The 2021 Road to the Kentucky Derby is Over

Horse Racing Radar
Rich Bieglmeier
Rich Bieglmeier is a Staff writer for Horse Racing Radar
Monday, April 12, 2021

With the road to the Kentucky Derby making its final stops yesterday, the top 20 is set. SAINTHOOD the last to make the cut, ranked 20th with 40 points and $47,000. PROXY is first off the board at 21st with 36 points and $160,000. A third-place finish in the Lexington Stakes would have been enough to get him a ticket to Louisville. All is not lost for PROXY fans, a scratch and he's likely to get a shot provided Godolphin Racing feels their horse is ready.

Horseplayers can start the process of deep-dive handicapping to be fully prepared for the most exciting two-minutes in sports. Horse Racing Radar will do our best to assist you with your preparation. Since the Kentucky Derby went to a qualifying system in 2013, every winner amassed at least 100 points.

Seven horses hit the triple-digit threshold. 

  1. ESSENTIAL QUALITY - 140 points

  2. HOT ROD CHARLIE – 110 points

  3. SUPER STOCK – 109 points

  4. LIKE THE KING – 104

  5. KNOWN AGENDA – 102

  6. ROCK YOUR WORLD – 100

  7. BIURBONIC - 100

Since 2013, all of the Kentucky Derby winners ran in one of three races, The Santa Anita Derby, the Florida Derby or the Arkansas Derby. The Florida Derby has won the most with four, the Santa Anita Derby with three and the Arkansas Derby got one. 

Due to COVID, AUTHENTIC took the detour route as the schedule was rearranged but ran second in the Santa Anita Derby. We included MAXIMUM SECURITY in the Florida Derby count as he was first to the line in the 2019 Kentucky Derby.

Going back to 2000, the Florida Derby and the Santa Anita Derby remain the top two contributors to Kentucky Derby championships with seven and five, respectively. The Arkansas Derby count moves to three. The Wood Memorial moves into the picture with three. The Blue Grass Stakes appears with one and three others have one each.

Let's look at the key, Kentucky Derby Race winners:

2021 Florida Derby – KNOWN AGENDA


2021 Santa Anita Derby – ROCK YOUR WORLD


2021 Arkansas Derby – SUPER STOCK


2021 Wood Memorial – BOURBONIC


2021 Blue Grass Stakes – ESSENTIAL QUALITY


Based on recent history, the 2021 Kentucky Derby winner is highly likely to come from one of the five horses listed above. Each comes from a key race and hit the 100 qualifying points threshold. Watch the videos of each horse's winning effort to see which you believe is the most impressive.  Two stand out to me, ROCK YOUR WORLD and KNOWN AGENDA. 

Of course, there are a lot of factors to consider when making your Kentucky Derby picks. Horse Racing Radar will continue to dig through the stats in the next few weeks to help you be fully prepared for the run for the roses.

Along with picking the winner, the huge money pools make the horses that fill in exotics nearly as important, if not more, for horseplayers. Make sure you check out our Kentucky Derby horse profiles as you continue to prepare for the first Saturday of May. Hopefully, Horse Racing Radar can help you turn the most exciting two minutes in sport into two profitable minutes as well.


Get today's full picks for all tracks and races at Guaranteed Tip Sheet.