A One Way Ticket to Churchill

Horse Racing Radar
Rich Bieglmeier
Rich Bieglmeier is a Staff writer for Horse Racing Radar
Sunday, March 7, 2021

Yesterday, LIFE IS GOOD made easy work of the San Felipe Stakes to get 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points. Today, the winner of the Grade III, $100,000 Santa Ysabel Stakes will get 50 points for the Kentucky Oaks, sending at least two Santa Anita representatives to Churchill Downs.

A skinny field of five will try to run straight from Arcadia, California to Louisville, Kentucky going 1 1/16 miles on the main track.  Oddsmakers see KALYPSO (PP: 4 ML 8/5) as the filly to beat. She finished second as the favorite to the injured MOONLIGHT D'ORO in the Grade III, Las Virgenes Stakes at Santa Anita. Trainer Bob Baffert rebounds at 24% the next time out with failed chalk.

BEAUTIFUL GIRL (PP: 2 ML 5/2) tied KALYPSO for the highest, last race speed figure, breaking her debut in the second try as the $0.70 favorite. While she shared the speed number, her final mile time is the fastest in the field. If she can rewind and run the same time, BEAUTIFUL GIRL will have a beautiful win by a half a horse or more.

Maybe MORAZ (PP: 5 ML 9/5) can undo what was done in the Las Virgenes where she crossed the line third and was well beaten by MOONLIGHT D'ORO and KALYPSO. She didn't have an excuse and was never a threat. Unfortunately, nothing in her recent works suggest she'll be any closer here and she'll be chasing BEAUTIFUL GIRL and KALYPSO all the way around the track.

HEELS UP (PP: 3 ML 9/2) is Baffert's third horse in this field (BEAUTIFUL GIRL, KALYPSO) and seems overmatched. The only number she owns is price. She is the most expensive filly in the field at $350,000. Maybe she can live up to the price tag eventually, but most likely not here. Her best chance is to try something different, get to the lead, extend with a powerful mid-move and outlast the others to the wire.

REAL HERO (PP: 1 ML 12-1) needs to improve a lot to have a shot against the top tier competitors. She added a 1/16 mile in his last race and the fractions slowed noticeably. In the race before her last, she ran a distant third to MORAZ in a five-horse field. She could start last and finish last.

We'll go with BEAUTIFUL GIRL pulling off the minor upset, KALYPSO taking the silver and MORAZ the bronze.


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