HRR

 

PODCAST: Jockey David Cabrera Joins the Show

Horse Racing Radar
Rich Bieglmeier
Rich Bieglmeier is a Staff writer for Horse Racing Radar
Friday, March 12, 2021
The always smiling, ever optimistic David Cabrera joins the crew and answers the all important question... Chivas or America?

He also shares some great insights on his mounts in races 6, 8, 10 and 12 and his thoughts on his horses' chances this Saturday. Terry, Shawn, Tom and Rich add their picks and analysis in another fun and hopefully profitable show!


Terry's Selections and Suggested Wagers

Race#6:

#10 Claytnthelionheart – Cabrera returns to ride Claytnthelionheart again after entering the stretch four wide and running 2nd by a length last race out. He is very competitive and has improved in each of his last three races.

#2 Trident Hit is in from the Fair Grounds, in that race he did not win but he had a very rough trip and still ran 2nd. He has a good trainer/jockey combination will close from way back.

#3 Excession is Grade 2-placed at Oaklawn and has been in the money four out of six times in his career at this distance. He has the best Beyer of 95 in the race and has won the highest amount of money per race than his competition.

Race#8:

#7 Secret Courier is going for his 3rd win in a row. He won his only start at Oaklawn despite some trouble at the break. He has won 33% of his starts which is the best win percentage in the race.

#3 Royal Daaher was only beaten by a ½ length last time out after having to check late in the race. He is from a Grade 3-placed mare who has produced a seven-time winner in the multiple stakes-placed Game Time Decision

#8 Marvin is 10 out of 10 in the money during his career. He likes the track and the distance.

Race#10:

#6 Whitmore starts his season entered in the Hot Springs, a race he has won a record four times. He is making his first start since a November win in the Breeders' Cup Sprint in which he earned a Beyer of 104. His earnings of over $4,000,000 dwarf all other entries in the race.

#3 Mr.Jagermeisterl  ran 2nd to Whitmore at Oaklawn a year ago. He recently had a bullet work of 58.80 seconds at Oaklawn and will try to break on top and lead all the way.

#2 Flagstaff needed his last race and has had a couple of good works since. He has been in the money in 80% of his starts winning 30% of those starts.

Race#12:

#13 General Trev appears to be able to lead or come from off the pace which is a favorite handicapping angle of mine. He has won 2 of 3 of his starts and was placed from 3rd to 2nd though a disqualification, which means it is possible that he could be three wins out of three starts.

#5 Truculent was 2nd last time out at a 1-1/16. Shortening to a mile today should only help his run to the finish.

#6 Niles Channel returns to a mile which he ran last time out and won. He will definitely be closing with a rush from way back.

#10 Off the Meds won his last race at Oaklawn and will be in the thick of things at the end.

$.50 Pick 4-$36.00

·         #6 – 2-3-10

·         #7 – 5-7

·         #8 – 3-7-8

·         #9 – 1-2-4-7

$.50 Pick 4-$32.00

·         #9 – 1-2-4-10

·         #10 – 6

·         #11 – 1-4-6-7

·         #12 – 5-6-10-13

Race 10

$20.00 Win #6  
$6.00 Exacta 6/2,3

Shawn's Picks and Plays

RACE 6

#1 Ashaar- Has speed and will use it to his advantage with the rail. He does not need the lead but might get it here.  Has been off for 2 months but workouts have been really good. Won his career debut then stepped up in class right away for next 2 starts and didn't fare too well. The 2 starts after that were in optional claiming and were a lot better especially the last race before the break.

#10 Claytnthelionheart- Gets the outside post but that is no concern as this will be the 4th straight race he draws the widest post. In those races he has two runner ups and a 3rd. This is a horse I would be concerned about playing to win but you have to use it in all exotics. Running this distance of 1 mile and 1/16 he has finished 2nd in 3 of the 5 races including last race which was his first at Oaklawn. That was also jockey David Cabrera's first time on the horse.

#9 Impossible Task- 2nd race back after a 14-month layoff.  Has speed in a race that doesn't have too much of it.  Workouts have been outstanding as he has had 3 bullets in a row since last race.

Plays:

$20 win #1
$1 Exacta box 1,9,10
$1 Trifecta box 1,9,10

RACE 8

#1 One for Richie – The last 2 races have been outstanding winning both by over 5 lengths. Loves Oaklawn winning 4 of his 6 career starts there. Inside post will be an advantage with his speed but is not a need the lead type horse. That will help here since there is other speed in the race.

#4 Soul Streight- Has one way to go and that's right to the lead. Looks to be the speed of the race and has won half of his career starts winning 5 of 10. At this distance has won 3 of 4.  I really like the ML price of 8/1.  This will be his first race in 2 ½ months but workouts have been really good including a bullet where he was best out of 50 horses a month ago.

#7 Secret Courier- Won his last race which was his first in the Diodoro barn and let's face Oaklawn is Diodoro's territory. Has finished in exacta 5 of 8 races on a fast dirt track.

Plays:

$15 win #1
$5 win #4
$1 Exacta box 1,4,7

RACE 10

#6 Whitmore – A fan favorite and one of my favorites to watch. He loves Oaklawn winning 9 of 14 and only missing the exacta in one of those starts. Has beaten a lot of these horses in prior races including 2nd choice #7 C Z Rocket who he beat last start by 3 ¼ lengths in the BC sprint.

#1 Bolder- Has had back-to-back wins. Has a good late kick and that style should work in here. Also gets the rail which will help him save all the ground he can.  I would imagine if this race falls apart which it could you will see #6 Whitmore and #1 Bolder closing and battling out for the win. Won 3 out of 5 with 1 second going this distance.

#2 Flagstaff – Has been losing to some of these same horses but one you have to use for exotics. He has finished in exacta in 11 of 16 career starts.

Plays:

$10 exacta 6/1
$5 exacta 6/2
$1 trifecta box 1,2,6

RACE 12

#10 Off the Meds- Looking for value in this race as it's completely wide open. I like the ML price of 12/1 and these connections of Hamilton/Mason despite struggling right now can bring in prices . Won his last race which was his first at Oaklawn. He's won at the distance before and won 2 of 5 career races on a fast dirt track. I didn't know what to make of the pace so this horse should be safe no matter what the pace is as he should be sitting mid pack.

#4 Optimus Kat- Just broke his maiden last race which was also his first start at Oaklawn. He Should be close to the pace.  Has 3 career starts on a fast dirt track won 1 and placed in another. 6/1 ML is to high but we will take it.

# 6 Niles Channel- Has won at the track and distance before. Has never won on a fast dirt track but has placed in 3 of the 7 races he ran on it. Seems to be a deep closer which might be tough in here, but I would use for exotics.

Plays:

$6 win #4 and #10
$1 exacta box 4,6,10
$.50 trifecta box 4,6,10

Tom's Analysis

Race#6 - #9 – Impossible Task showed a little pace last out in the mud and then back out. Since then, he has had 3 really good works. I think that with the works, this horse wants more distance and will be closer to the lead this time.  John Sadler is not having a great meet so far, but it appears that his barn is now coming into form and a race over the track helps. Joe Talamo also has not had a great meet vs last year and the same maybe true for him.

#3 – Excession faced the same level last race and had some trouble. Better trip and he will be in the money.

#7 – Totally Jimbo I think a fast-track helps and will be around for a placing in this race.

Race#8 - #9 American Butterfly was improving in the last race and made up ground on the far outside. Better trip today. Since that race, he worked 3 times and the February 1 work of :46.4 breezing was very good. I also feel that a fast track will help his chances.

#2 – Special Reserve a win and claimed of the last race. Moving up and the last 3 races have been good. One question I have is if Mike Maker claimed this horse for future turf racing. He has 2 wins from 5 starts on the turf.

#6 – Fast Breakin Cash is dropping in class and has enough ability to hit the board and maybe at a price.

Race#10 - #7 CZ Rocket hasn't raced since the Breeders' Cup Sprint but has been working since December. Very good work on March 2. Claimed for 40k and keep on improving every race since. Should sit off the lead and will come at the end.

#6 – Whitmore loves Oaklawn with 9 wins from 14 starts but has shown in the past he needs a race before he wins after a layoff. Ron Moquett entered Firecrow, will be on the lead, to setup Whitmore? 

#1 – Boldor will be coming later with Whitmore.

Race#12 - #13 General Trev is on the AE list so he must hope for a scratch to draw in. Off a claim and won by over 6 lengths. Lightly raced and be protected from claim by trying to run in a starter allowance. If he doesn't draw in, then my choice is #6 Truculent showed a nice turn of foot last out at this level. On the lead and hold on going the mile. Only has run this distance once but that was a one turn mile at Belmont.

#11 – Katzarelli wide most of the race last out but has shown this in the past races. Run at the same level and the outside post doesn't me as much as traffic does. Coming on late.

#8 – Oro de Tejano second race off the claim just needs a better trip to be up for a placing.

BONUS PICK for Tuesday, March 16th. Hurdle racing at Cheltenham.

15:05 Cheltenham 16 Mar 2021 (9:05am Central Time)
Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy
Grade 1 | GBB Race | Class 1 | 4YO plus

Winner £189,911 - 14 entered to run Distance 2m 87y

James Du Berlais (FR) transferred to trainer Mullins after good efforts in France. (13 starts 4 wins 5 places at 30% money finishes). Won grade 3 races and this is a step up to grade 1. Has run well on soft/heavy surfaces. I won't take odds less than 15-1. The big favorite is Honeysuckle list at 9/4 right now.

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/who-is-james-du-berlais/187193

Rich's Tips and possible wagers

Race 6

#1 ASHAAR could be lone speed in a field full of closers.

#10 CLAYTNTHELIONHEART has already beat the 3, 6, 7, 8 and missed by a length in last and first following two-months in the barn. David should have a little more horse in the second start off the bench.

#3 EXCESSION has faced the toughest competition and is another that as room to be better in his seconf start following a layoff.

#2 TRIDENT HIT came off the bench to run his top speed figure and he should be at least as good in second start.

Exacta Box 1,2,3,10

Race 8

#1 ONE FOR RICHIE – it's all in the name, plus he's won four of six at OP, including the top last race speed figure. If he runs the same 6 furlong time as he did in his last, it will be his third win in a row.

# 7 SECRET COURRIER stays within today's apparent theme for me, is another horse with an opportunity to step forward in his second race following a layoff.

It looks like there is going to be a lot of speed in this race, # 3 ROYAL DAAHER could sit right off the lead and get the perfect pace set up for his

# 9 AMERICAN BUTTERFLY is ITM six of eight at the distance and four of six at OP, 100% in the money at the Optional Claiming level.

Trifecta Box 1,3,7,9

Race 10

Defending champ #6 WHITMORE has never missed the board in 14 at OP. He's an off the pace type and this one might not go too fast early.

#4 MR. JAGERMEISTER was second here last year and could get out to the front and will have a chance to control the pace. A bullet work on March 6th and finishing ITM four of five at OP says he likes the track.

Going to give the edge to #1 BOLDER over #7 CZ ROCKET, especially if it's wet, possible rain in the forecast. BOLDER will go going for his third win in a row and CZ Rocket, as good as he is, he is 0-4 at OP.

Exacta and Trifecta 4,6/1,4,6,7

RACE 12

# 5 – TRUCUELENT should be close to the front all the way around the track and has been against better company than most of these.

# 10 – OFF THE MEDS won his last in his first race since mid-November. It was his first at OP and owns the best speed figure at the distance.

#14 – GALLANT PLUNGER is an AE and would likely be near the top of the list if she gets in.

#8  -ORO DE TEJANO should be closing fast and should be better in second start off the layoff.

Exacta Box 5,8,10,14 if the 14 gets in otherwise 5,8,10,11

Trifecta 5,8,10,14 or 11/5,8,10/5,8,10,14 or 11

 

Get today's full picks for all tracks and races at Guaranteed Tip Sheet.