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PODCAST: The Player's Edge with Jessica Paquette

Horse Racing Radar
Rich Bieglmeier
Rich Bieglmeier is a Staff writer for Horse Racing Radar
Friday, June 11, 2021
In this episode of The Player's Edge, our special guest is the Director of Communications of the Thoroughbred Retirement Foundation and the paddock host and handicapper at Colonial Downs, Jessica Paquette.

Rich steals her nickname, Jessica tells us about her nerves and Texas weather from her time as Sam Houston's track announcer.

Then they make their pick 4 picks for Saturday at Santa Anita Race Track, including the Thor's Echo Stakes.

Great picks, great insights, great fun and a great listen.

Make sure you follow Jessica at on Twitter @jmpaquette.

LISTEN NOW:


WATCH NOW:


THE PICKS:



 Terry "Hollywood" Hay's Handicapping

Race 6

Race scenario:  #1 Li'l Grazen, #8 Play for My Owner and #9 Starship Defiant will go to the front. #3 Alice Marble and #4 Another Eddie will stay close to the pace and try catch the leaders down the stretch. #7 Win Often will close at the end and get into the exotic's and #4 Another Eddie will close to win at the wire.

#4 – Another Eddie is going for a hat trick and has finished in the money 100% of the time in her career winning 50% of those races. She took a short break but has been working well toward this start.

#3 – Alice Marble won her last race at Santa Anita at todays distanced and received the highest last race speed rating among the starters. She is trained by Phillip D'Amato and Flavien Prat is in the irons.

#1 – Li'l Grazen likes the distance-(in the money 71% of time, winning 29% of the starts) and likes Santa Anita entered 18 times finishing 50% of the time in the money. Her best dirt speed is the fastest among today's starters.

#7 – Win Often had trouble in her last race compromising her chances. She moves back dirt where she seems to better.

Race 7

Race scenario:  #3 Nu Pi Lamba will rush to the lead and try to go all the way. #1 Equilove will be in mid pack and close and try to catch the leader at the end. I think #4 New Heat, #5 Anonymously and #6 California Kook will close from deep and try to get the win. I expect #4 New Heat will outpace #6 California Kook to win the race, with #5 Anonymously getting into the exotics.

#4 – New Heat likes the distance and the track. She won her last race earning the highest last race speed rating of the entries. During her career she has finished in the money 66% of time, winning 33% of those entries.

#6 – California Kook has been racing in Grade 1, 2 and 3 events and drops down in class today. Her best turf speed is fastest among today's starters.

#1 – Equilove stumbled and was bumped in her last start which affected her race. She has high percentage trainer Phillip D'Amato and performs well on the turf.

#5 – Anonymously won at today's distance at Santa Anita. She will be closing at the end.

Race 8

Race scenario:  #2 Whooping Jay, #3 Fashionably Fast and #5 Brickyard Ride will go for the lead. #1 Colt Fiction will all close at the end to win the race.

#1 – Colt Fiction is going for a third win row, going for a hat trick. He has Jockey Umberto Rispoli in the irons who has been hot the last 7 days (11 5-2-0).

#2 – Whooping Jay has finished first or second in his last six races. During his career he has finished in the money 91% of time, winning 36% of those entries.

#5 – Brickyard Ride has won seven out of his fifteen career starts. He likes the distance-(in the money 85% of time, winning 57% of the starts) and likes Santa Anita running eight times winning five of those starts.

#3 – Fashionably Fast has finished 100% of the time in the money this year and has been working well for this start. He will be closing from deep to try to nip them at the wire. He had a five-furlong bullet work of 59:1 on May 30th first out of forty-four horses.

Race 9

Race scenario:  Several horses will go to the front and try to lead until the finish line. #2- Colosi will stay close to the leaders and let them set a quick pace and will move coming into the stretch.  #3- Contagion and #6 Gray Magician will close from deep with #3 Contagion winning and #6 Magician getting into the exotics.

#3 – Contagion is having a good year finishing 80% of the time in the money, winning 40% of the starts. Peter Miller trains and jockey Flavien Prat rides which is a good trainer/jockey combination.

#6 – Gray Magician drops in class and has the fastest dirt speed among today's starters. In addition to that he has the highest speed figure at today's distance.

#2 - Colosi won his last race at Santa Anita at today's distance. Mark Glatt has been hot in the last 14 days (16: 6-2-3)

 #9 – Cono returns to a mile which is the distance he has done well at in the past. He has a hot Trainer/Jockey combo-( Michael McCarthy / Juan Hernandez) with the following record in last 14 days (3 2-0-1).

Swiss Army Shaw's Selections

RACE 6

Race Summary: Lots of speed in here I could see as many as 5 horses try for that front end when the race starts. #2 Civil Suit #5 Your Royal Coil #8 Pray for My Owner, #9 Starship Defiant, #10 Liberalism. I prefer horses off the speed in this one because of that.

#4 Another Eddie- Debuted on dirt and got a decent 3rd after a stumble at the start that came without lasix. Then added lasix next start and went to turf, got a second then got back to back wins. Now back on the dirt with lasix and hopefully a clean start. Should be in a good position behind some of the speed horses.

#1 Lil Grazen- Trainer Peter Miller first off the claim hits at 26%. Has speed but has been sitting off recently which is perfect for this race. Really sharp last workout on June 5th was 4th fastest out of 68 horses.

#2 Civil Suit- Will use this speed horse because only 1 race on dirt and it was impressive winning by 13 lengths at Santa Anita. Also, has been working out really well coming back after a year off.

#3 Alice Marble- Won first race last time out at Santa Anita after a 6-and-a-half-month layoff. It was also her first race on dirt. Race should set up good for her pace wise.

RACE 7

Race Summary: Looks very clear there is only one horse wanting the lead here and should get it. That's the #3 Nu Pi Lambda. The #4 New Heat and the #5 Anonymously will set behind the- leader and the rest will take position in

#3 Nu Pi Lambda- The only horse going for the lead should have a comfortable trip. Jockey Juan Hernandez does really well on speed horses. I am concerned she has only won 1 of 12 races but she has never gotten an easy lead like she will here.

#5 Anonymously- This horse's better races came when she was close to the pace. She should be 2nd or 3rd when leaving the gate and get a nice trip here.

RACE 8

Race Summary: Looks like the #5 Brickyard Ride will break for the lead. I could see the #1 Colt Fiction, #2 Whopping Jay, and the #3 Fashionably Fast sitting close behind. The other two will trail. #2 Whooping Jay- Making my top pick that 8/1 ML looks juicy for a horse like this. Going from turf to dirt. Last 5 races on turf finished in exacta in all 5 and won or loss by a length or less in all of them. Lifetime finished in exacta 9 of 11 races. This will be Mario Gutierrez's 9th straight time on this horse.

#5 Brickyard RIde- I like the jockey switch getting Juan Hernandez for this race. Should be in front from the start. 5 for 8 at Santa Anita. Also 4 for 7 at distance. Did lose to the #1 Colt Fictionand behind #6 Loud Mouth last race.

#1 Colt Fiction- Has won 2 races in a row, both at Santa Anita. Does lose jockey Tiago Pereirawho switches to the #3 Fashionably Fast. Getting Umberto Rispoli should be about equal if not a little better.

RACE 9

Race Summary: A lot of speed in this race i could see 4 horses going for it the #1 Dr. Troutman, #5 Causeididitmyway, #9 Cono, #10 House Limit. The rest will sit behind and should get a nice run behind dueling leaders. I think the #2 Colosi and #3 Contagion sits in the right position for this race.

#2 Colosi- Loves Santa Anita winning 3 of 5 with a 2nd. Just beat the #3 last race. Trainer Mark Glatt is 6 for 16 in the last 2 weeks.

#3 Contagion- Was a short favorite last race and got 2nd. Should be in a good spot in this race. 5 of 8 in the exacta at Santa Anita.

#9 Cono- One speed horse that if he gets the lead might go all the way. Likes Santa Anita in the exacta 2 of 3 starts.

22 to 1 Tom's Tips and International Plays

Race 6 – Lots of early pace in the CAL Bred race. It appears that 6 horses could be trying to make the lead and I think Pray for My Owner will be the leader at the first quarter pole with a bunch close behind. Horses like Your Royal Coil and Another Eddie will be in mid-pack and I really am not sure who will be the trailers. If Alice Marble show her last race ability, she will begin to close on the leaders at the top of the stretch. Who wins?

#1 Li'l Grazen – off the claim by Doug O'Neil who hits at a 26% off the claim first start and 60% in the money finishes it's hard for me not to think she can't win. She likes to be on the front so she will have to break from post 1 well. The trainer has had her work 3 times and the last work was :47.3 handily and that indicates she ready. I think the brain trust here was looking for the right race to run her back. Back in for a tag, she has had problems in the past races. Her last 2 races, she was the favorite, but I see more like 3-1 or higher in this race. She gets out and into position, she wins.

#9 Starship Defiant – with only 2 races, she won her maiden on the dirt and then ran a stinker on the turf. She showed speed first out and the dirt maybe the better spot for her. A work on June 7th of :36.1 handily say to me better things are coming. She will try for the lead, but I think they will have to look for position tuck in behind the leaders. Keeping clear on the outside, she will have a chance to hit the board.

#7 Win Often – well, not she hasn't yet but she has also been running against open company vs state breds. Her 2 state bred races resulted in a first and a second. She has a win in open company at the optional claimer level of 40k. She is getting some class relief here and switching back to the dirt. She could win here and will sit back a few lengths off the leaders before moving forward.

Race 7 – two runners here will want the lead, both Nu Pi Lambda and Equilove has some early foot. The distance trailer here will be the favorite California Kook. The others will wait their turn on back up coming onto the stretch. This appears to me to be a jockey's race with that early position very important and thinking about California Kook. But she has mainly run distance races against much better, it this a see if she is still interested race? I am looking elsewhere for the winner.

#1 Equilove – is my top choice. She faced much better last time out and stumbled at the start losing all chances. She was coming into that race off a nice maiden win but also was slow away for the gate. She's been away awhile then returned with 4 works over the track on the dirt. Get out of the gate will be the key to winning.

#7 Ellerslie Lace – needed her first start. She was wide and showed little in the race. Her win was at Compiegne at 7 furlongs vs minor stakes company. She has races verse Group 1 and Group 2 company but showed little at distances that maybe too far for her. Sprinting maybe her game and this contest will see if she can do it at this level.

#4 New Heat – defeat CAL Breds last out with a nice late move. She tries open company here and it one of those type on entries that says to me, let's see what we have. She's 4 of 6 in the money finishes on turf and was not happy about the early dirt part of the race in her winning effort last time out. Hopefully, they did some training on the turf to dirt crossover for this race. There is value in betting her here.

Race 8 – where in other races today, I had a hard time finding the front runner. This race is not the case. Brickyard Ride does all his running on the frontend. Whooping Jay will press the pace but keeping up with Brickyard Ride will be tough.  The balance of the field will be moving around midrace to try and catch Brickyard Ride. CAL Bred stake. In the races run this year at Santa Anita at 6 furlongs with is a 80% speed bias so think twice about playing a closer for the win.

#5 Brickyard Ride – I am tossing out the last race. Awful, he dueled with his rival in the first part of the race and backup badly. He's facing some of the same horses again and with speed being his game, he should win with a better trip. Jockey change indicates to me they were not happy with the ride last time out and was the beaten 20 cent favorites after facing open sprint company at the graded stakes level. The work of :58 flat for 5 furlongs is he's fastest at the distance. He's ready for a much better effort today.

#3 Fashionably Fast – could challenge for the lead or could sit second and wait. He ran a hard-fought race last out vs. lesser company but this was open company. Now this is a better spot. The trainer, Dean Pederson has a great record in non-Graded stakes races of 50% winning and 80% in the money finishes. A must use horse in your plays.

#1 Colt Fiction – ran his race last out and won with issues vs. my top selection. I won't be surprised if he can't do it again. He will need some help to win.

Race 9 – to finish off this 4 pick, we have a tough race in front of us. There is a little of everything here. The speed is coming from Cono, Dr. Troutman, Itsthattime & Colosi for will take them through the first part of the race. House Limit should be close with Contagion the trailer. For me, in the pick 4, this is an all-button race. But if I must pick and I do, here goes.

#6 Gray Magician – is a horse with back class and faced much better that this bunch. He was claimed 2 races back for 40k. Remember, this is a horse who was running in graded stakes company at one point in his career. 2 races this year have been average at best. A race in February, showed speed and was close at the end. His race after the claim was not very good at all. He drops down from that race to a level he should be competitive at. Appreciate jockey with 7 lbs. allowance will add to the chances and adding blinkers for the first time, ever? I will assume his been working with blinkers so let's see if he can show speed. The only way is up for Gray Magician.

#4 Platinum Equity – lugged out of the gate last time against lesser. What does the trainer do? Works him 3 furlongs from the starting gate at :35 handily. Let's see if this does the trick. His record at the distance is 7 wins from 17 starts with in the money finishes 4 times. If his ready, he could win.

#10 House Limit – claimed 2 races back, he showed speed and backed out late. Shorter distance helps? I think so and he could be on the frontend in this race.

TAB Stradbroke Day – Eagle Farms

Winter carnival racing, remember it's winter in Australia right now. The time difference is 15 hours ahead of Chicago to Brisbane. So, the Saturday racing will go off for us in the late evening Chicago time. I am going to look at three races. These are all group races.

 

Race 5 - Sky Racing The Q22 (G2) 1.2 million AUS dollars. Weight for age at 2200m . Track is currently rated Good 4. 15 horses to start.

Zaaki – should be the favorite off his win last out in group 1. He's going for 3 in a row. Short price favorite.

Reloaded – has won his last 2 races vs lesser horses. He's last race was a win at Eagle Farms. It's a tough spot for him but let's see what he can do.

Brandenburg – 2 crap races to start 2021 and then he came to life with a win in an open race and a good third to my top choice. Should be there at the end.

Race 7 - Treasury Brisbane J.J. Atkins (G1) for 2-year old's going 1600m (1 mile).

Converge – was wide in his last race but still made a good account of himself finishing second. He has won at the distance. He has drawn a much better post than last out, and this will help his chances to win. He is a gelding by Frankel (top sire in UK).

Cape Breton – won his first 2 starts. Steps up today in level and distance but should be able to handle himself here. He will race near the speed, and you may see this on make the first move going to the leaders.

Volcanic Rock – added blinkers last time out and he led all the way winning nicely. He steps up to face good speed but if he can steal it on the frontend, maybe at a price. He has a win over the track and had raced at 1500m in the last.

Race 8 - Tab Stradbroke Hcp (G1) open age 3-year-olds and up going 1400m (about 7 furlongs). 20 starters.

Wild Planet – off for 7 months and returned with a strong second in group 1. He has run vs. some of the best and had won in group company. He will be running at the end.

Victorem – ok last out with a wide post draw. Sat mid-pack and was move forward at the end. He likes this distance and runs well at Eagle Farms. This season, he has races only in group 1 or 3 company. Jockey has won with this horse in the past.

The Harrovian – good third in group 1 last out after a 2-month break. He has a record of 6 starts and 4 wins at the distance. His career is 52% winning and 67% in the money finishes. Should make good account of himself here.

Rich's Ranks

Race 6: 3,4,1,9
Race 7: 4,6,3,
Race 8: 1,5,3,4
Race 9: 3,2,1,9


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