"Hollywood" Hay's Handicap
#2 Brig and #4 Uptown will go to the front. #7 Historically will stay
close to the pace and try and catch the leaders down the stretch. #3 Buckeye
Magic will close from deep and win.
#3 – Buckeye Magic has the highest last race speed rating.
During his career he has finished in the money 100% of time, winning 60% of
#2 – Brig can either lead all the way or come from behind.
He has only finished out of themoney in his career two out of ten races. If he
stays close to the pace and does not try to lead all the way he could win this
#4 – Uptown likes the track finishing 100% of the time in
the money, winning 50% of those starts. He has a hot Trainer/Jockey combo in
last 14 days (2 2-0-0).
#7 – Historically best dirt speed is the fastest of today's
starters. He changes to jockey Luis Saez which may help.
#2 Crystal Ball and #6 Racinrosemary will go to the lead and try to go
all the way. #1 Horologist and #9 Spice is Nice will be in mid pack and close
and try to catch the leaders. #8 Getridofwhatailesu will close from deep and
try to get the win and get into the exotics. I believe #9 Spice is Nice will be
successful catching the leaders to win.
#9 – Spice is Nice has won two races in a row and is now
going for a hat trick. She is one for one at today's distance and two for two
#2 – Crystal Ball will be on top trying to lead all the way.
She has demonstrated that she can hold her speed at today's distance. During
her career she has finished in the money 83% of time, winning 50% of those
#1 – Horologist has won Grade 3 and Grade 2 races. She has
the highest speed rating of all the starters in this race plus a sharp workout
of 48B at 4furlongs.
#8 – Getridofwhatailesu will be closing from deep to try and
win the race. She has a good trainer/jockey combination (William Mott - Joe
Bravo) and has the best speed among today's starters.
#1 Promise Keeper, #5 Ethical Judgement and #6 Hello Hot Rod will go for
the lead. #11 Channel Fury will sit just behind the leaders and will close at
the end and win the race. #2 Falcons Fury will close from deep to get into the
#11 – Channel Fury is going up in class but has finished
100% of the time in the money during his career, winning 50% of those races. He
has a high percentage trainer (James Jackson) and jockey (Luis Rivera). I love
to play horse climbing the class ladder.
#10 – Masqueparade has the best last race speed rating, and
his best dirt speed is the best among today's starters. He won his last race at
today's distance at Churchill Downs.
#1 – Promise Keeper has just won the Peter Pan, a Grade 3
race and breaks from the rail which is winning at a 18% clip. If he breaks on
top, he could go all the way.
#2 – Falcons Fury has been having a good year finishing 100%
in the money, winning 25% of those races. He will be closing with a rush from
Army Shawn's Selections
Race Summary: The #2 Brig should get the lead
after the gates open. The #4 Uptown and #5 Exprimir should be right behind the
#2. The one that will do his best running late is #3 Buckeye Magic.
#3 Buckeye Magic- Has ran 5 career races and the only bad
one was his first career start but even there he did close to finish 3rd. After
that start he is neck away from winning 4 straight races. John Mckee has been
aboard for all his races and will be again today. Has beaten some of these
horses already in past races.
#4 Uptown- Likes Thistledown winning 2 of 4 and being in the
trifecta in all 4 starts. Gets Jose Bracho up again who has been aboard for all
his 9 races so far. Jose is hitting at 27 % so far this meet and 20% for the
year. He should be right behind the #2 and be able to get first run once the #2
comes back to them.
#7 Historically- Has lost to some of these horses before
repeatedly but now gets a big upgrade in jockey with Luis Saez. Likes Thistle
winning 2 of 3 with a second.
$20 win #3
$1 exbox 3/ 4,7
$1 Tri 3/ 4,7,8/4,7,8
$1 Pick 3: 3,4,7/2,4,8,/1,7
Race Summary: Looks like 3 horses could want
the front here #2 Crystal Ball, #4 Miss Bigly, #6 Racingrosemary. The #6 should
be the first one to fade if he can even show speed here against tougher. The #1
Horologist will be your mid-pack horse while #8 Getridofwhatailesu will be the
deep closer in here.
#4 Miss Bigly- This horse is getting better and better just
needs to stay off the turf. He is 3 for 5 on a fast dirt track finishing in the
trifecta in all 5 races. A sloppy track again has won 3 of 5 and finished in
the trifecta in all of those races. He started out his career on turf a lot and
was 0 for 10 with only 4 finishes in the money. Will be out on the lead or real
close to the pace. Martin Garcia is a good speed horse jockey.
#8 Getridofwhatailesu- Closes from the back and always to be
right there and get in the exotics. If the couple speed horses go too fast, she
will be the one to take advantage. Dylan Davis was riding really good before
his injury and now even seems better since coming back.
#2 Crystal Ball- Has won 2 in a row at 2 different tracks to
start out 2021. Should be the other one close to the pace and again has a good
jockey for that Luis Saez. Did go this distance once before and lost by a head.
$20 win #4
$1 exbox 2,4,8
Race Summary: This race has some pace to it as
at least 4 horses will try for that early lead. The #5 Ethical Judgement, #6
Hello Hot Rod, #10 Masqueparade and #11 Channel Fury. With the rail and speed
#1 Promise Keeper could go as well. The horses that could take advantage of the
hot pace are the #7 The Reds and the #8 Keepmeinmind.
#1 Promise Keeper- Has won 2 in a row which were both at
this distance. I like that horse can go to the lead or sit off. Jockey Luis Saez
will be aboard again right like his other 5 starts. He has won at 3 different
tracks and looking to make it 4.
#7 The Reds- This horse should be able to take advantage of
what possibly could be a hot pace. Will be closer to the pace than the other
closer #8 Keepmeinmind. Has done well at this distance winning 2 of 4 and being
in the money in all the races.
#8 Keepmeinmind- Will be coming late but always seems to be
too far back to win. Does get lasix in this race and also goes back to wearing
blinkers. Maybe against an easier level here can be closer to the pace and get
#1 $1 Exbox 1,7,8
22 to 1
Brig will way out front again and run out of "gas"? We may a
couple of horses who don't get out of the starting gate too. Most likely,
Exprimir and Uptown (if he gets out of the starting gate) will be towards the
front with everyone else but Buckeye Magic and Somekindafuhey seeing the back
ends. Some movement will begin on the backside with Team Leyendecker, Henry Mac
and Historically getting in gear. Top of the stretch, Brig is gone and the rest
of the goes out. The winner will widest of all?
7 – Historically – didn't do anything in his last race.
Awful. He wins are sprints but both distance races, well not much but the last
race he ran in was scheduled for the turf. Why do I pick him? I think he needs
a fast track. In both of his loses, he had a sloppy and muddy track. Last work
was :46.2 breezing. That's good. Luis Saez picks up the mount, very good
change. He has a record of 2 wins and 1 place at the Thistledown. The trainer
Tim Hamm is on fire. 41 starters at the meet, 16 winners at a 39%. 9 starters
have finished in the money. There is a chance of rain on Saturday.
6 – Team Leyendecker – just won his maiden race last out.
Why do I like these last 2 races? They were at Thistledown. He was the favorite
in both and finished second then first. A horse for course? The trainer Tina
Ramgeet sends out fit horses. Two starters at this meet, 1 winner and 1 place.
Her overall 2021 record is 51 races 18% winners and 52% in the money finishes.
Next race after a maiden win, her numbers are: 6 races 17% wins and 50% in the
money finishes. Big step up? Why not a in the money finish.
3 – Buckeye Magic – he will be the favorite at a short
price. He comes late. There is plenty of speed for him to run at. Won the last
a restricted Ohio bred race moved from the turf. Some of the same horses are in
this race. Bad start last race, didn't matter.
We have some speed in this race. Crystal Ball, Spice is Nice
(if they run her in this race?), Miss Bigly and Horologist will want the lead.
Racinrosemary will be up there too. Jilted Bride, Quickpay and
Getridofwhatailsesu will look for position and I have no idea what Gran Baby
will do. Move along, we see Jilted Bride move closer to the leaders with some
now giving way. Top of the stretch is now 5 horses with a chance to win.
8 – Getridofwhatailesu – won her first start of the year in
January at Oaklawn and then was tossed against some of the best mares in the
country. Shedaresthedevil, Latruska, Swiss Skydiver, Spice is Nice (in the
race, maybe?), Monomoy Girl plus others. She did ok overall. She had an
eventful start in her last race and was stuck on the rail which was not the
place to be. She still managed to finish third to Spice is Nice who dueled hard
to win. First time Dylan Davis rides this horse for Brad Cox. Looks to me to be
a ship in to win.
2 – Crystal Ball – since getting this horse from a trainer
who's in a bit of trouble right now, he has worked her 5 times and they are
useful see what he has works. She raced at Saratoga last year to lost to Paris
Lights. This year, they started her off in 2 lower-level races, after racing in
2 grade 1's. She won both and has look very good in both. The last race, the
comment was "ears picketed 2 path" on the lead. She's on the frontend and if
she gets her way, she could win.
1 – Horologist – didn't run her race last out at Pimlico
again some of these horses in this race today. She was awkward from the
starting gate and tracked and dueled on the frontend and they had nothing left
for the finish. She wants to be near the lead, and she gets out of the starting
gate to do that. Since a walk off race (some was wrong) at Santa Anita, she run
some very good races winning 3 of them. The only really very poor performance
was the Breeder's Cup Fillies & Mares race.
You think race 7 and race 8 had front runners, well this is
crazy filled race of front runners. Masqueparde wants the lead, so does Channel
Fury from the outside post. So does Ethical Judgement, Promise Keeper, Hello
Hot Rod, Proxy, Hozier and Falcons Fury. Who waits and get position, will win?
This could be King Fury, The Reds(scratched) with Keepmeinmind running an even
race, again. Who wins?
4 – King Fury – won the Lexington nicely and then was
scratched from the KY Derby because was sick. He's run 2 bad races in my
looking both to Essential Quality (so has a few other horses). With a winning
effort in his 3-year-old debut, he looked good. Time off won't hurt him. Works
of :58.2, 47.3 and 1:00.2 are good and showing fitness. His bred for distance
and all his past races have been at 1 1/16. He gets Lasix for the first time
and looks primed for a big effort off the disappointment of the owners not to
run in the KY Derby. He will be midpack early in the race.
5 – Ethical Judgement – he has finished first or second in
all his races. He was off 140 days and won at Keeneland first back. He may want
the lead, or he may sit midpack. Either way, he has a good chance here. Works
into this race are within the normal work pattern we have seen before. Win? In
the money finish, yes.
1 – Promise Keeper – the big favorite in this race off the
win in the Peter Pan at Belmont. Was kept on the race when challenged. But he's
run some crap races too. He was a distance 4th to a minor stakes and the Tampa
Bay Derby was trying and failed badly race. Post position may have played a
role in this race. He draws inside and will be pushed out to the lead with
others. There is a bunch of speed in this race and that may do him in. Could he
have traffic problems? Yes. But I think he's good enough to finish in the
money. If he doesn't, then we are going have very nice payoffs.
3 – Buckeye Magic
2 - Brig
8 – Henry Mac
4 - Uptown
9 - Spice Is Nice – probably going to scratch
2 - Crystal Ball
1 - Horologist
4 - Miss Bigly
8 – Getridofwhatailesu – replacement if Spice is Nice runs at Churchill
9 - Proxy
1 – Promise Keeper
8 - Keepmeinmind
11 - Channel Fury