"Turf Paradise Has a Derby?" is the catch line
for Friday's, Free
Horse Racing Handicapping Contest. Now that we know, let's handicap that
sucker and see if we can find a winning ticket. That way, if you aren't the
lucky one who wins the $50 prize, we can all be winners; provided we unlock the
A field of 11 will race 1 1/16 miles in Turf Paradise's main
track for their share of the $50,000 in prize money. It's a two-turn race
that's favored off the pace types in the handful of races at the distance and
surface, meet to date. Four of the five to run into the winners' circle were
Typically, the eventual champ was seventh at the quarter
pole – wow – with an average field size of 7.4 horses. By the time they hit the
half-mile call, the soon to be winner ran fourth. From experience, when closing
is the favored running style, post position doesn't usually play a role. We see
that here as well as the first five wins were spread out.
Well, since closers are the way, we might as well start from
the back and work our way forward. Let's start with late pace figures to
identify the horses with the most late run, according to the numbers.
SATURDAY VALUE (PP: 2 ML 6-1) reached the highest point for
these horse in his last race. He achieved the highwater mark going wire to
wire, breaking his maiden at 6 furlongs. He didn't push the meter as high in
his debut, which was at 1 mile.
MANDREW (PP: 9 ML 20-1) is a bit of a surprise here
considering his morning line odds. He's yet to win a race in five outings but
this is his third start following a layoff and is first try at race of a mile
or more. That late kick could work to his benefit at a nice price. It also
doesn't hurt to see his trainer Bart Hone wins third starts and first routes at
22%, two of his better angles.
SUPERDUTY JUSTICE (PP: 5 ML 6-1) ranks third in the last
race, late pace figure column. He's coming out a 7 ½ furlong grass go and will
also test a route for the first time. He's a neck away from winning both of his
Turf Paradise dirt races after debuting a Santa Anita and at Golden Gate in his
MR. TRIPLEDOUBLE (PP: 3 ML 5-1), BECKHAM JAMES (PP: 6 ML
4-1) and DEVILS WORKSHOP (PP: 11 ML 30-1) all tied for fourth.
We also examined the average late pace score for the last
three races, consistency matters too.
The numbers don't change much, just the order:
#2 SATURDAY VALUE
# 6 BECKHAM JAMES
# 5 SUPERDUTY JUSTICE
Morning line favorite, IT'S MY HOUSE (PP: 7 ML 3-1) is way
down both lists. In fact, he is dead last in both the last race and average
number. It's not all that surprising considering he's been on/near the lead in
his last two races. He tried the stalking style in his debut and almost got
home but went to the barn for a few months and came out a sprinter in the next
pair of races.
Other than the pre-race favorite and our closers list,
TONY'S TAPIT (PP: 8 ML 5-1) is another horse to add to our mix as he is a horse
for the Turf Paradise course. The son of TONALIST has run at TP four times,
hitting the wire first a trio of times with a third by a head against BECKHAM
JAMES and MR. TRIPLEDOUBLE in his latest effort.
By all accounts and the early lines, this is a wide-open
race and picking the winner will likely have a big say on who wins Friday's, Free
Horse Racing Handicapping Contest.
We are going to go with #6 BECKHAM JAMES. He could be the
biggest beneficiary of going the longest any of these have gone except IT'S MY
HOUSE, who ran 1 1/8 miles at Golden Gate on February 13th. As for wagering on the race, without a clear
choice, we'll box:
#6 BECKHAM JAMES, #7 IT'S MY HOUSE, # TONY'S TAPIT and # 9
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