since.
#3 – Patron d'Oro
has work well for debut.
If it's not one
of these to win then expect a big price winner!
Pick 4 – Cost
Race# 8 –
Race# 9 –
Race#10 – 2
Rich's Pick 4 –
listen to the podcast to know why.
Race 8: 5,6,9
Race 9: 1,2,6,8
Race 10: 1,2
Race 11: 3,8,10,11