HRR

 

PODCAST: Special Guests Kerry and Alan Ribble

Horse Racing Radar
Rich Bieglmeier
Rich Bieglmeier is a Staff writer for Horse Racing Radar
Friday, April 16, 2021
The Ribbles tell us what their trainer told them the chances are that MONOMOY GIRL doesn't win. Hint - not very good.  Kerry and Alan talk about one of the all-time greatest Christmas gifts and why the rail at Oaklawn might not be the place to be.



Kerry and Alan, along with the crew, make their picks for Oaklawn Races:

Race 9: $1 Million  Oaklawn Handicap - Grade II 
Race 10:   Optional Claiming 40000b Purse $108,000
Race 11: $1 Million  Apple Blossom Handicap - Grade I

It's another fun show, give it a listen. 


Terry "Hollywood" Hay's Handicapping

Race 9

#1 - Silver State is trained by Steven Asmussen and ridden by Santana. He is going for a fifth win in a row. He is two for two at Oaklawn.

#6 - Owendale can lead or come from behind which is a good angle. He is trained by Brad Cox and Geroux returns to ride him again.

#4 – Warriors Charge is another Brad Cox trained entry that ran second beaten only a head in his last race. He has a bullet work on April 11th in preparation for this race.

#3 – Fearless is trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Irad Ortiz. He has won over 57% of his races.

Race 10

#4 - Welder has accumulated 1.2 million in earnings. He is going for his fifth win in a row and can either lead or come from close to the pace.

#6 - Engage is a Grade 2 winner, trained by Steven Asmussen and ridden by Santana. He has the best lifetime Beyer number of 104 in the race.

#5 - Seven Nation Army broke last in his last race and if he gets a better break this time he can be right there at the end.

Race11

#6 - Monomoy Girl hasn't lost a race in over two years and I don't see her losing here. She has won fourteen races out of sixteen starts running second the other two times, winning but being disqualified from one of those races. She just does not know how to lose!

#3 - Letruska has won two of three of her last starts in graded stakes races. She could be the fly in the ointment and wire the field.

#5 – Getridofwhatailesu other than Monomoy Girl this mare has the best in the money percentage of the field She has steadily been improving her Beyer numbers by leaps and bounds the last four races.

$.50 Pick 4-$66.00

·         Race #9   – 1-3-4-6

·         Race #10 – 4-5-6

·         Race #11 – 6

·         Race #12 – All

Race 11-$10.00 Exacta #6 with #3 & #5

Race 11-$7.00 Trifecta #6 with #3 & #5

Swiss Army's Shawn's Selections

RACE 9

#4 Warrior's Charge – He should get the lead out of the gate rather easily and not have much pressure.  This is his 2nd start after a 6 month layoff. Last race was good despite losing by a half a length considering the time off between races. This horse has finished in the trifecta in all 7 of his starts at Oaklawn winning 3 of them. The fact it is a special day of racing and the track will be souped up will be to his advantage.

#1 Silver State –Has won 4 straight races and should be close to the pace here. 2 for 2 at Oaklawn and has won 5 of 8 on a fast dirt track. Top notch connections in Santana/Asmussen

#2 Express Train- Should be close to the pace. Is 1 for 1 at this distance and has been in the exacta 6 of 7 times on a fast dirt track. Has the 2 highest beyer's in this field which were his last 2 starts. They both came at Santa Anita.

Plays: $20 win #4 $1 ex 1,4/1,2,4,6,8 $5 pick 3 1,3,4/4,5/6

RACE 10

#4 Welder- The class of the field by far winning 26 of 38 lifetime starts. He has been off for 4 months since he has raced but has done fine in the past with a layoff. Has speed but I would expect him to sit off of 2 or 3 horses who will be flying to try and get that lead.

#5 Seven Nation Army- Should be another one that gets a great trip right behind the leaders. Gets jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. for the first time. Making his 3 start off a 3 month layoff and has done well at Oaklawn finishing in the exacta in 6 of 11 starts.

#8 Hot Shot Kid – Will be another one that could get a nice trip here. If you take his dirt starts out, he has won almost half his starts 14 of 30 with another 7 runner up finishes. Concerned about the 7 month layoff as he doesn't always do well coming back from a long layoff. I couldn't find anybody else that would be this price to use so I'm using him in exotics.

Plays: $2 Tri 4/5/All $2 Ex 4/1,6,8

RACE 11

#6 Monomoy Girl- The obvious choice and class of the field. She is a neck and a disqualification from being 16 for 16 lifetime. You will not get even money, probably more like 1/5 or 2/5.

#3 Latruska – This horse will be your early leader, so I give her the best shot to upset Monomoy girl. Also gets Irad Ortiz Jr. for the first time.

#2 Swiss Skydiver – Very nice horse but not in Monomoy Girl's league in my opinion. She should finish in the exacta or Tri.

Plays: $20 ex 6/3 $2 Tri 3/6/2

120 to 1 Tom's Tips

Race 9

#3 – Fearless – this is an interesting 5-year-old gelding who has raced 7 times and won 4 times including his last race at Gulfstream. Irad Ortiz, Jr has ridden this horse twice and won both times on him. Has Todd Pletcher finally figured out how to keep this horse sounded? Did he need time to fully mature? Maybe this is his breakout year?

#2 – Express Train – his last 3 races have been against top class horses and he battled in all these races. His last work of 1:11.40 at 6 furlongs tells me he is in shape for this race. Will he like the surface for his first start outside California?

#5 – Guest Suite – not a great trip 2 races back but he won the next race with a strong move outside of horse to get up in time.

Race 10

#5 – Seven Nation Army – With Irad Ortiz, Jr in town, his agent booked him some rides with trainer Ron Moquett. A positive move with the Moquett's speed horse, Firecrow in the race. Does this setup the race for Seven Nation Army? Firecrow was on the lead and gave away in this last race to set up Whitmore but CZ Rocket won.  Seven Nation Army has generally worked evenly since his last race, but this beaten favorite last time out will get there in time today. Better start will help too.

#4 – Welder – hard to knock a horse who has run 38 times and won 26 races making over 1 million dollars (Oklahoma Bred). Has the speed to battle to the end.

#7 – Engage will be the one to beat, he drops in class to find a win and he will be an overbet favorite in this race. Will he pick up a piece of this race? His last 2 races were ok, but he had traffic problems in one (against a lesser field of horses than this race) and overmatched in the other. I will put him in the trifecta but...

Race 11

#6 – Monomoy Girl – she's lost twice and one via disqualification. She had a wide trip last time out and won with style. She has been based at Oaklawn all winter and Brad Cox didn't move her with the shutdown at Oaklawn due to bad weather. She doesn't win by wide margins, but she wins.

#2 – Swiss Skydiver – she's had one really bad race and that was in the Breeder's Cup Distaff (won by Monomoy Girl). Her tune up race was very classy in the Beholder Mile grade 1 and should like the surface. She faced the boys and beat the 2020 horse of the year and Breeders Cup Classic winner, Authentic.

#5 – Getridofwhatailesu will be moving late to get up and pass tiring horses. She appears to be getting better with each start but against the top 2, it's a tall order for her to win.

Rich's Rankings

Race 9

4 - Warrior's Charge – could be lone speed at track where speed wins.

2 - Express Train – California invader with better fractions last out.

6 – Owendale – class is there, but memory of winners' circle is not.

1 - Silver State – winner of 4 straight, but numbers are mid-pack across the board.

Race 10

5 – Seven Nation Army – can run 6 furlongs under 1:10, not sure others can in current form

4 – Welder – high win rate, speed... worried about track upgrade, struggled in only other OP run.

1 – Firecrow – cool name, fast horse dropping in class in third start off the bench.

3 – Town Champ – was claimed last out and is making start #1 for Norman McKnight – 27% angle.

Race 11

3 – Letruska – can run 1 1/16 miles as fast as the favorites, but she'll be in front of them

6 - Monomoy Girl – a neck and DQ from being 16 for 16

2 - Swiss Skydiver – how tough are the top two that she's third?

5 – Getridofwhatailesu – is better than the other two remaining.

 

Get today's full picks for all tracks and races at Guaranteed Tip Sheet.