Let's see if we can celebrate Mother's Day with a winning
ticket in the Fran's Valentine Stakes for all the mom horseplayers. Six fillies
and mares will take it two turns on Santa Anita's grass course for the hardware
and their share of $100,000 in prize money.
Meet to date, there have been 96 races at the
distance/surface with horses described as early speed heading into the winners'
circle 59 times with 21 going wire to wire. Post draw seems to play a part in
the outcome as well with winning rates dropping from the inside out. Running
along the rail hits at 18% and hit rates slide from there.
Inside speed is the profile of winner for 1 mile, Santa
Anita turf races.
LEGGS GALORE (PP: 1 ML 4-1) get to wear the red number 1 and
has plenty of early giddy up. She and LOFTY (PP: 3 ML 6-1) have the most past
performance 1s and 2s at the first and second calls, along with the top early
and mid-pace figures.
This will be the first time LEGGS GALORE tries to run past 6
furlongs and, sometimes, sprinters speed doesn't translate to route race (1
mile or more) speed. LOFTY is an example as she tried to race 1 mile once
before and got out of the gates fourth of seven. Since, she was no worse than
second by after a quarter and half mile in her last six outings.
It should be a drag race out of the gates between the two as
both run similar early times for a quarter and half-mile. We give LEGGS GALORE
the slight advantage as she's on the inside and should be able to make it to
the turn first.
On dirt, KRISTI'S TIGER usually tries to ride shotgun to the
early leader. However, in her pair of grass goes, she's lagged way behind at
the jump. In her last race, she was tenth of 10 at the first call and ninth of
10 in her prior turf outings. She did rally hare in her last to her the win at
6 ½ furlongs in her lone trip on Santa Anita's grass course.
BELLA VITA (PP: 4 ML 5-1) has flashed speed in the past when
racing on turf, be it in sprints or in her only route run, a third-place finish
and 1 mile. She faded in the final stride in the $75,000 China Doll Stakes,
losing by a length to. WARREN'S SHOWTIME (PP: 5 ML 6/5). In the last few races, BELLA VITA has settled
in right behind the frontrunners and that's where we expect jockey Juan
Hernandez to have his horse today.
Morning line favorite, WARREN'S SHOWTIME and PULPIT RIDER
(PP: 6 ML 7/2) are likely to share company at the back of the pack. Both tend
to start slow and build momentum throughout the race. WARREN'S SHOWTIME has the
better mid and late race statistics and more often than not should be the
faster of the two in the later stages of the race.
How do they line up at the wire? Here is how our friends at
Guaranteed Tip Sheet see in their Pro Subscribers' Commentary.
"LEGGS GALORE has won three of four at Santa Anita and five
of six on turf, all sorts of excuses in lone miss. WARREN'S SHOWTIME has four
wins and five thirds in nine Santa Anita races. KRISTI'S TIGER can win from the
front or back, dangerously versatile. BELLA VITA has never missed the board in
four Santa Anita grass goes."
Happy Mother's Day moms. Hopefully, we've added a winning
ticket to your roses, chocolates and cards of appreciation.
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