SUPER STOCK, the Steve Asmussen trainee, takes center stage in our Derby Profile spotlight. He is currently ranked 3rd on the Derby Leaderboard with 109 points, with nearly all of his points coming from his Arkansas Derby (G1) victory. In this discussion, we'll review what he's done, how he's doing, and what are his chances of winning the Run for the Roses, which is now less than three weeks away. HorseRacingNation assigned him odds of 30-1, but we shall explore evidence that suggests he shouldn't be that long of a shot.
SUPER STOCK established his prominence among his fellow three-year-olds after he won the Arkansas Derby on April 10th. He was 11-1 when he defeated the talented pair of CADDO RIVER and CONCERT TOUR. He took a tracking trip for Ricardo Santana Jr., allowing the pacesetters CADDO RIVER and CONCERT TOUR to duel each other on the front end. It paid off. Turning for home, the frontrunners were shortening stride. They went 46.4 for the half-mile and suffered the after-effects. On the other hand, SUPER STOCK was patiently reserved about two lengths off the lead, before angling to the outside and mowing them all down for the win.
SUPER STOCK earned a 106 Equibase Speed Figure for that victory, the highest he'd ever achieved in his career. The replay is shown below.
On paper, SUPER STOCK fits the billing of a Kentucky Derby win contender. His speed figures nearly match the requirements, though he still needs to take a step forward due to the new, deeper talent he'll face.
But the paper doesn't reveal the convenient setup he enjoyed in the Arkansas Derby — where he had plenty of breathing space in front of him, making it quite easy to move forward once he was ready. This isn't guaranteed in the Kentucky Derby, where he might have to rate closely behind horses, and maneuver around without losing momentum. To SUPER STOCK's credit, however, he had a horrible trip in the Rebel Stakes yet his interest did not waver! And he finished with good energy despite running fourth.
A positive point for SUPER STOCK is that he's already routed twice at Churchill Downs, both times hitting the board. He gets another point for his bout with KING FURY, who recently captured the Lexington Stakes impressively. SUPER STOCK means business and knows he is a race horse, having hit the board 6 times out of 8 starts.
To top if off, when he runs in the Derby, he'll be making just his third start off his four amonth layoff. He'll have more energy, especially since he wasn't fully extended on his come-back race in the Rebel Stakes. We're dealing with a relatively fresh horse with routing foundation to him. If SUPER STOCK takes another step forward, he'll be a dangerous player. Plus he's got a great pilot in Ricardo Santana Jr. to guide him home.
How does SUPER STOCK handle the ten furlong distance in the Kentucky Derby? Well, his pedigree suggests he'll be effective at ten furlongs. His sire DIALED IN may have ran eighth in the Kentucky Derby, but made up for it in the Preakness Stakes where he finished fourth going longer.
DIALED IN produced GUNNEVERA, who ran second in the Breeder's Cup Classic, and third in the Dubai World Cup, both run at ten furlongs on the world stage. What if DIALED IN passed the same endurance to SUPER STOCK?
If we go a generation higher, we find the presence of SUPER STOCK's grandsire, MINESHAFT, who was brilliant at ten furlongs, and higher still, A.P. INDY, who had the endurance to win the twelve furlong Belmont Stakes.
Did you know GET HER NUMBER is also sired by DIALED IN? It's true — and he looks like he's benefitting from the MINESHAFT and A.P. INDY bloodline. If we watch his Arkansas Derby effort, GET HER NUMBER looks like he'd welcome the classic distance just fine. He finished with great interest, despite being interfered with several times earlier in the race, and was running with SUPER STOCK to the wire.
In preparation for the Derby, SUPER STOCK has been training at Oaklawn Park. He just worked four furlongs on April 5th, going 50.80, the 10th fastest of 18 works at that distance. One week prior, he fired a five furlong bullet, going 1:00.20, the fastest of 16 works at that distance.
SUPER STOCK seems fit and ready for a big effort. He'll provide great value at the betting windows, considering he's to be piloted by Steve Asmussen's "go to guy", Ricardo Santana Jr.. Due to their high percentage team work — Asmussen and Santanta — it is unlikely SUPER STOCK's 30-1 will hold up. We might even see him dip below 20-1, provided his post position draw isn't so bad.