Horseplayers will learn more than a few things from jockey Sophie Doyle.For example, she notes horses with weight allowances are strong plays, especially around two turns. Sophie provides detailed insights for her mounts at Prairie Meadows on Saturday July 3, 2021, including the Iowa Distaff and Iowa Sprint Stakes, along with races 5 and 10.Sophie likes her chances in all four spots, including a few with nice prices.As usual, Terry, Tom, Shawn and Rich share their picks.Make sure you follow Sophie Doyle on twitter (1) Sophie Doyle (@sophiedoyle77) / Twitter
"Hollywood" Hay's Handicap
#2 Back the Blue and #6 Shweet Persuasion will go to the front. #1
Domikate will close from deep and catch the leaders and win.
#1 – Domikate has the best dirt speed among today's
starters. In addition, she has the highest last race speed rating in the race.
#6 – Shweet Persuasion likes the distance and track. During
his career he has finished in the money 43% of time, winning 27% of those
entries. He has a hot Trainer/Jockey combo in last 14 days (12 5-1-2).
#2 – Back the Blue was claimed before his last race and had
a jockey change to Sophia Doyle. It appears that they used a different running
style and won the race. He can go to the front and lead all of the way again.
#1 Himiko will go to the lead and try to go all the way. #3 Istan
Council will be just behind the leader and close at the end winning. #5 Blessed
Again will close from deeper at the end and get into the exotics.
#3 – Istan Council lost all chance in her last race when she
was bumped and rank into the first turn. She has Sophia Doyle in the irons who
rode her last December and only lost by a neck. She has four bullet works in a
row and with Sophia riding I think she may win.
#5 – Blessed Again is against a lot of speed in the race
that allows her to try and win using her closing skills. She has several nice
workouts and a great trainer/jockey combination.
#1 – Himiko won her last race at Churchill Downs and
stretches out in today's contest which should be a benefit. During her career
she has finished in the money 75% of time, winning 38% of those entries.
#1 Special Reserve and #7 Quick Tempo will go for the lead. #6 Empire of
Gold and #3 Greeley and Ben will sit just behind the leaders and will close at
the end to try and win the race. #3 Greeley and Ben will outrun #6 Empire of
Gold to win.
#3 – Greeley and Ben is going up in class but I love to play
horse climbing the class ladder. He has finished 76% of the time in the money
during his career, winning 52% of those races. He is going for his fifth win in
a row and has a high percentage trainer of - (Karl Broberg) and jockey - (Elvin
#1 – Special Reserve is in top form winning three out of
four starts in 2021. He's coming in from Pimlico and dropping in class for
#7 – Quick Tempo likes today's distance winning twice in two
starts. He's returning after a six-month break but has several good works in
preparation for his return to the races.
#6 – Empire of Gold shortens up after leading most of the
way and fading to third in his last race at 6-1/2 furlongs. He has been having
a good year finishing 75% in the money, winning 25% of those races.
#4 Heritage Park, #5 Data Storm and #7 Drill's Li'l Man will go for the
lead. #1 Sun Squall will sit just behind the leaders and will close at the end
and get into the exotics.
#4 – Heritage Park has the highest speed figure at today's
distance and in addition he has the fastest dirt speed among today's starters.
He has finished 100% of the time in the money during this year, winning 50% of
those races. Sophia Doyle returns to ride after winning the last race on
#1 – Sun Squall has been having a good year finishing 75% in
the money, winning 25% of those races. He will be closing with a rush from deep
and should get into the exotics.
#7 – Drill's Li'l Man has the best last race speed rating,
and he has a high percentage trainer - (Lynn Chieborad) and jockey - (Alex
Birzer). He won easily in his last race at Prairie Meadows.
#5 – Data Storm has won two races in a row and is now going
for a Hat Trick. His early running style should benefit him.
Play: $.50 Pick 3-Cost: $9.00
1, 2, 6
1, 3, 5
Play: $.50 Pick 3-Cost: $30.00
1, 3, 5
1, 3, 6, 7
1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Play: $.50 Pick 3-Cost: $40.00
1, 3, 6, 7
1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Race 10: 1, 4, 5, 7
Play: $.50 Pick 4-Cost: $24.00
1, 3, 5
1, 3, 6, 7
Army Shawn's Selections
I see two horses in here going for the lead both from the outside #5
Iowa Native and #6 Shweet Persuasion. The #2 Back the Blue would be the only
other horse to show some speed. I think the #6 gets the lead. The #1 Domikate
will be the one who will be making up the most ground late from the back.
#6 Shweet Persuasion- Two races ago he gets claimed by Karl
Broberg for 12.5k who moves him up to 15k and he wins. Now Broberg moves him
down to 10k and stretches him out from 6 furlongs to 1 mile a distance in which
this horse has won 3 of 5 races. The 10k claiming is the lowest level this
horse has been in for a year. His speed should be really effective in this
#1 Domikate- Another Karl Broberg horse this one will be
coming late. He has finished in the exacta in 11 of 24 career Prairie Meadows
races. The veteran of the group as this will be his 70th career race. Has only
one 1 of 18 races the last 2 years hard to take at the ML odds of 2-1.
#2 Back the Blue- Jumping up in class but did win last race
and should be close to the pace in this race from the beginning.
$20 win 6
$5 Exacta 6/1
I see one of two horses getting the lead here #1 Himiko or #4 Josie. The
#3 Istan Council will be close behind one or both of these horses.
#4 Josie- She has won 2 of her last 3 races after winning
only 1 of her first 10. If you take out her one turf start, she has finished in
the exacta 7 of 12 races. She is a very versatile horse, but I think here it
would be better to be close to the lead.
#1 Himiko- This horse has faced a lot tougher. She is
stretching out as she has never gone any further then 7 furlongs. Should be
close to or on the lead from the beginning of the race.
#3 Istan Council- 0 for 9 the last 2 years. Does well to be
around at the end to be in the trifecta as she has been in it 12 of 22 career
$20 win #4
$1 trifecta 1,4/1,4/2,3,5
Lots and lots of speed in this race. Every horse in this race has some
history of getting out to the front. Whoever can be the one to sit off the pace
and close could be your winner.
#5 Mojo Man- I think this is the horse that has some history
of being able to close. He has won 7 of 18 races at this distance in his
career. Martin Garcia has won 2 of 4 races while aboard this horse.
#7 Quick Tempo- Has won 3 of 5 career races with a second.
The only race outside the exacta was on turf. He is 2 for 2 at this distance.
He has had off for 6 ½ months. He has been working out really well. Nice ML
price at 12/1
#1 Special Reserve- Has won 3 of his last 4 races. The only
horse in this race with a triple figure Beyer figure which was last time out a
100. Great connections Junior Alvarado and Michael Maker.
$20 win #5
$1 Exacta Box 1,5,7
RACE SUMMARY: Again, a bunch of speed in here
the only horse that wants to be far off the pace would be the #1 Sun Squall
which could play well for him to get in the exotics.
#4 Heritage Park- Has won 3 of his last 4 races. He has won
4 of 9 races at this distance. Likes Prairie Meadows in two starts has a win
#1 Sun Squall- With so much speed and this being the only
closer I would think this horse finds a way in the exotics. He has finished 2nd
2 out of 3 races at Prairie Meadows. In 5 out of 8 races so far this year he
has been in the exacta. Was just claimed by Kelli Martinez and her husband
Armando will be aboard.
#7 Drill's Li'l Man- Has a nice spot to be on the outside of
all the speed to see what they do. Third
race in a row at Prairie Meadows and so far has had a first and second.
$15 win 4
$3 exacta 4,7/1
They open the gates and Iowa Native, Shweet Persauasion and
Back the Blue break for the lead with the rest of the field within 3 lengths of
each other, front to back. About have way down the back stretch, Munnycanbuymelove
and Domikate bring their forward progress and picking up the leaders. Shweet
Persauasion digs in and the other give way. Who wins?
#4 – Munnycantbuymelove – drops into a state bred race after
racing vs optional claimers and claimers. Claimed for 5k at Houston, he has won
one race for the new connections. All of this horse's wins have been at the
1-mile distance, last race was too long? He's always between running the 2 turn
mile races. The trainer and jockey have not won at race together in three tries
and not the highest win percentages for the trainer. I like the angle of first
time in vs. state breds.
#1 – Domikate – Karl Broberg has 2 entries in this race, and
I prefer this one. He has 2 good races over the track. He's won 6 times but
likes to finish in the money too. This 9-year-old still has some kick left in
him. He will need to be within 3 lengths of the leaders to have a chance.
#3 – That's What I Say – he has raced vs state breds most of
his career. He's tried various levels from claimers to restricted allowance
races. He was over his head in the last 2 races and needed a start in his
season debut. Back with state claimers, he has a good chance here.
There appears to be a lot of early pace in this race and
everyone but Blessed Again may try for the lead. The Himiko and
Tillingatwindmills will be out front. The others will settle into position with
some cover. Moving on the backstretch, Josie will be moved up quickly for the
lead and press the pace with Istan Council right on her heels. Who wins?
#3 – Istan Council – Larry Jones knows how to prepare
horses, ship them in and win. She lost all chances in her last race at
Churchill with a hard bump at the start and looked out of sorts for the first
part of the race. Tossed it out. She looked better in her last race at Oaklawn.
She hasn't won in the last 2 years, but she's also faced some pretty good
horses. I think she needs a good start, some racing lucky and a strong finish.
Her last 4 works are all bullets and running 5 furlongs at :59 and change.
Sophie Doyle has ridden her before at Remington and she lost by a head in one
of her better efforts. Let's look for a price.
#5 – Blessed Again – the first start for her new trainer,
she won. That was last time out at Prairie Meadows. In the comment line "Full
of Run". She won at 1 1/16 before and has four starts at Oaklawn with 1 second
and one third in 4 tries. Maybe the food is better in this barn?
#1 – Himiko – should be the post time favorite. Switch from
Bob Baffert, she appears well placed by Steve Asmussen for a win here. My only
questions about her fitness because the works are not great, and she is trying
2 turns for the first time. She's bred for it, and she wasn't a cheap purchase
at $1 million. So, they are trying something different. I can't put her on top
of my betting ticket.
We got some sprinters that can move and move quickly from
the starting gate. Quick Tempo goes for the lead and then fades a bit with
Special Reserve, Mr Jagermeister, Empire of Gold and Keller's Gold fighting it
out. Some early pace from Greely and Ben with Mollies Rocket and Mojo Man
showing interest on the backstretch. On the turn, Empire of Gold get first jump
(or already has the lead) and move up quickly with other following but...
#6 – Empire of Gold – dueled and dueled in his last race at
Lone Star and that took it out of him, finishing third back 7 3/4. He's faced
much better than this group (and some of the same horses) but can't again get
pressed in most of the early part of the race. If he runs his races like at
Oaklawn, he wins. He lost to Whitmore and CZ Rocket, I don't see them here
(Saratoga Yes). He has trouble trip at Churchill too. His last 2 races did not
show he's best. Let's hope the "real" Empire of Gold shows up here.
#7 – Quick Tempo – power works at Arlington including a
blowout for this race of :34 breezing. He hasn't race since December at
Fairgrounds but has plenty of speed to make an impact. Interesting that he is a
3-year-old running against older horses and I think that sprinters it doesn't
matter as much as it does with distance dirt horses. Turf is a whole different
matter. Good works, good overall races (toss the turf adventure, he's not bred
for it). He will make his season debut in this stake's race and finish in the
#5 – Mojo Man – he had won 7 out of his 8 wins at 6
furlongs. He has run against some the same horses in this race and has faced
much better ones too. He had his adventures too in the Churchill race with a
bump at the start and then started to move late. Not his normal running style.
For me, he finishes in the money.
Breaking for the lead will be Heritage Park and Data Storm.
Right behind will be Take Me Up Brady and Mr. Shapoor and the others will
settle into the race with Sun Squall trailing. Moving to the turn, Heritage
Park will move away with Revival and Drill's Li'L Man improving. Top of the
stretch it's a 3-horse race.
#6 – Mr. Shapoor – big win last time at 30k even with some
trouble getting out of the starting gate. He's 2 for 4 at Prairie Meadows and
can sit off the leader to win. He faced similar last time out in the claimer
and now moves to allowance nw2/nw1 other than. If he retains form, he wins.
#7 – Drill's Li'L Man – Alex Birzer took this mount instead
of my top choice. He's won on both horses but rides more for Lynn Chleborad
with the last 60 days of a 33%-win rate and 78% in the money finishes from 18
mounts. Move up from starter allowance races but has the speed to compete and
will have a good chance here.
#2 – Take Me Up Brady – good last out at 40-1 vs state
breds, now move to open company with a chance based on last race being the
first start of the year. I am just looking for that in the money result with a
9 out of 16 races at Prairie Meadow. That works for me.
1 - Domikate
6 - Shweet Persuasion
2 - Back the Blue
4 - Munnycantbuymelove
5 - Blessed Again
1 - Himiko
3 - Istan Council
4 - Josie
3 - Greeley and Ben
1 - Special Reserve
7 - Quick Tempo
5 - Mojo Man
4 - Heritage Park
7 - Drill's Li'l Man
5 - Data Storm
1 - Sun Squall
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