22 to 1 Tom's International Tips
GAIN Railway Stakes – Group 2 for 2-year old's - Saturday
The challenge of figuring out what 2-year-old will show up today. We see a few that recently ran at Royal Ascot and then we have the ones who stayed home.
13 – Masseto – last race at Royal Ascot, he dwelt at the gate then decided to run. He finished 4th but the race to win was over early. His first 2 races, he showed up winning a 5 ½ furlong race and then second in a 6-furlong race and that day was no match for the winner in a group 3. They are looking toward bigger races for him because he is entered in a group 1. He is all sprinter because he's sire never won a race over 1 mile. This is his time to go and hopefully not get left at the starting gate.
11 – Go Bears Go – I liked him at Royal Ascot and I like his chances here. In the race at Royal Ascot, he was nosed out of the win. He raced in a group of 7 on the far side of the course. Where was the best place to be that day? Well, the grandstand side did better overall. I give him another chance here. The distance, 6 furlongs in not an issue because the offspring have won races at 5 furlongs to 1 ½ miles. The sire was a miler when he raced. In form, now can he hold on to this time?
19 – Agartha – has not won a race yet but finished third in 2 maiden events against for group placed horses. She just needs to have that closing or finishing furlong to win. Can she do it this time? The sire was a good sprinter, and the dam was good at distance races. So, what do you get here? She may just want more distance to win.
The Irish Derby – Group 1 – Post Time: 9:45am Central Daylight Time - Saturday
There are 17 runners in the race and let's try and find a winner. The current track condition are: Good to Firm in spots. The is racing on Friday, June 25th so we can get some idea of what, if any, bias there is.
5 - High Definition – winner of his first 2 races (one a group 2 race) he had eventful run at York. He was taken back and at 3-furlong pole, lost ground. He made of ground but really looked like his was laboring home. Did he need a race? Looks like it. The owners/trainers were not tempted by the English Derby, or the Royal Ascot meet because the Irish Derby was their target. If he gained anything from the last race, he should show much better here. The dam has product 3 runners and they all have won at a distance of 1 mile or more.
3 - Earlswood – won he's maiden in March and then won again in a group 3 race at the Curragh on soft to heavy going. He looked very comfortable in winning. He was pushed at the 2-furlong marker and keep inside in the final furlong to the wire. Useful race. He is a May foaled, so maybe at little late in developing. The dam has 3 runners, all winners and all at distances of 1 ¼ miles up to 2 ½ miles. Should have a good run here. This is a longshot play.
6 - Hurricane Lane – will be the favorite at post time and has won 4 out 5 races this year. Last run was at Epsom in the English Derby with a terrible start, he dwelt at the starting gate. He was push along to get towards the front but had nothing at the end. He lost a front shoe in the race. And with all those issues, he finished third. I look for a much better effort this time out and track condition favor him. The has produced 3 runners, all winners, and distances of 1 mile to 1 ½ mile.
ARM Holding International Stakes – Group 3 – 3 years and up - Saturday
A mixed of colts, geldings, fillies, and mares of all ages.
2 – Dawn Patrol – hasn't raced since October but won at maiden at 1 1/8 and won a 2-mile races (group 3) near the end of the flat season. They are starting him out shorter to start his season. He will most likely go to the rear at the start of the race, begin to make forward progress at the 3-furlong maker and then he will be pushed to go. If fit, he should make a good account of himself.
21 – Roman Empire – should he have won last time? The steward didn't think so. At Royal Ascot. a good race vs a good horse (the favorite). He will try and make all the running in this race. I don't know his post position yet and that maybe key to getting the win. Form is not an issue and distance should be ok. Let's see what he can do against this group.
10 – True Self – won at first asking in February in a condition race at Saudi Arabia. She beat Channel Maker, the top turf horse in North America. Time off from that race, came back in May to run third in a group 1 event. She had no chance of catching the top 2 finishers. Now a run back at group 3 where he has won before. She been racing since 2016 in all kinds of races including hurdles (she has 2 wins). She has raced all over the world too. She has form but can she finish?
Alwasmiyah Pretty Polly Stakes – Group 1 – Restricted to Fillies and Mares 3 year and up - Sunday
We get a mix bag of horses here. Some coming from Royal Ascot and didn't fare too well to locals who have been training up to this race or one that last raced at Belmont Park.
5 – Thundering Nights – I decided that the Belmont run fits with this group of horses. She has 2 runs and finished second twice. Once in an open race (colts) and ran a second by ½ length to Broome who ran third at Royal Ascot. Then she raced at Belmont and ran second losing by a nose to Mean Mary (who's been very good). She has won at group 3 race last year but never higher. She like the distance, she run well at the Curragh and this maybe a nice spot to pick up at group 1 win.
1 – Cayenne Pepper – her first run of the year was just that, a first run. She was within reach of the leaders until she, with 2 furlongs to run, gave away. Fitness level? She won 2 group 3 races last year and ran in Breeder's Cup to finish 10th. She was not in the race. She has won at distance from 7 furlongs to 1 ½ miles. I think it's just a question of fitness and if she still wants to run. Did she peak last year?
2 – Epona Plays – 2 wins in a row group 3 and group 2 in Ireland. Her earlier wins were also in group company. In the last race, she was off good, joined the leader about halfway and when on strongly to be clear of the rest in the final furlong. She's never raced under 1 mile and has won at distance. This suits her and she will continue with good runs.
GAIN Railway Stakes
6 – DR ZEMPF
5 – CASTLE STAR
4 – CADAMOSTO
8 – GO BEARS GO
4 – HIGH DEFINITION
7 – MAC SWINEY
5 – HURRICANE LANE
2 – EARLSWOOD
Alwasmiyah Pretty Polly Stakes
1 – CAYENNE PEPPER
5 – THUNDER NIGHTS
8 - SHALE
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