Tom and Tom Racing @TomandTomRacing joins the crew for their first, live YouTube show https://youtu.be/8RCh1c93i80. They celebrate the occasion by making their selections for the late Pick 5 at Churchill Downs. Not much could be better than Saturday Night Live (as Rich kept mistakenly calling it) horse racing and a chance at a fat Pick 5 payout.Tom from Tom and Tom, Shawn, Terry, our 22 to 1 Tom and Rich agree on some picks, have a possible single (Rich tries to explain why you want to beat the single ), and of course some long shots.It's a great way to prepare for Churchill Downs racing under the lights.
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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks
The Player's Edge Crew and Guest Tom and Tom Racing Pick
Churchill Downs Late Pick 5 Selections
"Hollywood" Hay's Handicap
At the break #2 Bahama Mischief and #10 Princess Lea will go to the
front. #7 Kizzy B and #3 Shoshoni will stay close to the pace and try to catch
the leaders down the stretch. I think #7 Kizzy B or #3 Shoshoni will be able to
will catch the leaders at the finish line.
#7- Kizzy B likes the distance finishing in the money 80% of
time. She bobbled at the start of her last race and went four wide in the turns
and ran a good 3rd. She is ready to graduate today.
#3 – Shoshoni Moon was bumped in her last race and lost all
chance. She has five bullet works in a row and with the increase in distance of
today's race will suit her well.
#6 – Bold Tactics has finished in the money in both of her
career races. She closed nicely in both of those races and can be a factor
#5 – Seaside Retreat has earned the best per race average of
money of all the starters. She has the highest Beyer and has been very
competitive in her races.
Race scenario: #10 Big Dreaming & #1 Dream
Maker will go to the lead and try to go all the way. # 4 Empty Tomb will be in
mid pack and close at the end. I think #6 Thirstforlife will close from deep
and win the race.
#6 – Thirstforlife performs well at today's distance
finishing in the money nine out of twelve races. He finished a fast closing
second in his first race since taking a three-month break. He should improve in
#10 – Big Dreaming had his worse finish in a race in his
career as he fought being restrained which compromised his chances. He has had
a bullet work (1/14) in preparation for this race.
#1 – Dream Maker has dropped back down in the class that he
can compete at. Mark Casse is the trainer and Geroux is in the irons.
#4 – Empty Tomb has been the bridesmaid three out of the
last four races this year He always seems to be in the mix and should be used
in the exotics.
Race scenario: #10 Dalika will go to the front
and try to lead all the way. #8- Delta's Kingdom will run in mid pack and will
move to try and win coming into the stretch. #4- Temple City, #5 Pass the Plate
and #9 Cambeliza will close from deep with a rush to win. #5 Pass the Plate
will be the successful one.
#5 – Pass the Plate has shown that he can complete at one
mile and a half. He moves down in class after competing in a Grade 3 race which
will help him win the race.
#8 - Delta's Kingdom has finished in the money 100% of the
time at today's distance. He is a deep closer which fits well at one mile and a
#4 – Temple City Terror ran a fast-closing 3rd in his last
race at a mile and a sixteenth.
Stretching out to a one mile and a half should be a benefit to him.
#9 – Cambeliza takes a class drop and, in the past has
finished first and, in the money, at large odds. Today race can be one of those
#4 Incorrigible break out of the gate to get the lead. #1- Incorrigible
will try to go with #4 Incorrigible and set a furious pace. #2-Aloha West will
stay back during most of the race and close with a rush to win!
#2 – Aloha West has had only one bad finish and had an
excuse as he was badly pinched back at the start. He only lost by a nose last
time out and will finish first in today's contest.
#4 – Incorrigible is a speedster who will go to front and
try and lead all the way. He only lost by a neck in his last contest and should
improve this race.
#1 – Calibrate has been running in Grade 1 races, including
the BC Juvenile Cup. Today's entries are a much easier group to run against
which will help his chances.
Race scenario: #6 Catholic Guilt' #7 Casanova
Kitten and #8 Chantry Flats will go to the front. #3- Summer Palace will run in
mid pack and will move coming into the stretch. #10 Exult will close from deep
and try to win but #3- Summer Palace will deny him by winning the contest.
#3 – Summer Palace has finished in the money eight out of
nine career races. He missed by the neck in his last race after having to alter
his path. A clean trip will help his chances in this race.
#8 – Chantry Flats has won 50% of his races this year and
has won 19% of his career races. He is perfect at CD winning the only race he
was competed in.
#7 – Casanova Kitten broke through the gate in his last
start and then ran 5th losing by two lengths. He can run on top or close from
behind which is a great characteristic to have and will benefit him in this
#10 – Exult had
trouble in his last race getting bumped at the start. He gets Gaffalione in the
irons and their last pairing ended in a second, losing by only three quarters
of a length.
Army Shawn's Selections
Race Summary: Not seeing too much pace in
here. Maybe the #7 Kizzy B and #10 Priincess Lea go for the lead. I like the #6 Bold Tactics to come from about
mid pack to run them down.
#6 Bold Tactics- Only has 2 career races and has been very
competitive finishing 2nd and 3rd.Started off in the back in both of those
races and closed really good at Oaklawn which is a speed favoring track.
#10 Princess Lea- 7 career races and hasn't finished worst
then 4th. Maybe from the outside post and a race where there's not too much
speed she can get to the front out of the gate. Blinkers do come off which
could help as well.
#5 Seaside Retreat - Has 4 seconds in 5 career starts. It's
her 2nd start after an almost 5 month layoff. Faced tougher last time and only
came up a length short of winning.
RACE SUMMARY: I see the #3 My Sixth Sense
getting the lead with the #10 Big Dreaming and the #1 Dream Maker following
behind. I think the pace will be favorable for the front runners as I think the
#3 My Sixth Sense can take them all the way around. If he does falter then the
#10 Big Dreaming will be your winner.
#3 My Sixth Sense- Gets a pace advantage in here as I don't
see to much other speed in here. Martin Garcia is a good jockey for a speed
horse. He has finished in the exacta in 4 of 8 starts at Churchill. His 3rd start back off a 6 month layoff.
#10 Big Dreaming- The only other one I could see going with
the #3 or just sitting right off. Only ran once on dirt and won. He has
finished in the exacta in 5 of 6 career races.
RACE SUMMARY: Looks like the #1 Naomi Broadway
could get the lead from the rail rather easily.I think the #10 Dalika will come
from the far outside to stalk the pace. I will use both horses with more
confidence in the #10 Dalika. I do think the closers will be flying late. I
will use 2 of them #4 Temple City Terror and #8 Delta's Kingdom.
#10 Dalika- Should be
close to the front in a race with not much pace. Drops in class and has done
well at Churchill winning 2 of 4 with a second as well. She has finished in the
exacta in half of her starts 10 of 20.
#8 Delta's Kingdom- Drops in class today as she has been
running in Grade 3 races. She has been in the trifecta in 12 of 18 races. She
also has 2 seconds and a third in her 3 starts at this distance.
#4 Temple City Terror- Comes from way of it so she will need
pace to run at which might be difficult in this race. Does like Churchill
winning 2 of 3 with a second.
#1 Naomi Broadway- Since this race is lacking pace maybe
from the rail she can go the front and see what happens.
Not much pace looks to me like the #1 Calibrate could get the lead from
the rail or stalk the #4 Incorrigible. Half the field likes to come from way
out of it. I will use one of them the #2 Aloha West.
#1 Calibrate- Won his
maiden race first time out last October then stepped up to Grade 1 company and
didn't fare too well. He then had a 4 month break and came back with a 4th. I
think he could get a nice trip here in front or behind the #4 Incorrigible.
#2 Aloha West- A nose away from winning 2 of his first 3
starts. Highest last race speed rating.
RACE SUMMARY: Looks like at least 2 horses
going to the lead in this race #6 Catholic Guilt and #8 Chantry Flats. The #3 Summer Palace can sit right off.I like
the #9 Fieldstone to rally from mid pack to win.
#9 Fieldstone – Should close from mid pack. First 3 tries on
turf was a win and 2 seconds where he missed by less than a length. Last start
finished 6th after having to go 6 wide. Some pace upfront and a better trip and
he could get there.
#3 Summer Palace- Always close to the pace and hangs around
for at least a piece. He has been in the trifecta in 8 of 9 career races. Joe
Sharp the trainer hits at 26% 2nd off a claim.. Was a neck away last start from
winning 2 in a row.
#5 Perfect Cut- Drops in class and tries turf for the first
time. Trainer Kenneth McPeek hits at 31% when blinkers come off.
#8 Chantry Flats - Has good speed and should be forwardly
placed. He won last race wire to wire which was his first race at Churchill.
22 to 1
There are many here that may want the lead and could go all
the way. I think Kizzy B and Princess Lea will go for the lead, but neither
will win. The ones sitting off the pace like My Pharoah Lady, Waiting on
William, Bold Tactics, Shoshoni Moon and maybe Wolfbane. The 2-turn race will
help some but getting position will be key to the win here because your horse
could end up with traffic problems. Closer wins, not in this race.
#9 – My Pharoah Lady – went off the favorite at Golden Gate
and showed nothing. The all-weather surface not to her liking? I think so,
switch trainers and worked at Keeneland with a series of good even works. Her
mother was unraced, she's 17-year-old, but has 6 foals to race, 4 winners and 2
have won stakes races. All her winning offspring won in races 1 mile or
greater. It's interesting that this horse was bred in the state of Washington.
#1 – Wolfbane – has been racing on the turf in her first
three starts without success. All races have been around 2 turns. In her last
start, she showed some early kick and faded. In her first 2 races, she hit the
starting gate and was bumped badly at the start. Not the best racing
experiences. Is dirt her surface? She is by Union Rags from the Kadira who is a
stakes winner was and faces top company in her career. She has produced a
stakes winner. The non-stakes winner Paolo Queen won only a maiden race (at
distance) but raced the balance of her races in graded stakes company including
the Breeder's Cup. The offspring have preferred dirt.
#5 – Seaside Retreat – has tried 5 times to win and finished
second 4 times. Is this her winning race? Maybe more distance will do the trick
and a 2-turn race. They added blinkers last time out and it helped to finish
second. This is another Union Rags offspring by a mare by Tapit. The mare was a
winner and her 3 other offspring have won and one is a stakes winner Air
be the best thing to do it hit the "all button" in this race
and hope for a longshot to get the pick 5 started.
We may have as many as 6 horses breaking out to get the lead
and will anyone be around at the end. The answer is yes. The late movers will
be getting kickback but will be in position to have a chance. The leaders Big
Dreaming, My Sixth Sense (he will get the lead), Mailman Money, Thirstforlife,
Dream Maker and Finnick the Fierce (maybe Code Runner). It the late horse to
watch, Guest Suite, Empty Tomb and Royal Mesa. Who wins?
#10 – Big Dreaming – this horse is working very fast after
his first start of the year. It fought being restrained in the race and wanted
to show its stuff. Well, it didn't and finished 6th. Switch riders to Ricardo
Santana, Jr. He has won 3 times with 5 turf races (2 wins & 2 places) and 1
dirt race (he won his only dirt start).
He has one stakes race start and lost by ½ lengths at 25 to 1. He won't
be the favorite but 5-2 is a good price. A side note, Big Dreaming is by the
mare Dreaming of Anna and she won a Breeder's Cup race on the dirt.
#5 – Royal Mesa – ran an ok race last out at Keeneland as
the favorite but didn't finish the race and was fourth. He like the distance
and has one win. Win? I think this is an in the money finisher in this race.
#1 – Dream Maker – has been working fast at Mark Cassse's
own training track. Faced grade 3 type horses last time at Gulfstream and
showed speed before backing up and look tired at the finish. Layoff since the
January race, good works, he appears to be ready to go. Money finish but I
don't see him winning.
This is my single play race with Big Dreaming.
An overnight stakes race going 1 ½ miles on the turf. This
is a field of a mixture of grade 3 wantabees and good high end allowance
horses. There appears to be speed on the inside with Naomi Broadway and the
outside with Dalika but I won't be surprise to see another horse seize the lead
and take them around for the first couple of calls. Long race and this appears
to be one of those tactical speed of the race with who sits behind the leader
and who is coming from way off the pace. First Course did it last time out and
Ya Beauty, Temple City Terror, Tweety Show and Cambeliza running winning
efforts in the past. Delta's Kingdom like to be closer to the pace. Who gets up
in time for the win?
#10 – Dalika – needs to be on the lead or at least I think
so. Early in her last race, she was tugging at the reins to move up. The jockey
restrained her to sit third about 3 wide most of the race. She needs to set the
pace and in the last race, if she had her way, she would have maybe run better but
would have not beaten the winner. This time with a better trip and breaks on
top. She will have to clear and get over to have a chance to win.
#8 – Delta's Kingdom – does win but does put up a good
fight. Last out, she beat the rest of the field running second and but like
Dalika, no way was she beating the winner. She made her move before the winner
but was unable to keep up. She's finished in the money 3 times from 3 starts at
#5 – Pass the Plate – will be devoid of any speed at the
start of this race and maybe 10+ lengths behind the field. That doesn't matter,
she is a fast closer and with a proper pace, she will be flying at the end.
Strong closing kick in the last race to run third. Her last race was her first
start going 1 ½ miles around three turns. She needed the start and bring her
right back at this distance make perfect sense to me. Watch her run at the end.
In your pick 5, this is not a race I can find a single.
Spread out and watch for those longshots. I will take 4 horses here.
Only 6 horses are going the 7-furlong race for this NW1
other than or NW2. Calibrate should break on top with Incorrigible and Derby
Date working to keep pace. The others will wait but all the horses will be with
4 lengths of each other.
#2 – Aloha West – closed and missed last time out. He will
sit off the leaders and close fast. He's second race of he's career, he lost
all chances at the start of the race. Good trip and he wins.
#1 – Calibrate – he won he's maiden and the face grade 1
company twice and showed nothing positive. Returning to the races, a better
effort up the rail but appeared to need the race. I think he needs the lead to
have a chance.
#5 – Schmoozin – took 10 starts to break his maiden and then
was completely outrun in his first attempt vs. winners. Since the last race,
there were 4 very good works at Keeneland and Churchill, the best being :46.3
breezing at Keeneland. The works say he's ready but just to finish in the
You could single in this race with Aloha West but Calibrate
has a chance.
Racing at 11pm would be a challenge for anyone and running a
ALW50k for non-winners of 1 other than on the turf will be interesting with the
few horses with no starts on the turf. Will Casanova Kittens misbehave again
and break through the starting gate to delay the start? The first-time starter
on the turf, Catholic Guilt will break for the lead with many battling it out
for position. The last 3 will be Beachwalker, Exult and Fieldstone. The first
to move will be the winner leaving the rest of the field to battle for the
place and show money.
#3 – Summer Palace – claimed 2 starts back for 30k and ran
the next race at this level to finish third losing by a neck as the favorite.
He has some issues in the stretch and could have won the race with a better
trip at the end. In the money 8 times from 9 starts with the only out of money
finish was at Lingfield (GB) on the all-weather. Looks like a useful claim and
will win here.
#6 – Catholic Guilt – will be on the lead and will be finish
strong but unable to hold off the winner. Claimed for 50k, it has taken many
starts since 2019 to finally win. I am surprised that they didn't try this
horse on the turf before because they tried the all-weather and dirt is the
only option at Oaklawn. He appears to need to mature to figure out how to run.
#8 – Chantry Flats – won last time out at Churchill as the
front runner. Same distance today but a move up in class. I think he could sit
behind the leaders and win or could be the leader and win. But I think my
choice is to finish in the money.
If you get this far in the pick 5, you did great. Now the
tough one to win. Many, many chances here. It's a pickem race. I will try with
Race 7: 5,6,7
Race 8: 1,8,3
Race 9: 10,8,4
Race 10: 2,3,1
Race 11: 3,8,10
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