#8 Get the Prize and Tap It to Win will go to the front. #2 Mind Control
and #3 Basin will stay close to the pace and try to catch the leaders down the
stretch. #9 Whitmore will be mid pack and will catch the leaders at the end.
#9 - Whitmore – Is a Grade 1 winning horse and runs like a
3-year-old not an 8-year-old. He had a bullet workout at 4f-48B best of 26.
#3 – Basin won his first race back after a six-month layoff.
He loves the distance and has Ortiz in the irons.
#2 – Mind Control has the best Beyer number in the race and
has finished 73% of the time in the money in his races.
#5 – Tap It To Win just keeps improving each race and still
won his last race despite being bumped.
Race scenario: #7 Smooth Like Straight will
rush to the lead and try to go all the way. # 3 Colonel Liam will stay close to
the pace and close at the end along with #5 Domestic Spending and # 6 Digital
Age. # 3 Colonel Liam will outrun the closers and win the race.
#3 – Colonel Liam is going for his fourth win in a row and
will be flying at the end. He is trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Ortiz.
#5 – Domestic Spending has won four out of five races in his
career only losing one when he got a bad break at the start. He loves to come
from deep and win by small margins.
#7 – Smooth Like Straight has plenty of speed and just
missed winning a Grade1 last time out. He always seems to be in the mix.
#6 – Digital Age is 2 for 2 at Churchill but has been off
since November when he ran a disappointing race after lunging at the start. He
is trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Castellano and has been working well for
#14 Essential Quality will either go to the front or stay close to the
pace depending on what the leaders do and the kind of pace that is set. He will
take the lead close to the finish. #15-Rock Your World will stay close to the
leaders with Essential Quality and make a move right along with him. #10-
Midnight Bourbon will try to lead all the way but will be pressured by #5 -
Sainthood and #8 Medina Spirt. #9-Hot Rod Charlie will close from far back to
try and win.
#14 - Essential Quality – What can I say he has won all five
of his races and accumulated $2,265,144.00. He seems to be a horse who never,
ever gets tired. Had a couple of tune-up works for KD.
#15 – Rock Your World won the Grade1 Santa Anita Derby. He
is perfect in his career so far.
#10 – Midnight Bourbon has finished 100% of the rime in the
money and gets a jockey change to Mike Smith.
#9 – Hot Rod Charlie can either run on top or close from
behind. He won the LA Derby despite being bumped at the start.
Winning Horse: Essential Quality
Pick to Fade: Soup and Sandwich
Longshot: Midnight Bourbon
Play: Pick 4-Cost: $108.00
Race 9: 1, 2, 3, 4,
5, 6, 9, 13, 14
Race 10: 3, 9
Race 11: 3, 5, 6, 7
Race 12: 10, 14, 15
Race Summary: I see a couple longshots here
going to the lead #8 Get the Prize, #10 Bango, and #12 Endorsed. Some logical
contenders in here will stalk these three horses. #2 Mind Control, #3 Basin,
and #4 Flagstaff. All this will set the
race up for Whitmore to go by and win this race.
#9 Whitmore- He will show up Saturday look around and see
that CZ Rocket is not in this race. His
last 2 efforts where he lost to CZ Rocket will be good enough here. His main
contender ML favorite # Flagstaff is a horse Whitmore has finished ahead of
multiple times before.
#3 Basin – Will get a nice trip behind the speed. He has
been in the exacta in 4 of 5 fast dirt starts. Is 2 for 2 at the distance of 7
furlongs. Has done really well when Jose Ortiz has been aboard winning 2 of 3
and second in the other one. 2nd start after a 7 month layoff he came back from
the layoff and won the last race.
#4 Flagstaff – If he doesn't win this race, he will
definitely be in the exotics. He's been in the tri 15 of 17 races on a fast
dirt track. He should be stalking the leaders and get a nice trip. He hasn't
fared well against Whitmore.
$20 win #9
$1 Exbox 3,4,9
Race Summary: I don't see many horses in here
you want the lead. There are a lot of closers.
I thought pace set up really well for the #7 Smooth Like Strait who
should get the early lead with maybe the #1 Masteroffoxhounds and #8 Cross
Border stalking. The #4 Ivar has also been close to the pace before as well.
The rest will be closing. I think the #7
steals it from the beginning holding off a closing #3 Colonel Liam.
#7 Smooth Like Strait- Pace favors this horse as I think he
gets the lead easily and will keep going from there. This horse has won half of
his turf starts 6 of 12 finishing 2nd in another 3 of those races. He is a head
and a neck from winning 4 races in a row.
#3 Colonel Liam – Will be going for his 4th straight win. He
has won 4 of his 5 career turf starts. Hasn't lost with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard
winning all 4 times. If it wasn't for the pace advantage for the #7 I would
definitely be playing this horse on top.
#5 Domestic Spending- Has won 4 of his 5 career starts which
all have been on the turf. He gets a new rider today as Irad stays on the #3
over this horse. Flavian Prat is an exceptional turf rider. I don't think he
gets enough pace to run at to win but definitely use in all exotics.
$20 win #7
$2 EX 3,7/3,5,7
Race Summary: I think this is going to be a
quicker pace then what is being projected. I think you got 3 horses that are
definitely trying to go to the front. #8 Medina Spirit #10 Midnight Bourbon, 15
Rock Your World, and #19 Soup and Sandwich. Then I think you have the next line
#7 Mandaloun, #9 Hot Rod Charlie, #14 Essential Quality, and #17 Highly
Pick to win #17 Highly Motivated – He was the pick I gave
out in November on the podcast for the future pool. I said he just keeps
getting better and nothing has changed my mind especially after almost
upsetting #14 Essential Quality last race. I think he will sit just off the
pace with that 2nd group and should get a nice trip from the #17 post.
Longshot #6 O BESOS – I was impressed with replays how he
was closing ground in the last 2 races when no one else was. First 3 starts were off slow every time. Last
two closing ground but going way wide. If he can work out a trip, then I feel
like he is very live here.
#14 Essential Quality – 5 for 5 and the deserving
favorite. Just beat Highly Motivated in
a great battle so if I like one got to like the other. Highly Motivated is just
better value and the better play to me.
Pick to Fade – #15 Rock your World- Seems to be the popular
choice from the public and the hot horse. Anytime the public goes one way you
should go the other. I also don't think
he's going to get the pace to his advantage as many people think. He could be a
better turf horse as well as his only dirt start was his last. I would also say
his jockey Umberto Rispoli is better on the turf then dirt.
$ 16 win #17
$1 exbox 6,14,17
$1tri box 1,6,14,17
22 to 1
Race 10 – Churchill Downs Stakes
3 – Basin – He's 2 for 2 at the distance. He has raced at
Churchill (a maiden race and lost by a neck to a future stakes winner). Basin
won last time out at 7 furlongs. He's tried longer races without success with
top company. The move to Pletcher in August of 2020 and then he finished 2nd in
the muddy at Saratoga. Last race was coming a layoff and he won. Is Basin
really a miler or shorter distance horse? I think so.
10 – Bango – ran at Keeneland last out and did ok 4th. I
think he needed a race. His record at Churchill is 6 starts 4 wins 1 place 1
show so I must put him in the money.
13 – Lexitonian – showed speed in last then dropped back and
finished 4th in his last race. This was his first start after layoff, he should
improve with a race in hand.
Race 11 – Turf Classic
7 – Smooth Like Strait – with a record of 12 turf starts
with 6 wins 3 places 1 show, he hasn't finished worse than 4th in all his
races. Favorite in his last race and looked sharp but was beaten by a neck.
He's run this distance before. If he can get to the lead about halfway in the
race, he will finish fast and strong.
9 – Ride a Comet – has run this distance once and won. He
will be coming from the back to finish strong.
3 – Colonel Liam – will be the favorite in the race and
should be. He's lost once on the turf but has looked great in all his winning
efforts. Coming late and fast.
Race 12 – Kentucky Derby
Race Analysis: Let's start by looking at the
breeding of some of the horses to see who should be able to handle the classic
distance of 1 mile and a quarter. Know Agenda and King Fury are by Curlin and
his runners have done well overall. Curlin's runners have placed first or
second in all the classic races including: Palace Malice (Belmont winner),
Exaggerator (Preakness winner) and second place finisher Good Magic who lost to
Justify (Triple Crown winner) in the Kentucky Derby.
Essential Quality is by Tapit and he's offspring like the
classic distances but have only the Belmont Stakes doing this 3 times.
The only sire has produced a Kentucky Derby winner, Into
Mischief with last year's winner Authentic.
Based on the rankings of Sire/Dam, the top five are: Known
Agenda, King Fury, Essential Quality, Dynamic One and Midnight Bourbon.
There are 7 sires represented in the race with only 2 or 3
crops of racehorses. Maybe the winner will come from one of these sires?
Now let's look at post positions based on the running of the
Kentucky Derby run on a fast track over the past 10 years. The current weather
forecast on Saturday is clear skies and 70's. Fast track and firm turf course.
2020 – winning Post #15
2016 – winning Post #13
2015 – winning Post #15
2014 – winning Post #5
2012 – winning Post #19
So, should you have a focus to outside horses? You decide.
In the running of the race, with 20 horses going a distance
now have travelled before, it's always an interesting beginning. Hot Rod
Charlie, Helium, Highly Motivated and Soup and Sandwich will be gunning for the
lead. Hot Rod Charlie should be able to get the lead as they approach the first
turn. As they head for the first turn, Known Agenda and Like the King will try
to establish themselves from inside posts while Sainthood, Mandaloun, Medina
Spirit will look to get cover. The outside horse caught wide will be Dynamic
One, Hidden Stash, Essential Quality, Rock Your World and King Fury but that's
ok. The rest of the field will get their share of bumping and being check
heading to the first turn.
The on the backside, the leaders will be pressing each
other, with some a little wide and Sainthood, Mandaloun, Essential Quality,
Like the King and Hidden Stash will be moving up for better position heading to
the turn. The others will be shuffled back.
Turning for home, the front runners will be backing up with
only Highly Motivated still in the fight. Coming on quickly will be Known
Agenda, Essential Quality, Sainthood, Rock Your World, Mandaloun and O Besos.
Who do I pick?
7 – Mandaloun after a career best race in the Risen Star, he
runs a clunker in the Louisiana Derby. He was wide throughout the race and was
never in it. I tossed the last race out. Why did I do this? Because of his
works since last race. One maintenance work on 4/3 then a bullet work over the
Churchill track on 4/10 going 5 furlongs at :58.4 breezing. His next work was 6
furlongs in 1:11.2 breezing on 4/17 at Churchill and his last workout of 1:00
breezing on 4/24 also at Churchill. This is indicating to me he is ready to put
in a good performance. Mandaloun has won over the Churchill track and Florent
Geroux has ridden this horse in all his races. His breeding is by Into Mischief
and the dam is a stakes winner at grade 2 level and her sire is Empire Maker
(Belmont stakes winner).
5 – Sainthood – with Life is Good on the mend, this is the
second stringer for China Horse & Winstar. With only 3 races, he raced
greenly in his first race then ran a front running win in his maiden, which he
drifted out (still learning). His last race was in the Turfway Park was the
grade 3 JR Steaks and he finished second. He started to move on the turn and
was blocked and between horses at the top of the straight. This Todd Pletcher
trained son of Mshawish looks like a bargain at $62k and Pletcher has a in the
money percentage of 60% with horses moving from the all-weather surface to
dirt. Using a local jockey in Corey Lanerie make sense when running an
inexperienced horse at Churchill in the big race.
6 – O Besos is a dead closer and will be flying at the end.
Up for place or show.
1 – Known Agenda – the starting gate position #1 is a killer
for me and the last horse to win from the post one was in 1986. The Florida
Derby winners have won 24 times in the Kentucky Derby. I like him but that
15 – Rock Your World – the move from turf to paid off in the
Santa Anita Derby. Now can he win the Derby? Distance isn't an issue, and the
outside post may help. With a good trip, you never know what may happen.
Favorable post position.
Winner – Mandaloun
Fader – Hot Rod Charlie
Longshot – Sainthood
Future $5,000 claimer – Hidden Stash (most likely to
win the race now)
#4 – Flagstaff 3-1
#2 – Mind Control 6-1
#9 – Whitmore 7/2
#1 – Phat Man 12-1
#7 – Smooth Like Strait 4-1
#3 – Colonel Liam 3-1
#5 – Domestic Spending 9/2
#6 – Digital Age 8-1
Winner: Rock Your World
Fade: Hot Rod Charlie
Longshot: Soup and Sandwich