In this Derby Profile edition, we narrow our focus to the Todd Pletcher-trained BOURBONIC. He is the son of BERNARDINI out of DANCING AFLEET by AFLEET ALEX. He ranks 7th on the Derby Leaderboard with 100 points, and according to experts, he's a 30-1 longshot to win the Kentucky Derby. We shall discuss BOURBONIC's progress, preparation, and chances of winning the Run for the Roses.
First of all, all 100 of BOURBONIC's qualifying points came from his Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) victory last month at Aqueduct. The replay is shown below.
He broke characteristically slow out of the gate, taking his position toward the back of the field. They crawled through the half mile, going 50.18! Moreover, BOURBONIC trailed by more than fifteen lengths before unleashing his rally and ultimately mowing the entire field down. He defeated DYNAMIC ONE, CROWDED TRADE, WEYBURN, PREVALANCE, BROOKLYN STRONG, RISK TAKING, CANDYMAN ROCKET, and MARKET MAVEN — while at odds of 72-1. Perhaps we can excuse the rather slow final time of 1:50 and four-fifths seconds due to the nature of Aqueduct's exhausting track.
On paper, the Wood Memorial was a highly competitive race — equivalent in rating to the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, and Santa Anita Derby. But out of all the Wood Memorial contestants, BROOKLYN STRONG, DYNAMIC ONE, and BOURBONIC are the only ones returning for the Kentucky Derby.
If there's a hot pace in the Kentucky Derby, look out for BOURBONIC because he holds the highest late speed rating out of all his rivals — save for stablemate KNOWN AGENDA, who earned a higher speed figure in his Florida Derby victory.
A positive for BOURBONIC's versatility is that he showed willingness to be up near the pace. If we watch his Allowance Optional Claiming 50K race back in January, he was only one length off the leader, who set fractions of 23.8 and 48.2 for a one mile contest.
Another a positive point: that Kendrick Carmouch and Todd Pletcher are a hot team together, approaching the Derby winning at a 28% Jockey-Trainer win rate, based on the previous two months.
BOURBONIC is sired by Preakness winner BERNARDINI. His dam is DANCING AFLEET by Preakness winner AFLEET ALEX. If two Preakness winners in his family tree weren't enough, then we can go generation higher and see his grandsire is A.P. INDY, the winner of the Belmont Stakes. Triple Crown competitiveness is in BOURBONIC's blood. The mile and a quarter distance shouldn't be a problem, and he should welcome the longer distances moving forward.
Also note, that BERNARDINI sired STAY THIRSTY, who performed well enough in his three-year-old campaign to capture the ten furlong Travers Stakes (G1).
In preparation for the Kentucky Derby, BOURBONIC turned in a 4F workout on April 23rd at Churchill Downs, going 49.60 as the 71st fastest of 108 works at that distance. He recorded the same time the week prior, over the same distance and track. But before we think it wasn't an impressive work, we should note that BOURBONIC doesn't normally record bullets. Matter of fact he hasn't recorded a single one, yet it did not stop him from running big on stakes day.
At 30-1, BOURBONIC provides bettors tremendous value and has enough positives going for him to run big in the Kentucky Derby. Watch his latest workout below.