Shawn's Picks and Plays
#1 Factor This- Looks to be the early leader from the inside
post. If he does get it, then he will be really dangerous and if he doesn't he
has no shot. 2nd start after a 2 month break. Most of his success has come with
jockey Shaun Bridgmohan who is riding here.
#5 Colonel Liam- The best horse in the race with the best
rider Irad Ortiz Jr. He likes to run from mid pack but pace doesn't seem to
matter as he is always seems to be there at the end. Just beat Largent in his
last race in a Grade 1 race
#6 Logical Myth- Has won 5 of 7 at Fairgrounds with a
second. Should be close to the pace somewhere from 3rd-5th and come from there.
Has been in the exacta in 6 straight races.
Plays: $20 win #1 $1 exacta box 1,5,6 $1 Tri box
#1 Zaajel- Should get a nice stalking trip from the rail.
She is 2 for 2 and has done nothing wrong. She even overcame a slow start last
race to win. Seems to be the best horse in the race with the best jockey in
Irad Ortiz Jr.
#8 Travel Column- Should be able to get the lead and have a
good finish from there as I don't think it will be a fast pace. Last 2 races
have flip flopped 1 2 finishes with the #6 Clairiere. I think the pace will
favor the #8 Travel Column here over the #6 Clairiere.
#6 Clairiere- Will be flying late concern would be just how
much pace will there be for her to get up. She hasn't done much wrong in her 3
starts winning 2 and finishing second in the other one.
Plays: $24 win #1 $1 Exacta box 1,6,8 $1 Tri Box
#4 Proxy- Has finished 2nd in two straight races in between
the #6 Mandloun and the #7 Midnight Bourbon who swapped victories and a 3rd
place finish in those 2 races. The #4 Proxy has bumped coming out of the gate the
last 2 races hoping for a clean start here. Gets blinkers here and the distance
is different so maybe he turns the tables.
#6 Mandloun – Has won 3 of 4 career races. Has beaten many
of these horses before. Will stalk the pace and be there at the end.
#5 Hot Rod Charlie- Will close at the end and should finish
in the trifecta. Last 2 races missing out on victories by less than a length.
Plays: $20 win #4 $1 Exacta box 4,5,6 $1 Tri box
Terry's Analysis and Suggested Wagers
#5 Colonel Liam – is going for his 3rd win in a row. This is
the greatest Todd Pletcher turf horse since English Channel and ridden by
jockey Irad Ortiz! He is the class of this field.
#12 Pixelate has finished in the money 80% of the time
during his career. He does well at today's distance finishing in the money 75%
of the time.
#4 Cross Border is a son of English Channel, has major
ability and is one of Mike Maker's top turf routers. This is a turf specialist
who has matched up against some of the best in the country including Sadler's
#1 Factor This is at his home track and he is the defending
#8 Travel Column was only beaten by a neck last time out
losing to #6 Clairiere in the Rachel Alexandra (G2). I think she will turn the
tables on Clairiere and win the race.
#6 Clairiere won the Rachel Alexandra (G2) last time by a
neck over her rival, #8 Travel Column.
The daughter of Curlin has won two out of three races, having trouble in
the only one she ran second in. Joe Talamo returns to ride her again.
#4 Li'l Tootsie is the daughter of Tapiture. She likes the
track and the distance. She has a powerful late-breaking running style, and she
will be a good price with a big chance.
#4 Proxy is a colt out of Tapit and is well-classed through
his bloodlines. In the Lecomte (G3) he finished second to #7 Midnight Bourbon
and beat #6 Mandaloun.
#7 Midnight Bourbonl proved in the Lecomte (G3) with regular
rider Joe Talamo aboard that he has plenty of early speed and if not pressured
could lead all of the way.
#3 Run Classic is an off-spring of Runhappy and showed great
improvement in his last race improving his Beyer number by 8 points. He is
going up in class and could be competitive in this race.
$1.00 Pick 3-$36.00
#12 – 1-4-5-12
#13 – 4-6-8
#14 – 2-4-7
#12 – 1-4-5-12
#13 – 4-6-8
#12 – 4-6-8
#13 – 2-4-7
Race 12-$6.00 Win #6
Race 12-$8.00 Win #8
Race 12-$8.00 Win #4
Tom's Tips and International Thoughts
#11 – Olympic Runner ever since his move to Florida, he has
run well in the last 3 races including a grade 3 last time out. He's come from
way back to win or been nearer to the lead finishing second in the other 2
starts and in those 2 starts, he lost to good horses. He has had issues in the
last 2 races. He should be sitting back in mid pack with cover and come on
#6 – Logical Myth has run first or second in his last 4
races. Like Fair Grounds turf course with a record of 5 wins from 7 starts. He
will be around for a share.
#5 – Colonel Liam is the one to beat.
#5 – Obligatory a maiden winner last out with a very strong
pace figure. Based on breeding, 2 turns shouldn't be an issue. This Bill Mott
trainee is going to be ridden by Jose Ortiz which I find very interesting
because he doesn't have a mount in the Louisiana Derby. He rode her last time
out, so he must have felt something very positive in that race to come and ride
#8 – Travel Column has finished in the money in all 4
starts. She should be on or near the lead and just got beat last out.
#3 – Souper Sensational had troubled race last time out and
gets a new jockey today. She has 2 races over the course and the without
trouble, should get a piece.
#5 Hot Rod Charlie ran a great race to finish second in the
Breeder's Cup Juvenile race to a very good horse at 94-1. Last out, he just
missed by a neck and had some issues at 1/8 pole. This will be the next test of
how good he could be. It's interesting that he is the only horse with no starts
over the Fair Ground dirt track so shipping here instead of a race out west or
at Oaklawn is very interest move to me.
#4 – Proxy has finished in the money in all his races to
some of these horses before and should be in the money again.
#6 – Mandaloun will be the favorite has only run one race
that he didn't win. The one to beat.
Hong Kong Derby for 4 year olds. To be run Sunday,
March 21. Stay up very late (or wake up early) to watch. This is one of the
biggest races of the year in Hong Kong.
My pick is: Russian Emperor
He is by Galileo one of the top sires in the world.
The dam is Atlantic Jewel won ten of her 11 starts,
including three Group One races.
The last race, Russian Emperor finished 2nd. He then won a
barrier trial race. It takes time for European horses to adapt to Hong Kong
racing and this appears to be the case with this horse. The first 2 races in
Hong Kong were not good but with the 4-week break and now much better results.
They paid a lot of money for this horse with this race in mind. Russian Emperor
won the Hampton Court at Royal Ascot and ran in 3 races in England before his
move to Hong Kong.
First by a neck
TRIAL Sha Tin H8 03/09/2021 - Barrier Trial
1600m Good Karis Teetan (1) 1:35.690 2-Silver Express (M
Chadwick, 9) 0 , 3-Excellent Proposal (B Shinn, 7) 0 5L , 4-Packing Waltham (N
Callan, 6) 0 6L . 0 horse(s) from this race have won since.
Second by a nose to the winner
Sha Tin R9 02/12/2021 - Classic Cup
1800m Good $12.0M Keith Yeung (11) 57 1:47.210 [email protected],
[email protected] 1-Healthy Happy (A Badel, 8) 57, 3-Shadow Hero (Z Purton, 9) 57 0.4L ,
4-Excellent Proposal (B Shinn, 5) 57 0.8L . 0 horse(s) from this race have won
Second by a neck to the winner
TRIAL Sha Tin H8 02/02/2021 - Barrier Trial
1600m Good Christophe Soumillon (4) 1:38.680 1-Playa Del
Puente (Z Purton, 8) 0 , 3-Charity Fun (K Teetan, 5) 0 1.9L , 4-Turquoise Alpha
(V Borges, 6) 0 3.3L . 0 horse(s) from this race have won since.
This is a competitive race where I think any of the top three,
four choice could win.
Going with an Exacta Box with:
#5 – Colonel Liam 3-1
#1 – Factor This 4-1
#6 – Logical Myth 6-1
#8 – Spooky Channel 8-1
And a Pick 3
Race 12: 1,5,6
Race 13: 1,4,6,8
Race 14: 3,4,6
Fillies hit the Fair Grounds Oaks with 100 Kentucky Oaks
points to the winner for the taking. Going with the exacta box again with:
#6 – Clairiere 2-1
#4 – Li'l Tootsie 4-1
#8 – Travel Column 5/2
#1 – Zaajel 8-1
Race 13 could be a moderately slowish race. If ZAAJEL can
steal easy fractions on the lead, she could be hard to pass late.
The Louisiana Derby winner also gets to make Churchill
reservations as it's the first 100 points to the victor race. Most of the field
ran in the Risen Star, but it's not certain that the order will remain the
same. Listen to the show to find out why I reluctantly left HOT ROD CHARLIE out
of my top four.
#6 – Mandaloun 8/5
#4 – Proxy 7/2
#3 – Run Classic 12-1
#7 – Midnight Bourbon 5-1
Going to end the day with a trifecta here: