In this episode of The Player's Edge, our special guest is the Director of Communications of the Thoroughbred Retirement Foundation and the paddock host and handicapper at Colonial Downs, Jessica Paquette.Rich steals her nickname, Jessica tells us about her nerves and Texas weather from her time as Sam Houston's track announcer.Then they make their pick 4 picks for Saturday at Santa Anita Race Track, including the Thor's Echo Stakes.Great picks, great insights, great fun and a great listen.Make sure you follow Jessica at on Twitter @jmpaquette.
"Hollywood" Hay's Handicapping
#1 Li'l Grazen, #8 Play for My Owner and #9 Starship Defiant will go to
the front. #3 Alice Marble and #4 Another Eddie will stay close to the pace and
try catch the leaders down the stretch. #7 Win Often will close at the end and
get into the exotic's and #4 Another Eddie will close to win at the wire.
#4 – Another Eddie is going for a hat trick and has finished
in the money 100% of the time in her career winning 50% of those races. She
took a short break but has been working well toward this start.
#3 – Alice Marble won her last race at Santa Anita at todays
distanced and received the highest last race speed rating among the starters.
She is trained by Phillip D'Amato and Flavien Prat is in the irons.
#1 – Li'l Grazen likes the distance-(in the money 71% of
time, winning 29% of the starts) and likes Santa Anita entered 18 times
finishing 50% of the time in the money. Her best dirt speed is the fastest
among today's starters.
#7 – Win Often had trouble in her last race compromising her
chances. She moves back dirt where she seems to better.
#3 Nu Pi Lamba will rush to the lead and try to go all the way. #1
Equilove will be in mid pack and close and try to catch the leader at the end.
I think #4 New Heat, #5 Anonymously and #6 California Kook will close from deep
and try to get the win. I expect #4 New Heat will outpace #6 California Kook to
win the race, with #5 Anonymously getting into the exotics.
#4 – New Heat likes the distance and the track. She won her
last race earning the highest last race speed rating of the entries. During her
career she has finished in the money 66% of time, winning 33% of those entries.
#6 – California Kook has been racing in Grade 1, 2 and 3
events and drops down in class today. Her best turf speed is fastest among
#1 – Equilove stumbled and was bumped in her last start
which affected her race. She has high percentage trainer Phillip D'Amato and
performs well on the turf.
#5 – Anonymously won at today's distance at Santa Anita. She
will be closing at the end.
#2 Whooping Jay, #3 Fashionably Fast and #5 Brickyard Ride will go for
the lead. #1 Colt Fiction will all close at the end to win the race.
#1 – Colt Fiction is going for a third win row, going for a
hat trick. He has Jockey Umberto Rispoli in the irons who has been hot the last
7 days (11 5-2-0).
#2 – Whooping Jay has finished first or second in his last
six races. During his career he has finished in the money 91% of time, winning
36% of those entries.
#5 – Brickyard Ride has won seven out of his fifteen career
starts. He likes the distance-(in the money 85% of time, winning 57% of the
starts) and likes Santa Anita running eight times winning five of those starts.
#3 – Fashionably Fast has finished 100% of the time in the
money this year and has been working well for this start. He will be closing
from deep to try to nip them at the wire. He had a five-furlong bullet work of
59:1 on May 30th first out of forty-four horses.
Several horses will go to the front and try to lead until the finish
line. #2- Colosi will stay close to the leaders and let them set a quick pace
and will move coming into the stretch.
#3- Contagion and #6 Gray Magician will close from deep with #3
Contagion winning and #6 Magician getting into the exotics.
#3 – Contagion is having a good year finishing 80% of the
time in the money, winning 40% of the starts. Peter Miller trains and jockey
Flavien Prat rides which is a good trainer/jockey combination.
#6 – Gray Magician drops in class and has the fastest dirt
speed among today's starters. In addition to that he has the highest speed
figure at today's distance.
#2 - Colosi won his last race at Santa Anita at today's
distance. Mark Glatt has been hot in the last 14 days (16: 6-2-3)
#9 – Cono returns to
a mile which is the distance he has done well at in the past. He has a hot
Trainer/Jockey combo-( Michael McCarthy / Juan Hernandez) with the following
record in last 14 days (3 2-0-1).
Army Shaw's Selections
Race Summary: Lots of speed in here I could
see as many as 5 horses try for that front end when the race starts. #2 Civil
Suit #5 Your Royal Coil #8 Pray for My Owner, #9 Starship Defiant, #10
Liberalism. I prefer horses off the speed in this one because of that.
#4 Another Eddie- Debuted on dirt and got a decent 3rd after
a stumble at the start that came without lasix. Then added lasix next start and
went to turf, got a second then got back to back wins. Now back on the dirt
with lasix and hopefully a clean start. Should be in a good position behind
some of the speed horses.
#1 Lil Grazen- Trainer Peter Miller first off the claim hits
at 26%. Has speed but has been sitting off recently which is perfect for this
race. Really sharp last workout on June 5th was 4th fastest out of 68 horses.
#2 Civil Suit- Will use this speed horse because only 1 race
on dirt and it was impressive winning by 13 lengths at Santa Anita. Also, has
been working out really well coming back after a year off.
#3 Alice Marble- Won first race last time out at Santa Anita
after a 6-and-a-half-month layoff. It was also her first race on dirt. Race
should set up good for her pace wise.
Race Summary: Looks very clear there is only one
horse wanting the lead here and should get it. That's the #3 Nu Pi Lambda. The
#4 New Heat and the #5 Anonymously will set behind the- leader and the rest
will take position in
#3 Nu Pi Lambda- The only horse going for the lead should
have a comfortable trip. Jockey Juan Hernandez does really well on speed
horses. I am concerned she has only won 1 of 12 races but she has never gotten
an easy lead like she will here.
#5 Anonymously- This horse's better races came when she was
close to the pace. She should be 2nd or 3rd when leaving the gate and get a
nice trip here.
Race Summary: Looks like the #5 Brickyard Ride will
break for the lead. I could see the #1 Colt Fiction, #2 Whopping Jay, and the
#3 Fashionably Fast sitting close behind. The other two will trail. #2 Whooping
Jay- Making my top pick that 8/1 ML looks juicy for a horse like this. Going
from turf to dirt. Last 5 races on turf finished in exacta in all 5 and won or
loss by a length or less in all of them. Lifetime finished in exacta 9 of 11
races. This will be Mario Gutierrez's 9th straight time on this horse.
#5 Brickyard RIde- I like the jockey switch getting Juan
Hernandez for this race. Should be in front from the start. 5 for 8 at Santa
Anita. Also 4 for 7 at distance. Did lose to the #1 Colt Fictionand behind #6
Loud Mouth last race.
#1 Colt Fiction- Has won 2 races in a row, both at Santa
Anita. Does lose jockey Tiago Pereirawho switches to the #3 Fashionably Fast.
Getting Umberto Rispoli should be about equal if not a little better.
Race Summary: A lot of speed in this race i could see
4 horses going for it the #1 Dr. Troutman, #5 Causeididitmyway, #9 Cono, #10
House Limit. The rest will sit behind and should get a nice run behind dueling
leaders. I think the #2 Colosi and #3 Contagion sits in the right position for
#2 Colosi- Loves Santa Anita winning 3 of 5 with a 2nd. Just
beat the #3 last race. Trainer Mark Glatt is 6 for 16 in the last 2 weeks.
#3 Contagion- Was a short favorite last race and got 2nd.
Should be in a good spot in this race. 5 of 8 in the exacta at Santa Anita.
#9 Cono- One speed horse that if he gets the lead might go
all the way. Likes Santa Anita in the exacta 2 of 3 starts.
22 to 1
Tom's Tips and International Plays
Race 6 – Lots of early pace in the CAL Bred race. It
appears that 6 horses could be trying to make the lead and I think Pray for My
Owner will be the leader at the first quarter pole with a bunch close behind.
Horses like Your Royal Coil and Another Eddie will be in mid-pack and I really
am not sure who will be the trailers. If Alice Marble show her last race
ability, she will begin to close on the leaders at the top of the stretch. Who
#1 Li'l Grazen – off the claim by Doug O'Neil who hits at a
26% off the claim first start and 60% in the money finishes it's hard for me
not to think she can't win. She likes to be on the front so she will have to
break from post 1 well. The trainer has had her work 3 times and the last work
was :47.3 handily and that indicates she ready. I think the brain trust here
was looking for the right race to run her back. Back in for a tag, she has had
problems in the past races. Her last 2 races, she was the favorite, but I see
more like 3-1 or higher in this race. She gets out and into position, she wins.
#9 Starship Defiant – with only 2 races, she won her maiden
on the dirt and then ran a stinker on the turf. She showed speed first out and
the dirt maybe the better spot for her. A work on June 7th of :36.1 handily say
to me better things are coming. She will try for the lead, but I think they
will have to look for position tuck in behind the leaders. Keeping clear on the
outside, she will have a chance to hit the board.
#7 Win Often – well, not she hasn't yet but she has also
been running against open company vs state breds. Her 2 state bred races
resulted in a first and a second. She has a win in open company at the optional
claimer level of 40k. She is getting some class relief here and switching back
to the dirt. She could win here and will sit back a few lengths off the leaders
before moving forward.
Race 7 – two runners here will want the lead, both Nu
Pi Lambda and Equilove has some early foot. The distance trailer here will be
the favorite California Kook. The others will wait their turn on back up coming
onto the stretch. This appears to me to be a jockey's race with that early
position very important and thinking about California Kook. But she has mainly
run distance races against much better, it this a see if she is still interested
race? I am looking elsewhere for the winner.
#1 Equilove – is my top choice. She faced much better last
time out and stumbled at the start losing all chances. She was coming into that
race off a nice maiden win but also was slow away for the gate. She's been away
awhile then returned with 4 works over the track on the dirt. Get out of the
gate will be the key to winning.
#7 Ellerslie Lace – needed her first start. She was wide and
showed little in the race. Her win was at Compiegne at 7 furlongs vs minor
stakes company. She has races verse Group 1 and Group 2 company but showed
little at distances that maybe too far for her. Sprinting maybe her game and
this contest will see if she can do it at this level.
#4 New Heat – defeat CAL Breds last out with a nice late
move. She tries open company here and it one of those type on entries that says
to me, let's see what we have. She's 4 of 6 in the money finishes on turf and
was not happy about the early dirt part of the race in her winning effort last
time out. Hopefully, they did some training on the turf to dirt crossover for
this race. There is value in betting her here.
Race 8 – where in other races today, I had a hard
time finding the front runner. This race is not the case. Brickyard Ride does
all his running on the frontend. Whooping Jay will press the pace but keeping
up with Brickyard Ride will be tough.
The balance of the field will be moving around midrace to try and catch
Brickyard Ride. CAL Bred stake. In the races run this year at Santa Anita at 6
furlongs with is a 80% speed bias so think twice about playing a closer for the
#5 Brickyard Ride – I am tossing out the last race. Awful,
he dueled with his rival in the first part of the race and backup badly. He's
facing some of the same horses again and with speed being his game, he should
win with a better trip. Jockey change indicates to me they were not happy with
the ride last time out and was the beaten 20 cent favorites after facing open
sprint company at the graded stakes level. The work of :58 flat for 5 furlongs
is he's fastest at the distance. He's ready for a much better effort today.
#3 Fashionably Fast – could challenge for the lead or could
sit second and wait. He ran a hard-fought race last out vs. lesser company but
this was open company. Now this is a better spot. The trainer, Dean Pederson
has a great record in non-Graded stakes races of 50% winning and 80% in the
money finishes. A must use horse in your plays.
#1 Colt Fiction – ran his race last out and won with issues
vs. my top selection. I won't be surprised if he can't do it again. He will
need some help to win.
Race 9 – to finish off this 4 pick, we have a tough
race in front of us. There is a little of everything here. The speed is coming
from Cono, Dr. Troutman, Itsthattime & Colosi for will take them through
the first part of the race. House Limit should be close with Contagion the
trailer. For me, in the pick 4, this is an all-button race. But if I must pick
and I do, here goes.
#6 Gray Magician – is a horse with back class and faced much
better that this bunch. He was claimed 2 races back for 40k. Remember, this is
a horse who was running in graded stakes company at one point in his career. 2
races this year have been average at best. A race in February, showed speed and
was close at the end. His race after the claim was not very good at all. He
drops down from that race to a level he should be competitive at. Appreciate
jockey with 7 lbs. allowance will add to the chances and adding blinkers for
the first time, ever? I will assume his been working with blinkers so let's see
if he can show speed. The only way is up for Gray Magician.
#4 Platinum Equity – lugged out of the gate last time
against lesser. What does the trainer do? Works him 3 furlongs from the
starting gate at :35 handily. Let's see if this does the trick. His record at
the distance is 7 wins from 17 starts with in the money finishes 4 times. If
his ready, he could win.
#10 House Limit – claimed 2 races back, he showed speed and
backed out late. Shorter distance helps? I think so and he could be on the
frontend in this race.
TAB Stradbroke Day – Eagle Farms
Winter carnival racing, remember it's winter in Australia
right now. The time difference is 15 hours ahead of Chicago to Brisbane. So,
the Saturday racing will go off for us in the late evening Chicago time. I am
going to look at three races. These are all group races.
Race 5 - Sky Racing The Q22 (G2) 1.2 million AUS
dollars. Weight for age at 2200m . Track is currently rated Good 4. 15 horses
Zaaki – should be the favorite off his win last out in group
1. He's going for 3 in a row. Short price favorite.
Reloaded – has won his last 2 races vs lesser horses. He's
last race was a win at Eagle Farms. It's a tough spot for him but let's see
what he can do.
Brandenburg – 2 crap races to start 2021 and then he came to
life with a win in an open race and a good third to my top choice. Should be
there at the end.
Race 7 - Treasury Brisbane J.J. Atkins (G1) for
2-year old's going 1600m (1 mile).
Converge – was wide in his last race but still made a good
account of himself finishing second. He has won at the distance. He has drawn a
much better post than last out, and this will help his chances to win. He is a
gelding by Frankel (top sire in UK).
Cape Breton – won his first 2 starts. Steps up today in
level and distance but should be able to handle himself here. He will race near
the speed, and you may see this on make the first move going to the leaders.
Volcanic Rock – added blinkers last time out and he led all
the way winning nicely. He steps up to face good speed but if he can steal it
on the frontend, maybe at a price. He has a win over the track and had raced at
1500m in the last.
Race 8 - Tab Stradbroke Hcp (G1) open age 3-year-olds
and up going 1400m (about 7 furlongs). 20 starters.
Wild Planet – off for 7 months and returned with a strong
second in group 1. He has run vs. some of the best and had won in group
company. He will be running at the end.
Victorem – ok last out with a wide post draw. Sat mid-pack
and was move forward at the end. He likes this distance and runs well at Eagle
Farms. This season, he has races only in group 1 or 3 company. Jockey has won
with this horse in the past.
The Harrovian – good third in group 1 last out after a 2-month
break. He has a record of 6 starts and 4 wins at the distance. His career is
52% winning and 67% in the money finishes. Should make good account of himself
Race 6: 3,4,1,9
Race 7: 4,6,3,
Race 8: 1,5,3,4
Race 9: 3,2,1,9
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