There is just one stakes race the day after the Kentucky
Derby, the Grade II, Ruffian Stakes at Belmont Park. A group of six fillies and
mare will run 1 mile on the main track for their share of the $200,000 in prize
The one turn mile at Belmont has favored horses that are in
the first three at the quarter mile marker on a track labeled as fast. The
average 1 mile winner at Belmont is third at the quarter and the half and then
starts to make the move forward. The inside three post positions also appear to
have an edge.
Tactical speed, preferably with an inside draw, is the most
common way to win a Belmont 1 mile run on the main course.
VAULT (PP: 1 ML 6-1) doesn't fit the average winner
description as she's one that like to come from the back of the pack. She's
normally 3 to 4 lengths behind the frontrunner and doesn't rev the engines
before running a half mile. Her late pace numbers are strong enough to get home
provided she doesn't fallback too much early.
WATER WHITE (PP: 2 ML 5-1) appears to be in the process of
changing running styles. Previously, she was a stalker. One that would sit
behind the pace and look to pounce as the leader tired. Recently, she's been
moving forward and ran third at the first call in her last two starts. In her
last, she was third at the quarter and took over for good after that, winning
at 1 mile on Aqueduct slop.
OUR SUPER FREAK (PP: 3 ML 8/5) best fits the profile for the
horse wearing a one, tow or three. The five-year-old mare has been second or
third early on in eight of her last 10 outings, managing to win two. Although,
it's been more than a year since the daughter of MINESHAFT and THATCHER was
stopped for a photo in the winners' circle.
The morning line favorite, LAKE AVENUE (PP: 4 ML 7/5) ran
the highest, last race speed figure in a race where she was fourth at the
quarter and second at the half. The four-year-old filly ran away from the field
of eight from there, pounding the competition by 6 ¾ lengths. Trainer Bill Mott
has recently had her run as a stalker/closer in her last five starts after
being a front runner in her first four races.
SAGUARO ROW (PP: 5 ML 15-1) has been a closer most of the
time but has sprinkled in a few stalking trips in her last 10 runs. Based on
the running styles of the other five horses here, jockey Trevor McCarthy will
likely find himself no better than fourth after the first 4 furlongs.
GIBBERISH (PP: 6 ML 8-1) is the dragster of the bunch. Her
past performance lines are littered with 1s and 2s in four of her last five
efforts. Her early pace figures and fractions suggest she'll get the jump on
this field as well and will try to lead them from gate to wire.
Here is how our friends at Guaranteed Tip Sheet see the race
playing out in their Pro Subscribers Bonus Commentary.
LAKE AVENUE won her last with the highest, last race
speed figure by a wide margin. WATER WHITE has a second and third in two at
Belmont and three wins, a second and third in five at the distance. OUR SUPER
FREAK has never missed at the distance with a win, two seconds and a third.
GIBBERISH is four for four at the distance and no wins at any other distance in
Get today's full picks for all tracks and races on our Premium Picks Page.