HRR

Florida Derby Wagering Guide Preview

Horse Racing Radar
Rich Bieglmeier
Rich Bieglmeier is a Staff writer for Horse Racing Radar
Saturday, March 27, 2021

It's about to get hectic as the Road to the 2021 Kentucky Derby makes some of its last stops on the way to Churchill Downs for Saturday, May 1st.  Today, there are two, 100 points to the winner races, the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park and the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park (No, that's not a mistake or autofill, it is really steaks).

Our friends at Guaranteed Tips Sheet have both covered in their full card picks for Saturday. They also have an exclusive 11-page wagering guide that covers Gulfstream Park's 10 Stakes races with at least $100,000 in prize money.

The Florida Derby Wagering Guide contains a trove of great information for horseplayers from analysis for the top contenders and value plays, to post position, distance and surface biases, to horse running styles, to the early race setup, to picks. It's the sort of in-depth 4-1-1 you can use to compliment your handicapping or use as a standalone guide for Gulfstream's stakes packed day.

Guaranteed Tip Sheet was generous enough to share the SANIBEL ISLAND STAKES portion of their Florida Derby Wagering Guide with Horse Racing Radar.

It starts with...

RACE #3 - ANALYSIS OF TOP CONTENDERS

4 – World Tour won her first race with the second best, debut speed figures for this group. Her final 1-mile time on Gulfstream turf was one of the fastest for this field. We expect she'll be better in her second career start and round one was good enough.

#1 – Coworth Park has raced twice over Gulfstream's turf course and won both of them. She's oh for three at any other track or distance. Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr is the top, turf distance rider at GP, hitting the board at nearly 60%.

#3 – Joy of Painting is dropping from a Grade III and shortening from 1 1/16 miles. She has the lead going into the stretch but finished third. The cut back in distance and class, plus the potential to be lone speed could be the right combination.

VALUE PLAYS AND LONGSHOTS

#7 – I Get It finished third against Colonel Liam last out, who came back to win the Grade II, Muniz Memorial Classic Stakes at Fair Grounds last weekend. He has a sneaky good trainer/combo with jockey Jose Ortiz finishing in the money at 43% and Ronald Spatz at 52% in turf routes.

#5 – La Libertee ran the highest, last race speed figure and might even be better here in her third start off following a four-month layoff. Trainer Mark Casse wins at 15% in round threes.

#6 – Ball Lightning won her last race, her first start since late October and her first route. Trainer Darien Rodriguez wins after a win at 29% and at 28% in second starts off of a break.

 

Then it moves on to PACE ANALYSIS AND TRACK BIAS

After reviewing the horses, their running styles and projected early race shape, the Wagering Guide lays out The Play.

WORLD TOUR will look to improve on her debut and make it two wins to start her career. COWORTH PARK's trainer/jockey combo of Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz, Jr hit a 32% together. JOY OF PAINTING is lone speed and could control the pace from beginning to end. I GET IT has won three of her last five, finished fourth against good company in other two.

And then it wraps up with their top six picks with suggested exacta and trifecta wagers.

This is what's inside the 11-page Florida Derby Wagering Guide for each of Gulfstream's Saturday afternoon of big-time stakes racing.

Would you like to get the rest of the guide? All you need is a ONE MONTH PRO subscription to Guaranteed Tip Sheet and they have been kind enough to send us a 50% OFF PROMO CODE that you can use to get one! 

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