HRR

The Royal Ascot Day 5 with Tom and Rich

Horse Racing Radar
Thomas Deimel
Thomas Deimel is a Staff writer for Horse Racing Radar
Friday, June 18, 2021

Royal Ascot – Saturday June 19th

 

22 to 1 Tom's International Tips

 

Chesham Stakes (Listed) 2-year old's 7 furlongs

 

4 – Port Lonsdale – one race, one win as the favorite at the Curragh. Aiden O'Brien trained horse cost $575k gns at Tattersalls in October of last year with eyes on big thing for this horse. There are other races that this horse could have been entered but a List race at this distance to see what they really have. The dam has produced 4 winners from 8 runners but one of note is Broome (also trained by Aiden O'Brien) who running at Royal Ascot too. The winners have won at all distances from 6 furlongs to 1mile5furlongs. Like many in here, stepping up.

 

5 – Reach for The Moon - a good second to New Science in his first start. He was beat by 1 ½ lengths was no match for the winner that day but in the comment lines it was noted that this horse will be better soon, and he stayed on running even being outpaced. Very promising start. He's owner is simply put in the form as "The Queen", trained by John Gosden and ridden by Frankie Dettori (at this writing, he has won 75 races at Royal Ascot) has all chance of stepping up in this race.

 

1 – Great Max – at winner at Newbury for his first start, travelled well early on, he pick-up in the final furlong being pushed along with a hand ride. 4/1 in the market, he will be one of the favorites here. James Doyle has the ride for trainer Michael Bell who's 2-year-olds are winning at 50% (8 runners, 4 winners) and they have run 18 times at a rate of 22%. The sire (unbeated as a 2 year old) has produced some very nice runner in France including Almanzar a winner of 8 races from 11 starts and Breeders Cup Turf winner Audarya. This is the first foal for the dam. Nice spot for a second win.

 

2 – Masekela – he's winning effort, he looked better as the race went along. He sat behind the leaders first part of the race, bump a rival about halfway and then pulled away nicely with a hand ride. He will want more distance of ground as he matures. The dam has 3 runners, all winners and they have won going 1 mile or more. The sire was a top miler in the US trained by Bill Mott and winner in graded company. Oisin Murphy has the mount and trained by Andrew Balding who 2 year old's are winning at 16% with a +5.50 ROI. Should be a good price here.

 

WET – Heavy to Soft (very soft) Picks

 

2 – Masekela – Won under soft conditions.

10 – Radio Caroline – Won on heavy ground at Haydock at distance

8 – Withering – second finish at Lingfield all-weather.

4 – Point Lonsdale – dam won on soft going. Should like the soft to heavy going

 

The Jersey Stakes (Group 3) 3-year-olds 7 furlongs

 

4 – Creative Force - is coming off 3 wins in a row vs. lesser company, sort of. When he tried a group 2 race as a 2-year-old, he didn't run at all, and this race was at Ascot in the Coventry. He ran ok but didn't have anything left at the finish. He's races have been at 6 furlongs but breeding says that the dams offspring's have run and won at distance of 1 mile or greater. Good test here.

 

9 – Mehmento – won at listed race at Epson last time out. He was the front runner in this small field and when asked to run, he did. He's worst race was a group 1 in France and the winner won the French Derby St Mark's Basilica. Hollie Doyle has ridden this horse twice and both times he won. Great chance here to win.

 

10 – Mustasaabeq – won his first two races at lower level then was put into a group 1 race finishing 7th. The winner of that race has won at Royal Ascot Poetic Flare. Both wins at 7 furlongs and all his runs have been at Newmarket. Let's see what he can do at the group 3 level.

 

WET – Heavy to Soft (still very soft) Picks

 

7 – Khartoum – has won on soft going in maiden and handicap races.

10 – Mustasaabeq – won on heavy and good ground

12 – Navy Crown – won on good and third on heavy going

18 – Light Refain – won on soft and run only ok on heavy going

 

 

The Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) 4+ One mile & four furlongs

 

This is a group 2 race but has some group 1 winners in here. Tough race because many of the horses look on paper, out of form. What to do?

 

8 - Logician – ran an unimpressive race last time out. It was run at this distance vs group 3 horses and he was running along in the opening stages of the race and then when he was push along, he was done and finished a disappointing third. Frankie Dettori has ridden this horse 5 times and John Gosden took over training of this horse in March 2021. He was off 218 days so maybe between new trainer and the layoff he needed a race? Soft going is very questionable for this horse.

 

15 – Wonderful Tonight – is coming into this race off a layoff. Last race was a win in the fall at Ascot, group 1. She has won in France at Deauville in a group 3 race with William Buick aboard as he will be today and won at Paris Longchamp in a group 1. Her running's in stakes races 6 times and won 3 of them. She at the right level. If she ready, she can do. Won group 1 on soft going at Ascot.

 

2 – Broome – in looking at the Aiden O'Brien horses, I like this one the best. After running a awful race in October, this run very well in 2021 with 3 wins and 1 second. They started out in a listed races in Ireland then moved him up the ladder from group 3 (win), group 2 (win) and group 1 (second). Look for a good effort here.

 

WET – Very Heavy to Soft Picks

 

14 – Albaflora – won and placed on soft going at Ascot

15 - Wonderful Tonight – won group 1 at Ascot on soft going last time out

5 – Hukum – won last race on soft going and also won on good to soft going

2 – Broome – won on soft going but also finished last in race at Ascot with soft going.

 

The Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) 4+ Six Furlongs

 

10 – Starman - is the standout here. He came back to the races after layoff and won by a neck at York in a group 2 race. He was asked for his run about 1 furlong out and was very strong to finish. He's won all but one race where at Ascot last year he ran a real stinker finishing 14th. He was slow to start, pushed along early and no finish. He's only run at 6 furlongs and trying for a group 1 win. He's beaten Oxted who won this year at Royal Ascot in the King Stand.

 

5 – Glen Shiel – ran fourth last out in he's first start of 2021. He was the favorite and was making headway in the middle of the race and then didn't have enough to finish. He's had 20 starts with 5 wins and 6 places. This veteran will be running strongly at the end today.

 

1 – Art Power – won at Royal Ascot last year in a handicap race. He's first start of the year was with an awkward for the gate, took hold and when shaken up for his run had little room to go and had to switch to the right with 1 furlong left to go. Pushed along he finished a weaken 6th. I am hoping he need a race and will improve off that race. The trainer Tim Easterby, trains both flat runners and jumpers. If he can finish better, he will have a chance for a placing. Win?

 

WET – Heavy to Soft Picks

 

2 – Dream of Dreams – won soft ground but only 3 horse field

1 – Art Power – won on soft going but has finished out of the money on heavy to soft going.

6 – Happy Power – won group 2 on soft going but lost on soft ground at Ascot

5 – Glen Shiel – has won on all types for goings. Soft is no problem.

 

 

Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) – 28 runners

 

14 - Pendleton

4 – Rohaan

22 - Barbill

13 - Above

2 - Chil Chil

 

WET – Heavy to Soft Picks

 

24 – Air Raid

17 - Guilver

 

 

Golden Gates Stakes (Handicap) – 16 runners

 

18 - Possible Man

5 - Tamborrada

3 - River Alwen

6 - Alfaadhel

 

WET – Heavy to Soft Picks

 

19 – Skycutter

17 – Seasett

4 – Visualsation

7 – Baton Rough

 

Queen Alexandra Stakes – 20 runners

 

7 - Cleonte

15 - The Grand Visir

3 - Who Dares Wins

5 – Barbados

 

WET – Heavy to Soft Picks

 

4 – Stag Horn

3 – Who Dares Wins

12 – Morando

14 – Stratum

5 – Barbados

 

Rich's Ranks

 

Race 1

 

4 - Point Lonsdale

3 - New Science

1 - Great Max

9 - Out In Yorkshire

 

Race 2

 

4 - Creative Force
2 - Fast Raaj

12 - Naval Crown

18 - Light Refrain

 

Race 3

 

7 - Japan
6 - Ilaraab

9 - Mogul

11 - Sir Ron Priestley

 

Race 4

 

10 - Starman

7 - Nahaarr

2 - Dream of Dreams

5 - Glen Shiel

 

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