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Podcast: Rich and Crew Joined by Triple Clowns

Horse Racing Radar
Rich Bieglmeier
Friday, May 28, 2021

Sara and AJ from the Triple Clowns join The Player's  Edge - minus Terry "Hollywood" Hay and 22 to 1 Tom. Together, we talk about UFOs. The line is set to 1:1 that the US Government says they exist when the report is released on June 1st. 

They wonder what horse racing at Monmouth Park is going to look like with riders not allowed to use a whip in non-emergency situations. And then onto another confusing issue, Lasix, some races it's allowed and some it's not, at the same track. It makes no sense. AJ has a great solution, in our opinion.

Of course, they get down to picks and make their late Pick 4 selections at Churchill Downs.

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YouTube/Podcast Pick 4 Tickets:



Terry "Hollywood" Hays' Handicapping

Race 8

Race scenario:  #4 Spanish Loveaffair and #6 Postnup will go to the front #9 Saranya will stay close to the pace and catch the leaders down the stretch. I think #7 Gam's Mission and #2 Munnyfor Ro will close at the end and get into the exotics.

#9 - Saranya during her career has finished in the money 85% of time, winning 29% of those entries. She is trained by Brad Cox and Florent Geroux is in the irons. She can run on top or close from behind which is an angle I like!

#7 – Gam's Mission is going for a hat trick. She likes Churchill Downs and just won here, she is stretching out to a mile and an eighth, but I think she may handle the added distance.

#2 – Moneyfor Ro just missed closing for the win at a mile and a sixteenth and the added distance to a mile and an eight is where she last showed she can win.

#4 – Spanish Loveaffair steadied in her last start and lost all chance. She has run against tougher company and while doing so has earned the fastest turf speed of today's entries.

Race 9

Race scenario: #6 Hello Hot Rod will rush to the lead and try to go all the way. # 5 Fulsome and #2 will be in mid pack and close and try to catch the leader at the end. I think #8 Game Day Play will close from deep and get into the exotics.

#5 – Fulsome performed well at today's distance winning easily. He is trained by Brad Cox and Florent Geroux is in the irons. He another entry today going for a hat trick, and I think he will accomplish that task.

#2 – Helium has won three out of four starts in his career only missing in the Kentucky Derby. He is trained by Mark Casse and ridden by Julien Leparoux. He has the best speed rating at today's distance.

#8 – Game Day Play had trouble in his last race and still ran a good 3rd. He will be closing at the end.

#6 – Hello Hot Rod comes in from Pimlico to try his hand against tougher competition. He has early speed which should benefit him in this race.

Race 10

Race scenario:  There is plenty of speed in this race and several horses will try for the lead. #1- Haunt will stay close to the leaders and let them set a fast pace and will move coming into the stretch. #8-Mojo Man will stay back during most of the race and close from deep.

#1 – Haunt just keeps improving every race. He couldn't quite hold the lead in his last race, but today is a bit shorter which plays right into his wheelhouse.

#5 – Empire of Gold has the best dirt speed of all the starters in today's race. During his career he has finished in the money 86% of time, winning 33% of those entries.

#3 – Bango drops in class today and returns to Churchill Downs where he excels, finishing six out of seven times in the money winning four of those starts. He also performs well at today's distance.

 #8 – Mojo Man drops in class and is at a distanced that he has won 41% of his starts.

Race 11

Race scenario:  #4 Ramsey Solution, #5 Pioneer Spirit and #9 Gray's Fable will go to the front. #7- Logical Myth will stay close to the leaders and let them set a quick pace and will move coming into the stretch.  #8-Set Piece will stay back during the race and close from deep with a rush to win!

#8 – Set Piece just won at a mile here at Churchill Downs and stretches out in today's contest. He has a good Trainer/Jockey combination of Brad Cox and Florent Geroux.

#4 – Ramsey Solution has rested since November 13th but has been working out steadily. He has shown in the past that he performs well after taking a break, winning his first race back after a rest. In addition, he has the highest average money won per race of all the entries.

#9- Gray's Eagle - During his career he has finished in the money 75% of time, winning 33% of those entries. He has several sharp workouts recently and has a lot of early speed.

 #7 – Logical Myth has the fastest Turf Speed of all of today's starters. He has raced 21 times winning 33% of those starts.

Play: $.50 Pick 4-Cost: $96.00

·         Race 8:   2, 4, 7, 9

·         Race 9:   2, 5, 8

·         Race 10: 1, 3, 5, 8

·         Race 11: 4, 7, 8, 9

 

22 to 1 Tom's Tips

Race 8 – The Regret – Grade 3

#5 – Barista – will be sitting behind the leaders waiting to make her move. Midpack last time out and got up for second. Will win here.

#4 – Spanish Loveaffair – not the best of trips last out. Better trip, better results tonight

#7 – Gam's Mission – 2 wins and 1 second, steps up in company here. Should be close to the pace. The trainers record for graded stakes races is 30 starters, no winners and 27% in the money finishes. Win?

Race 9 – Matt Winn – Grade 3

#1 – Ready to Pounce – should show speed here, steps up and the owners want to see what they have. Ok work of 1.00 b and last out win at Keeneland. Lots of trouble in his first start.  The last he showed some late kick to draw away.

#7 – Sittin on Go – will be coming on late in the race to pickup a share.

#8 – Game Day Play – will need to establish early position to have a chance. If he does, he may win.

Race 10 – Aristides – Listed Race (good field of horse, maybe grade 3 in the future)

#5 – Empire of Gold – played try and catch me last out at Oaklawn. It worked. Repeat winner for me.

#9 – Sir Alfred James – showed his stuff last out vs lesser company. He will sit behind the leader and maintain position.

#8 – Mojo Man & #10 – Tap It to Win – I really couldn't pass on these 2 horses. I like them both to be around at the end with maybe a little favoring Mojo Man.

Race 11 – Overnight Race

#8 – Set Piece – will be flying at the end. Just need pace to run at.

#9 – Gray's Fable – speed from the outside to get caught by my top choice at the end.

#4 – Ramsey Solution – as on the pace, if not the leader most of the race to get caught at the end. Hang around for a placing spot.

Swiss Army Shawn

RACE 8

Race Summary: Looks like the #6 Postnup or #9 Saranya will go for the lead. The #9 is multi dimensional but with the outside post I think he will try to go to thefront. The #4 Spanish Loveaffair and #5 Barista will be sitting right behind theleaders. The rest of them will close from the back. I'll take the speed of the #9 Saranya and two closers the #7 Gam's Mission and #8 Flown to get thru the first leg of the pick 4.

#7 Gam's Mission- Has run really well in all 3 career starts. Two of those came at Churchill on the turf and she has a win and a second. I like everything about this horse besides that the trainer Cherie DeVaux has 0 winners in 30 graded stakes attempts.

#9 Saranya- Like that this horse is multi-dimensional. I think she goes for the lead from the outside. Unlike the #7 this horse has Brad Cox who hits at 25% in graded stakes. Also, Florent Geroux has had plenty of wins in graded stakes as well. She has been in the exacta 4 or 5 starts on the turf.

#8 Flown- Just lost to my top pick #7 Gam's Mission by a neck last time out. She has finished in the exacta 4 of 5 starts which all came on the turf. Am a little concerned that the horse seems to like to finish 2nd as she did in 3 of her starts.

#4 Spanish Loveaffair- Gets Tyler Gaffaloine back aboard. She did not get a good trip last time out in the Grade 2 Appalachian. Will go back down to a grade 3 race and she is undefeated in races that aren't a Grade 1 or Grade 2.

RACE 9

RACE SUMMARY: The #6 Hello Hotrod should get the lead here. The other two horses that could go or just sit off the pace would be the horses on the inside #1Ready to Pounce and #2 Helium. I think Helium gets a real nice trip in here and wins.

#2 Helium- Won his first 3 races of his career then went to the Kentucky Derby and finished 8th. It wasn't a horrible run for being 38-1 and there being 19 horses in the field. I like the fact that Julien Leparoux gets on him again here after riding him in the derby. Pace should favor him to as he will be really close to the lead from the beginning and fractions shouldn't be too fast.

#5 Fulsome- Is another one out of the Brad Cox barn that will be ridden by Florent Geroux. He has been in great form winning 3 of 4 races this year. He ran his first 4 career races on turf before coming off the turf for his 5th start due to rain. He looked impressive and won in the slop easily. His next start was on a fast dirt track and he won again. He should be another one that can sit right off the pace.

#3 O Besos- He is the other one coming out of the Kentucky Derby. I liked this horse in the derby to finish in the exotics and he finished 5th. Was a good run at 41-1. In here, I'm not sure if the pace will be fast enough for him but I do have to use him as far as class goes.

RACE 10

RACE SUMMARY I see a lot of speed in this one. I could see as many as 6 horses go to the lead or be right on the pace. I like a couple of those horses #10 Tap It to Win for the fact he doesn't need the lead but can be to the outside of it all and Tyler Gaffalione can decide what to do from there.

#10 Tap It to Win- I really like this horse as he's the class of the field. Last race was on Kentucky Derby Day in the Churchill down stakes. He actually went off as the favorite in that race but got caught up in a contested pace and tired badly that day. Flagstaff won the race. He has had 3 starts at Churchill and only has a show in those starts. Those races were longer than this one. In here he shortens back to 6 furlongs a distance he is 3 for 3 at.

#8 Mojo Man- I was looking for a horse that could close into a fast pace and I settled on this horse. He likes the distance winning 7 of 17 races at 6 furlongs. The most experienced runner in the field running 26 times.

#5 Empire of Gold- Very fast might be the one who ultimately gets the lead. Likes the six furlong distance finishing in the exacta in 4 of 6 career starts at the distance. David Cabrera who is a good speed jockey, is on him for the 3rd straight race.

RACE 11

RACE SUMMARY: There could be 3 horses battling it out for the lead here #4 Ramsey Solution, #5 Pioneer Spirit, and #9 Gray's Fable. Out of that group I like the #9 Gray's Fable to have the best shot to win. A bunch of horses will be coming from well of the pace in this one including Ml favorite #8 Set Piece.

#9 Gray's Fable- Has a bunch of speed and is 4 for 10 on turf lifetime. Will be his 3rd start after a 6 month layoff. Has been working out great since the last race a month ago where he led most of the race and then faltered to finish 3rd.

#8 Set Piece- He is the one who ran down #9 Gray's Fable last race. He will look to run down the speed again from the back. He has won 2 of 3 career races on Churchill's turf course. That great combination of Cox/Geroux again.

#4 Ramsey Solution- He has a lot of speed and loves Churchill. He is 2 for 2 on Churchill's turf and he also won his last race which was at Churchill and taken off the turf . He wins half his races on the turf 3 of 6 and half at the distance 2 of 4.

Rich's Rankings

Churchill Downs Race 8 - $150,000 REGRET STAKES – GRADE III

8 – Flown - appears to improve from race to race and should be in top form in her third start after six-months in the barn.

4 - Spanish Loveaffair has four good races out of four. At her best, she could make it look easy.

7 - Gam's Mission won her last two by a neck and has a win and place in two Churchill races.

5 – Barista has the highest, last race speed number.

Churchill Downs Race 9 - $150,000 MATT WINN STAKES – GRADE III

5 - Fulsome has won three of his last four and is yet to run a bad race.

3 - O Besos had better success in the Kentucky Derby than HELIUM, don't see that changing today.

2 – Helium could lead gate to wire.

8 - Game Day Play might have beaten top pick in their last start, but the jockey lost the whip.

Churchill Downs Race 10 - $150,000 ARISTIDES STAKES

9 - Sir Alfred James just ran his fastest race and could be better in third start off the bench.

5 - Empire of Gold ran the top, last race speed figure with some of his fastest fractions.

3 - Bango has won four of six at the distance.

10 - Tap It to Win is the class here, but his last race was without Lasix (like today) and he just stopped, concerned he does the same thing today.

Churchill Downs Race 11 – $110,000 DOUGLAS PARK STAKES

8 - Set Piece has been running his best since switching back to jockey Florent Geroux.

4 - Ramsey Solution is two for two at Churchill and tends to run well fresh.

3 – Parlor consistently makes big middle moves and at can follow it ups with some of the best late numbers too.

9 - Gray's Fable has proven he can maintain speed without Lasix, a question mark for others.


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