Terry "Hollywood" Hay's Handicapping
- Silver State is trained by Steven Asmussen and ridden by Santana. He is going
for a fifth win in a row. He is two for two at Oaklawn.
- Owendale can lead or come from behind which is a good angle. He is trained by
Brad Cox and Geroux returns to ride him again.
– Warriors Charge is another Brad Cox trained entry that ran second beaten only
a head in his last race. He has a bullet work on April 11th in preparation for
– Fearless is trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Irad Ortiz. He has won
over 57% of his races.
- Welder has accumulated 1.2 million in earnings. He is going for his fifth win
in a row and can either lead or come from close to the pace.
- Engage is a Grade 2 winner, trained by Steven Asmussen and ridden by Santana.
He has the best lifetime Beyer number of 104 in the race.
- Seven Nation Army broke last in his last race and if he gets a better break
this time he can be right there at the end.
- Monomoy Girl hasn't lost a race in over two years and I don't see her losing
here. She has won fourteen races out of sixteen starts running second the other
two times, winning but being disqualified from one of those races. She just
does not know how to lose!
- Letruska has won two of three of her last starts in graded stakes races. She
could be the fly in the ointment and wire the field.
– Getridofwhatailesu other than Monomoy Girl this mare has the best in the
money percentage of the field She has steadily been improving her Beyer numbers
by leaps and bounds the last four races.
Race #9 – 1-3-4-6
Race #10 – 4-5-6
Race #11 – 6
Race #12 – All
11-$10.00 Exacta #6 with #3 & #5
11-$7.00 Trifecta #6 with #3 & #5
Swiss Army's Shawn's Selections
Warrior's Charge – He should get the lead out of the gate rather easily and not
have much pressure. This is his 2nd start after a 6 month layoff. Last
race was good despite losing by a half a length considering the time off
between races. This horse has finished in the trifecta in all 7 of his starts
at Oaklawn winning 3 of them. The fact it is a special day of racing and the
track will be souped up will be to his advantage.
Silver State –Has won 4 straight races and should be close to the pace here. 2
for 2 at Oaklawn and has won 5 of 8 on a fast dirt track. Top notch connections
Express Train- Should be close to the pace. Is 1 for 1 at this distance and has
been in the exacta 6 of 7 times on a fast dirt track. Has the 2 highest beyer's
in this field which were his last 2 starts. They both came at Santa Anita.
$20 win #4 $1 ex 1,4/1,2,4,6,8 $5 pick 3 1,3,4/4,5/6
Welder- The class of the field by far winning 26 of 38 lifetime starts. He has
been off for 4 months since he has raced but has done fine in the past with a
layoff. Has speed but I would expect him to sit off of 2 or 3 horses who will
be flying to try and get that lead.
Seven Nation Army- Should be another one that gets a great trip right behind
the leaders. Gets jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. for the first time. Making his 3 start
off a 3 month layoff and has done well at Oaklawn finishing in the exacta in 6
of 11 starts.
Hot Shot Kid – Will be another one that could get a nice trip here. If you take
his dirt starts out, he has won almost half his starts 14 of 30 with another 7
runner up finishes. Concerned about the 7 month layoff as he doesn't always do
well coming back from a long layoff. I couldn't find anybody else that would be
this price to use so I'm using him in exotics.
$2 Tri 4/5/All $2 Ex 4/1,6,8
Monomoy Girl- The obvious choice and class of the field. She is a neck and a
disqualification from being 16 for 16 lifetime. You will not get even money,
probably more like 1/5 or 2/5.
Latruska – This horse will be your early leader, so I give her the best shot to
upset Monomoy girl. Also gets Irad Ortiz Jr. for the first time.
Swiss Skydiver – Very nice horse but not in Monomoy Girl's league in my
opinion. She should finish in the exacta or Tri.
$20 ex 6/3 $2 Tri 3/6/2
120 to 1 Tom's Tips
– Fearless – this is an interesting 5-year-old gelding who has raced 7 times
and won 4 times including his last race at Gulfstream. Irad Ortiz, Jr has
ridden this horse twice and won both times on him. Has Todd Pletcher finally
figured out how to keep this horse sounded? Did he need time to fully mature?
Maybe this is his breakout year?
– Express Train – his last 3 races have been against top class horses and he
battled in all these races. His last work of 1:11.40 at 6 furlongs tells me he
is in shape for this race. Will he like the surface for his first start outside
– Guest Suite – not a great trip 2 races back but he won the next race with a
strong move outside of horse to get up in time.
– Seven Nation Army – With Irad Ortiz, Jr in town, his agent booked him some
rides with trainer Ron Moquett. A positive move with the Moquett's speed horse,
Firecrow in the race. Does this setup the race for Seven Nation Army? Firecrow
was on the lead and gave away in this last race to set up Whitmore but CZ
Rocket won. Seven Nation Army has generally worked evenly since his last
race, but this beaten favorite last time out will get there in time today. Better
start will help too.
– Welder – hard to knock a horse who has run 38 times and won 26 races making
over 1 million dollars (Oklahoma Bred). Has the speed to battle to the end.
– Engage will be the one to beat, he drops in class to find a win and he will be
an overbet favorite in this race. Will he pick up a piece of this race? His
last 2 races were ok, but he had traffic problems in one (against a lesser
field of horses than this race) and overmatched in the other. I will put him in
the trifecta but...
– Monomoy Girl – she's lost twice and one via disqualification. She had a wide
trip last time out and won with style. She has been based at Oaklawn all winter
and Brad Cox didn't move her with the shutdown at Oaklawn due to bad weather.
She doesn't win by wide margins, but she wins.
– Swiss Skydiver – she's had one really bad race and that was in the Breeder's
Cup Distaff (won by Monomoy Girl). Her tune up race was very classy in the
Beholder Mile grade 1 and should like the surface. She faced the boys and beat
the 2020 horse of the year and Breeders Cup Classic winner, Authentic.
– Getridofwhatailesu will be moving late to get up and pass tiring horses. She
appears to be getting better with each start but against the top 2, it's a tall
order for her to win.
- Warrior's Charge – could be lone speed at track where speed wins.
- Express Train – California invader with better fractions last out.
– Owendale – class is there, but memory of winners' circle is not.
- Silver State – winner of 4 straight, but numbers are mid-pack across the
– Seven Nation Army – can run 6 furlongs under 1:10, not sure others can in
– Welder – high win rate, speed... worried about track upgrade, struggled in only
other OP run.
– Firecrow – cool name, fast horse dropping in class in third start off the
– Town Champ – was claimed last out and is making start #1 for Norman McKnight
– 27% angle.
– Letruska – can run 1 1/16 miles as fast as the favorites, but she'll be in
front of them
- Monomoy Girl – a neck and DQ from being 16 for 16
- Swiss Skydiver – how tough are the top two that she's third?
– Getridofwhatailesu – is better than the other two remaining.