Up and coming jockey Chase Miller joins Terry, Shawn, Tom and Rich to talk about getting the most out of his rides, growing up in the horse racing business and crowns a new jockey king. Chase tells us who he thinks is the best jockey right now.
Shawn call his shot and says this is his week while Rich channels his inner Terry.
Like always, great picks and good fun, give it a listen.
Make sure you follow Chase Miller at:
and 15 are Alternative Entries – they replace the 8 and 1, in that order,
should they scratch into the race.
"Hollywood" Hay's Handicap
#8 Pirate Rick, and several other horses will go to the front. #2
Extreme Force will stay close to the pace and catch the leaders down the
stretch. #5 Aasr and #7 West Warpath will close from deep and get into the
#2 – Extreme Force has performed well at todays distanced
and has a good Trainer/Jockey combination which has been hot in last 14 days
(15 4-5-1). He has the highest average money won per race of today's entries.
#7 – West Warpath had trouble in his last race and still
finished a good second. He is going up in class but has finished in the money
75% of the time in his short career. He has only had four races and who knows
how good he really can be!
#5 – Aasr will be closing from deep. He returns to the class
where he ran second last time at Churchill Downs.
#8 – Pirate Rick drops in class for this contest. He will go
for the lead and if he is not pressured can go all the way.
#1A Stand Tall and #8 Three Flamingos will go to the lead and try to go
all the way. #4 Take Charge Ro will be in mid pack and close and try to catch
the leaders. #7 New Heat and #5 Lake Lucerne will close from deep and try to
get the win. I expect #1A Stand Tall will hold on to win the race.
#1A – Stand Tall came within a head of having a perfect year
this year. She did not give up in her last race and dug in well to just get
beat. She has been improving every race and I see that continuing.
#5 – Lake Lucerne won her last race at Gulf Stream Park. She
has done well since coming to the USA and will close from deep.
#7 – Enjoyitwhileyoucan closes with a rush and today will be
no different. During this year she has finished in the money 100% of time,
winning 25% of those entries.
#8 – Three Flamingos drops back down in class for today's
race where she can be competitive. She has a high percentage trainer/jockey and
has one of the highest last race speed rating in the race.
#4 – Take Charge Ro won her last race at Churchill showing a
big improvement in her second race after a three-month break. During her career
she has finished in the money 71% of time, winning 29% of those entries.
#1 Sheomajestic, #3 Four Graces and #6 Jungle Juice will go for the
lead. #4 Bell's the One and #5 Sconsin will all close at the end and I think
will win the battle outrunning #4 Bell's the One to win the race.
#5 – Sconsin won her last race and has the highest last race
speed rating in the race. She has Jockey Tyler Gaffalione in the irons for a
second time and will repeat her last race win.
#3 – Four Graces cuts back in distance which will help her
early running speed. She is having a good year-(in the money 71% of time,
winning 57% of the starts) and likes Churchill Downs running three times
winning two of those starts.
#4 – Bell's the One has won a Grade 1 race and has the best
dirt speed among today's starters. During her career she has finished in the
money 70% of time, winning 41% of those entries.
Several horses will go to the front and try to lead until the finish line.
I think #1- Miner's Queen could lead the race all of the way if she breaks
well. #6 Music App will close from deep
and #6 get into the exotics.
#1 – Miner's Queen has a small edge in this wide-open event.
Steven Asmussen trains and jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. rides which is a good
trainer/jockey combination. The cutback in distance can only help.
#6 – Music App is out of a Dam which has produced four
winners out of seven starters. She ran a good second in her last race and can
stay on top in this shorter distance.
#7 - Honorably is trying turf for the first time but her
breeding suggest she will do fine. She showed a big improvement in her last
race running second.
#12 – Fine Cotton had
trouble in her last race and has a jockey change to James Graham who has been
hot the last seven days (14 5-2-1). She has a 4F 47 B work (7/141) in
preparation for this race.
#13 – Nota Bene turf speed is the fastest among today's
starters. She is back to the distance where she ran a fast closing second only
losing by a half of length.
Army Shawn's Selections
There are as many as four horses that will try to go to the front right
away, #1 Soros,#4 Top Gunner,#6 He's a Babe, and the one I ultimately think
gets the lead after the gates open #8 Pirate Rick. The horse that could get a nice setup here
coming to the front late would be #5 Aasr.
#8 Pirate Rick- The horse I think gets the lead from the beginning
which is always dangerous especially at Churchill. Another angle I love comes
into play here and that's a speed horse dropping in class. Does have a win at
Churchill in which he only had 2 starts at.
#5 Aasr – High jockey trainer combo Gaffalione/Maker. Loves
the track in 2 starts has a win and second. Going from a route to a sprint an
angle Michael Maker hits at 22%. He should be just sitting off the horses that
go for the lead.
#11 Silver Ratio- Dropping in class. Has only had 4 starts and won 1 and got a
third. This will be his first time at Churchill. Has some good late pace
numbers and should be coming late.
Looks to me like only 2 horses in here want to be out front from the
beginning. That would be #6 Golden Curl and #8 Three Flamingos. I could see #4
Take Charge Ro stalking them and then the rest will be closing from the back.
#8 Three Flamingos- She is another speed horse dropping in
class that shouldn't have too much pressure up front. Cuts back in distance
from last race and returns to 1 1/8 mile which she won at 2 starts ago. Has
been off for almost 2 months but trainer Cherie DeVaux hits at 17 % with that
kind of layoff.
#5 Lake Lucerne- Won her last start which was just her 2nd
here in the US. That start also was at Churchill. She will be closing from
#7 Enjoyitwhilewecan- This horse has been really good
lately. Last 4 races won 1 and lost by a neck, nose, and a half a length. Has a
great jockey trainer combo Gaffalione/Maker.
#4 Take Charge Ro- Moves up in class but has won 2 of 3. Has
one win at Churchill in only 2 starts. She has been in the exacta 4 of 6 races
on the turf. Of those 6 races only lost one by more than a length.
I expect the #1 Shesomajestic and #3 Four Graces to go for the lead and
the #3 Four Graces should end up with it. The rest will sit behind and the #4
Bell's the One will be the early trailer.
#3 Four Graces- She has won 2 of 3 at Churchill with the
other race being a second. Record with jockey Julien Leparoux is really good
with only one bad race being the last one 8 months ago. Overall with Leparoux
has won 4 of 6 races with a second.
#5 Sconsin-Has won 3 of 5 at Churchill with a second. Got a
victory last start with having Tyler Gaffalione aboard and going 6 furlongs for
the first time. Both the jockey and distance are the same again.
I see the #1 Miner's Queen, #6 Music App, and #10 Fayette Blue go for
the lead here. Whoever gets the lead might be the winner in this short race.
#1 Miner's Queen- I like that this horse's career debut came
on turf she showed speed in that race then backed out. After that she was
switched to dirt for 4 races again showing speed in some and backing out. Her last
2 races were her best finishing 2nd and 4th. Now going back to turf from the
rail in the shortest race of her career 5 ½ furlongs might be what she needs.
#6 Music App- Has speed and is now racing her shortest race
at 5 ½ furlongs. Has some turf breeding in her.
#7 Honorably- This horse will be just off the 3 speed horses
if they hook up she will be close enough to take advantage. Just ran this
distance on dirt and finished 2nd. First time on turf and breeding says she
might take to it.
#10 Fayette Blue- Has showed speed in both turf starts going
long. Now she cuts back in distance and hopes to last longer.
22 to 1
I think there is a lot of early pace in this race. I can see
Pirate Rick, Top Gunner & Extreme Force on top with Mahomes Money, He's a
Babe, Aasr & Soros up front too. Moving on the turn, I see Silver Ratio and
Mister K on the move and maybe West Warpath starting to get going too. Who win?
8 – Pirate Rock – drops in class to a claimer from better
Oaklawn and Keeneland races. A maiden claimer winner at 50k, they have tried
higher levels and he over matched based on his front running speed. On the lead
11 – Silver Ratio – drops here and not raced since March.
Fair works and faced better at both Oaklawn and Gulfstream. When he raced in an
optional claimer at 75k, he tried the 1 mile and finished an ok 4th with
issues. He's last race, he was the last horse out of the starting gate and never
looked like him was going to move up at any time in the race. This is a better
distance for him, and he just needs a good start. David Cabrera has the mount.
5 – Aasr – dropped in class last out, he finished second as
the favorite and lost by 4 lengths. He should be near the leaders and be moving
along to make his bid 3 or 4 wide. He had a useful race last time out and today
he has a chance.
I can't find a front runner in this bunch but there are 4
horses who may want the lead. Three Flamingos, Golden Curl, Stand Tall &
Enjoyitwhilewecan appear to want to give it a shot. I see a slow pace here with
Witez, Take Charge Rio picking up the leads as they enter the second turn.
There are plenty of late runners here and it could look like a calvary charge
at the end.
1 – First Course – drop into this race after running in a
minor stake race. She was way back most of the race and then moved up. He was
checked hard during the race. She will need pace to run at to have a chance and
my concern is that is this 1 1/8 long enough? She doesn't need to have a strong
start, just sit back and make that one move. I think she can win.
8 – Three Flamingos – could she "steal" this race? She will
show speed from the gate and could be the front runner. Will Brian Hernandez
may take her to the lead at first and slow the pace or he could put 4 or 5
lengths ahead of the second horse. If and that's a big if, she can steal the
front, she will be in the money when the calvary comes running at the leaders.
9 – Witez – appears to be ready to run a big race. She ran
ok last out with pace and then backout but kept on in the stretch. She tried
grade stakes races with no winning success. Here is a chance to run better off
her last 2 races. I can certainly see a placing in this race.
I want to mention one on also-eligible list. 13 Pythoness is
late runner and won her last 2 races. Her 2 races this year a maiden win at
Tampa and optional claimer 20k at Arlington win with a driving finish. She
always has problems getting out of the starting gate. I would be very surprised
if this is solved today. If she draws into the race, she has an excellent
chance to make it 3 in a row. She appears to finally figure out how to run and
win. I like her work coming into this race of :46 flat breezing at Arlington on
the all-weather surface. Her fitness is good.
A nice overnight stakes race with graded stakes winners.
Three horses that could be on the lead. Four Graces, Shesomajestic and Jungle
Juice will be looking for the front. Miss Mosaic sitting behind the leaders
with Sconsin and Bell's the One coming late.
4 – Bell's the One – she missed by ¾ in her first race of
the year at Keeneland and was off slowly in her next race at Churchill and made
up some ground. Her works have been working like a house on fire :47.1, :46.3,
:46 flat and :46.2 since her last race. She runs late and she's beaten grade 1
company in the past.
5 – Sconsin – winner last out in the grade 3 race, she blew
past the leaders, and it looked effortless. She is a grade 2 and grade 3 winner
but not grade 1. Like my top horse, this is a drop in class and she will be the
2 – Miss Mosaic – had raced on the all-weather and turf
before her last race trying the dirt. An strong bid and lost by a head. She
drew post 11 in that race and went out to sit with the leaders and made the
lead but couldn't hold on. It's dirt really her preferred surface? Maybe.
For me, this maiden turf sprint is for both dirt bred as
well as turf bred horses. It all about speed and getting out of the gate in a
full field. I really don't know who gets out and leads but they all will be
battling for early position. On the turn, I hope that my horses is out in
front. My choice...
12 – Fine Cotton – first 2 starts on the dirt were losses by
big margins. So why do I like her? Neil Pessin made an equipment change by
adding blinkers and the works say to me, she's ready for a big effort. Works of
:47 flat, :47 flat, :47.1 are the best published works she have ever done.
Looking for speed with the blinkers? I think so. A $450k purchase at Keeneland
by Curlin, she should like the surface. As always with an outside post, she has
to get out and will make all the running. James Graham has the mount. If she
runs to her works, she wins.
11 – Pathetique – a first time starter for Philip Bauer has
work well for her first start. Works of :49.4, 1:00 from the starting gate,
:59.3, :47.1 impress me. Another $450k purchase is by Uncle Moe and the dam won
stakes races. This is the first foal from the dam. She may have a bright future
5 – Posh Playday – another first time start with good works
:47 flat from the starting gate is one I like. Her sire Upstart is up and
coming sire and the dam was a winner on turf and her only foal to race also won
on the turf. They paid $100k at Keeneland and she is trainer by Glen Wismer is
just getting started as a trainer. Let's see what she can do.
5 - Aasr
11 - Silver Ratio
8 - Pirate Rick
2 - Extreme Force
5 - Lake Lucerne
4 - Take Charge Ro
7 - Enjoyitwhilewecan
11 - Empress Eleanor
8 - Three Flamingos
4 - Bell's the One
5 - Sconsin
3 - Four Graces
6 - Jungle Juice
7 - Honorably
15 - Dynamite Gift (AE)
13 - Nota Bene (AE)
8 - Ms Temptation
1 - Miner's Queen
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