Top 5 winningest trainer for the last half-decade, Robertino Diodoro had a front row seat in this year's Road to the Kentucky Derby. He's seen ESSENTIAL QUALITY, HOD ROD CHARLIE and CONCERT TOUR up close.
Robertino didn't hesitate to tell us which one is his pick to wear the Kentucky Derby Crown.
Currently second on Oaklawn's trainer leaderboard, Diodoro reveals Oaklawn's heavy track bias and what running style should benefit on Arkansas Derby Day. He also sneaks in some "inside" 4-1-1 on a maiden horse and one of his own that you don't want to miss.
This is one of the most informative shows, including a resource most handicappers overlook that could improve your chances of finding more winners.
Make sure you follow Robertino Diodoro at:
Terry "Hollywood" Hay's Handicapping
1 - Sianara is trained by Steven Asmussen and ridden by
Santana. She has the best Beyer Speed Figure in the race and ran a good second
last time out.
#4 - Frosted Blue is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Firing
Line ($916K) and she raced against an eventual Grade 1 winner last out in
#2 - My My Munny had speed in her first race but faded. She
has been working well for her second start.
#6 - Amazing Rocket is trained by Brad Cox who does well
with first time starters and ridden by Geroux a formable rider-trainer
combination. He has been consistently working to start his career.
#8 - Following Sea comes off a good second in a maiden
allowance at Santa Anita and earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 77 the best career
number of all the runners in the race. He draws a good post to suit what
appears to be his running style.
#5 - Happymac fought hard and only lost by a neck in his
#7 - Shashashakemeup ran second in a Grade 3 race at Santa
Anita on Jan. 21. He owns the best last-race Beyer Figure in the race and is
returning to a surface over which he won an allowance at this distance. He has
been working consistently since his last start for his return.
#6 – Strike Me Down ran second at Santa Anita after lacking
racing room and is now back to dirt. He's from a Grade 2-winning mare Strike
Softly who won $683K and who has produced a Grade 3 winner in Golden Sabre.
#9 - One for Richie has won two of three starts at the meet.
This one's multiple stakes-winning dam won 15 races.
#5 - Concert Tour does nothing but win and is trained by Bob
Baffert. On top of that Rosario is in the irons.
#3 - Hozier is also trained by Bob Baffert, has been working
well and is a closer and may nip the leader at the end.
#2 - Caddo River has finished in the money 80% of the time
winning 40% of those starts during his career.
$.50 Pick 3-$27.00
Race #3 –
Race #4 –
Race #5 –
Race 12-$30.00 Exacta #5 with #2 & #3
Race 12-$6.00 Trifecta #3 with #2 & #5
Swiss Army Shawn's Selections and Plays
#3 Coppelia – Should get a good setup as I see the #1 Sinara
and #2 My My munny battling it out for the lead. This will be her second start
and the trainer Phillip Bauer has had a winner in 4 of 9 maidens 2nd
starts. Workouts have been really good
since last race as well. If she could show a little bit more speed and be a
little closer than last time, then she will win this race.
#5 Priddis- Going with the unknown and a 1st time starter
from a high percentage barn in Diodoro.
Looking at workouts nothing special as far as speed could benefit from a
#1 Sianara- If a horse was going to get away on the lead and
win it's this horse. Layoffs for this horse is a concern to take this price.
Ran debut then off 5 months and now it's been 2 months since last race.
Plays: $20 win #3 $1 Exbox 1,3,5
#8 Following Sea- This will be his 2nd start. Last race he
finished 2nd but was green and got disqualified for bumping another horse. He
should get a nice trip and setup here. 2nd choice here has 2 Beyers of 64 while
this horse had a 77 on debut. Seems to be much the best horse in here.
#2 Rising Empire – I like that this horse at least has a
race under his belt compared to some others.
I think this will be a good horse to use to close into the fast pace.
#6 Amazing Rocket – First time starter that has good
connections with Brad Cox and Florent Geroux. Workouts are pretty good.
Plays: $10 Ex 8/2,6 $1 ex 2,6/1,6,8
#6 Strike Me Down- Has only raced on dirt once and finished
2nd. Has already won a race on the turf and synthetic. Has had off for 2 and half months but trainer
Phillip D'Amato has hit at 21% with that kind of layoff. He should get a great setup in here with all
#8 Digital- Another one that should get a great setup in
here. He does well at the 6 furlong distance finishing in the exacta in 4 of 5
starts. Will be his 2nd start after a five and half month layoff.
#4 Senor Jobim- Can run different styles. If he closes from
midpack he could be a player here. Defiantly one you want to use for exotics
and could be a decent price.
Plays: $20 win #6 $1 Exbox 4,6,8
Races 10-13 $1 Pick 4 cost $24 1,2,7,8 / 2 / 5 /
#5 Concert Tour – I would be shocked If we actually see even
money here. I would expect 1/5 or 2/5. This horse hasn't done anything wrong so
far and has been the most impressive Kentucky derby contender along with
#2 Caddo River – It's interesting that Caddo River was
actually the favorite the last race where he was up against Concert Tour and
Hozier. Can he get the lead from the start away from Concert Tour and flip the
#3 Hozier – Will be the closer and the benefit of any speed
duel. I think this time he might be in the trifecta but not the exacta.
20 to 1 Tom's Tips and International Thoughts for the
2021 Randox Grand National
#2 – My My Munny is my choice. This daughter of Munnings had
to contend with post 1 last out but was able to get out ok. In watch the
replay, she hit the rail turning from home and faded back. With the change on
jockey's to Florent Geroux and a race in hand, she should be on the lead and
not look back. The mare has produced 3 starters and the other 2 have won.
#4 – Frosted Blue – faced Princess Noor (stakes winner) at
Del Mar last out in August. With the break, she's worked well coming into this
race and is a first time Lasix. The mare has produced 5 starters and 3 are
winners and 1 is a stakes winner. The mare was stakes placed in her racing
#1 – Sianara – is the one to beat. Even money favorite last
race and floated wide and this could have cost her the win last time.
#8 – Following Sea – he lost to his stablemate Defunded and
was disqualified and placed third in his first race. Defunded ran 4th in the
Santa Anita Derby last Saturday. Bob Baffert put her on the plane with the
Arkansas Derby favorite Concert Tour to run in this maiden race. First time
Lasix and Joel Rosario aboard she should break for the lead. Her mother was a
minor stakes winner, and she has produced to 2 other runners and both are
#4 – Terawatt – first time starter by Nyquist out of a
winner mare, and she has produced 4 starters and 2 have won and 1 is a stakes
winner. She has work well up to this race and should get a piece.
#2 – Rising Empire – didn't really get into his last race
until late. Now with a break from her last start and very good works for this
race, he should fare better. Watch. Her mare was a winner (maiden claimer) in
her race career, and she has produced 2 other runners, and both were winners.
The 1 stakes winner is Rocketry who won the Grade 2 Marathon. His best races
were at greater distances of a mile an eighty or longer and was a winner on
both turf and dirt. Is this too short of a distance for Rising Empire? Or maybe
turf racing in his future?
#10 – Frolic More – in his last race, he went off at 39-1
odds and finished strongly to Candy Cornell. A good speed rating of 96 off that
race and he was claimed for 40k 2 races back. He will sit off the leaders and
be moving strongly at the end. In his past racing life, he has faced upper
allowance and graded stakes horses.
#1 – Secret Courier ran an ok race last out vs some of these
same horses. He will show speed and should be around at the end.
#8 – Digital ran a good effort last out after a layoff.
Another horse in this field who has run vs. better horses in the past.
Race#12 – The Arkansas Derby
#5 – Concert Tour – Is this horse now Bob Baffert's best
3-year-old? Won the Rebel geared down at the end. He was very impressive in
he's last race and has put up very impressive speed number in all 3 races. A
Kentucky Derby winner?
#1 – Super Stock has all kinds of problems in the last race
and should be able to get up with a better finishing kick.
#3 – Hozier ran second to Concert Tour last out, but he was
really just beating the rest of the field at being bumped hard. Could he catch
Concert Tour this time? I doubt it.
BONUS COVERAGE – PICKS
2021 Randox Grand National
The Grand National at Aintree is one of those special races
over the fences. The average age of the winner in the past is between 8 to 11
years. The maximum number of runners is 40, currently there are 68 horses
listed. We know Thursday, April 8 the horses that made the field and the race
will be run on Saturday, April 10th at 11:15am Central Time (estimate).
The "favorites" as of this writing are: Cloth Cap, Burrows
Saint, Any Second Now and Minella Times. But let's look for some value.
Yala Knki – this horse has the stamina for this race and
jcokey Bryony Frost fits this horse well. He would like the ground to come of
soft or heavy. I won't take less than 30-1 for a play on this horse.
Discorama – there's back class here and his gone 4 miles,
running second. Discorama is a stayer so he should be around at the end. One
writer wrote that the trainer has made some shrewd moves and adjustments to
make him playable. The weight that he is carrying is favorable too. The horse
hasn't won since 2018 but has run well in defeat. Around 15-1 is the projected
Lake View Lad – has run in this race before (2019) and
pulled up. From some of these latest races, he is showing some old form. The
owner has won this race 3 times and for me he's a why not take a closer look.
Odds of 30-1 could make it interesting.
Potters Corner – can handle most type of ground (good, soft
or heavy). He has run in cross-country chase races and done well. He won the
Welsh National in 2019. Now has he done enough to win here. At a 20-1 chance at
nice return but I won't take any less.
The Irish Grand National was run on Monday and the winner
was 150-1 which is the highest price ever.
1 – Sianara – looks like the best of those that have raced.
8 – Berry Good – listen to the show and you'll know why.
5 – Priddis – debuting and her momma has produced 5 winners
from 7 starters, daddy was rock solid in Australia – might be a two-turn horse.
Again, listen to the show and you'll know.
3 – Coppelia's workouts say she has the edge on the rest.
8 – Following Sea – is Bob Baffert going to drag a maiden
across the country and not win?
5 – Happymac – just missed in her last and should be
improved in three-year-old debut.
6 – Amazing Rocket – just can't pass on jockey Florent
Geroux and trainer Brad Cox duo at Oaklawn.
2 – Rising Empire – looks to be the best of the rest.
7 – Shashashakemeup – top last race speed number and
dropping in class, a winning combo.
1 – Secret Courier – could try to steal this one on the lead
form end to end.
9 – One for Richie – always take horses with my name.
5 – Town Champ – longshot pick of the day – look at those
first time after a claim numbers for Norman McKnight.
Race 12 – Arkansas Derby
5 – Concert Tour and then everybody else
1 - Super Stock might not beat #2 Caddo River, but is a
better value and expecting a big bump here.
3 – Hozier – is the best of the rest.
Get today's full picks for all tracks and races at Guaranteed Tip Sheet.